Monday, January 6, 2020

Venezuela's opposition blocked from National Assembly (Jan. 6, 2020)

Venezuela's already pronounced political crisis worsened dramatically yesterday, as Nicolás Maduro's government attempted to wrest control of the National Assembly from opposition parties. Maduro-loyal security forces surrounded the building yesterday, and prevented opposition lawmakers from reelecting Juan Guaidó to head the National Assembly, the post from which he claims interim-presidency of Venezuela. 

Maduro-loyal and dissident opposition lawmakers chose a dissident opposition lawmaker, Luis Parra, to head the congress, a move denounced by critics as a "parliamentary coup d'état." Parra, one of several dissident opposition lawmakers accused of receiving bribes as part of an attempt to thwart Guaidó's reelection, is believed to have received at least 40 votes from Maduro-loyal and dissident opposition lawmakers. But there is no record of the actual vote. Photographs from inside the chamber showed mostly empty seats, reports the Wall Street Journal.

"Because the session was held without the legal quorum needed, the proclamation lacks democratic and constitutional legitimacy," the Washington Office on Latin America noted in a statement yesterday.


The day was marked by drama -- an security forces selectively allowed Maduro loyal lawmakers to enter the building and blocked Guaidó an his supporters. National Guard vehicles and a human cordon of security forces blocked Guaidó's entrance, and that of journalists, reports Efecto Cocuyo. Video footage released by the opposition showed Guaidó attempting to climb over a spiked metal fence to gain entry to the building where the vote would be held. Blocked from the National Assembly, Guaidó -- who is recognized by 60 countries as Venezuela's legitimate leader -- convened 100 lawmakers in a local newspaper office, where they unanimously reelected Guaidó to head the National Assembly. The 100 votes represent the majority of the 167-seat chamber.

As the New York Times notes: "The country already had two men who claim to be its rightful president and two rival legislatures. Now, one of the legislative bodies has two competing leaders." The dramatic events of the day "marked a sharp escalation in Maduro’s gambit to end Guaidó’s quest to unseat him," reports the Washington Post.

Maduro celebrated Parra's election, calling it "a rebellion from within the Assembly. 


The Lima Group rejected the National Assembly's election of authorities yesterday, and particularly condemned the use of force to stop lawmakers from accessing the building. (EFE)  The OAS and the United States joined the chorus of condemnation, and said they will continue to consider Guaidó the country's legitimate leader. Argentina did not join the general Lima Group statement, but separately condemned the use of force to prevent lawmakers from entering the National Assembly building and called on Maduro to allow lawmakers to choose their leadership with "total legitimacy." (Página 12, Efecto Cocuyo) Mexico also criticized the National Assembly divide, calling for democratic election of authorities. (Efecto Cocuyo)

Maduro's latest move is unlikely to have any international support, but could provide cover for countries seeking to withdraw support from Guaidó, according to the Washington Post.It will also have the effect of further complicating an opposition increasingly divided, a year after rallying around Guaidó. (See last Thursday's briefs.)

Nonetheless, some argue that the push could strengthen Guaidó, whose push against Maduro lost steam in recent months. Maduro's move against Guaidó shows that he is threatened by his challenger, writes James Bosworth on Twitter. In a similar vein, Christopher Sabatini told the Guardian that Maduro’s “brutal and ham-fisted” move could backfire by “re-legitimizing” Guaidó as a “democratic martyr."

Parra, who as recently as November opposed Maduro, demonstrates the growing divisions among opposition parties that seek Maduro's ouster but have grown frustrated with Guaidó's stalemate, according to the WSJ.

In a post from before yesterday's events, David Smilde argues that merely securing leadership of the National Assembly is not enough for the opposition this year, ahead of legislative elections.  "A sober reading of political conditions would suggest the opposition coalition needs to come up with a clear and unified strategy for going to legislative elections." (Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights)

News Briefs

Peru
  • Peruvians head to the polls on January 26 in an anticipated election to renew Congress, which President Martín Vizcarra shut down last year after a polemic stand-off. (See post for Oct. 1, 2019) 21 political parties are participating, and hundreds of candidates were struck down by the electoral tribunal, many for failing to declare criminal or civil sentences. (El Comercio, El Comercio)
  • Citizen disinterest is high, and polls predict a fragmented congress, with a slight majority for the Acción Popular party. Fujimorista forces will be less than currently, but still significant, at about 30 percent, according to a December IPSO poll. (Peru 21)
  • A European Union mission began an electoral observation process last week, and are coordinating with the electoral tribunal to monitor local campaigns. (El Comercio, EU Reporter)
  • Peruvian prosecutors are seeking a 12-year prison term for former lawmaker Kenji Fujimori on charges of attempting to buy legislative votes as part of a plot to keep then-president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski from being impeached in exchange for pardoning Fujimori's father, former president  Alberto Fujimori. (AFP, see post for Jan. 2, 2018)
Bolivia
  • Bolivia will hold a new presidential vote on May 3, after a contested October vote ended in the ouster of President Evo Morales. The new head of Bolivia's electoral tribunal told the Washington Post that the body is working to fix problems with vote counting and the computer system that the Organization of American States says allowed previous elections to be manipulated. Bolivian lawmakers passed a law regulating new elections that bars both Morales and interim-president Jeanine Áñez for running. Morales is in Argentina and said he will run his party's campaign. Ánez's government has been accused of politically persecuting Morales' supporters and of fomenting security force violence against protesters.
Climate Change
  • The monarch butterfly, which migrates between central Mexico and the northern U.S. and Canada, could soon be decimated by climate change. (Washington Post)

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...
  

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