Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó flew back to Caracas yesterday. He was met at the airport by a contingent of diplomats from the region and France, Germany and the U.S., aimed at shielding him from arrest. Guaidó has been recognized as interim leader by a portion of the international community, including the United States. He was greeted by cheering supporters at the airport and spoke at a rally in Caracas afterwards. (New York Times)
Venezuela's embattled Maduro administration threatened to detain him for flouting a travel ban, but held off -- at least for yesterday. Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez said the administration wants to avoid martyrizing Guaidó. But analysts say the government may also recognize the potential for violent escalation of tensions if Guaidó is arrested.
Guaidó's entrance through the "front door" weakens Maduro's position, and could indicate dwindling support for the government in the military, reports the Guardian. Though the armed forces have remained largely loyal to Maduro, 700 troops have defected according to Colombian authorities. And it is believed that soldiers would be reluctant to use lethal force against protests.
Political analyst Luís Vicente Leon told the Wall Street Journal that the return could be part of a behind-the-scenes deal between the opposition and the government, possibly with the support of European nations working towards a negotiated solution to the crisis. Opposition sources denied such deal.
The International Contact Group, established by the European Union, aims at bringing about a negotiated solution. But a recent mission to Caracas found that neither the government nor the opposition is prepared to talk, effectively stalling the approach which aimed to bring about elections within three months, write David Smilde and Geoff Ramsey in a report for Fundación Carolina. "However, given the likely failure of the Venezuelan opposition’s current strategy, the lack of international support for military action, and the fact that dialogue without preconditions is simply a non-starter for the opposition, it seems likely that the ICG could become an attractive option for Venezuela’s political actors and international stakeholders."
In the meantime, both sides are betting on waiting, a stalemate that is harmful for everybody involved, warns the Crisis Group in a new report arguing for a negotiation mediated by a third-party, aimed at moving towards new elections with a mixed transitional government cabinet in the meantime.
Democratization will require uncoupling the military from Maduro, but that will be tricky because disparate groups within the armed forces, each of which will need a specific policy to sway them from government loyalty, writes Javier Corrales in a New York Times op-ed.
More from Venezuela
- Digital media outlets servers for Efecto Cocuyo, El Pitazo y El Cooperante were attacked yesterday and kept offline for two hours -- exactly when Guaidó returned to Venezuela. It's only the latest of a series of attacks on social media and independent media: Twitter and Soundcloud (used by Guaidó to send messages to the public) were at least partially blocked in relation to protests yesterday. YouTube, Google y Facebook have been intermittently blocked since Feb. 23, and Armando.info has been blocked since Sunday. (Efecto Cocuyo, Hat tip Arepita.)
- Russia is helping Venezuela's embattled petroleum industry circumvent the impact of U.S. sanctions, reports Bloomberg.
- The Trump administration estimates that sanctions will cost the Venezuelan economy $11 billion -- but it needs to come up with a backup that will avoid starvation in the country, argues Dorothy Kronick in the New York Times.
- Venezuela's opposition asked a U.S. federal appeals court to stop a $1.4 billion debt-collection lawsuit, saying that carving up the country's foreign assets will hinder regime change, reports the Wall Street Journal.
- Why is the U.S. Trump administration concerned over dictatorship in Venezuela and not so much elsewhere in the world? The Monroe Doctrine. (Washington Post)
- Proceso analyzes some of Guaidó's strategic errors so far, including a close rapport with the U.S. that feeds into critics' arguments that he's an imperialist stooge.
News Briefs
Honduras
- Four human rights defenders were killed in Honduras in February -- two of whom should have benefitted from special protection measures ordered by the IACHR, reports the Honduras Forum Switzerland in it's monthly human rights report.
Argentina
- The case of an 11-year-old girl denied an abortion in Argentina made headlines around the world. (See last Thursday's briefs.) But it's just one example of how anti-choice doctors, medical institutions, and government officials routinely block cases in which girls and women are denied legally sanctioned abortions, reports the Guardian. Pro-choice activists say instances of preventing rape victims from terminating pregnancies have been emboldened by last year's failure to pass a widely debated abortion law.
Ecuador
- Rape is not a legal justification for terminating pregnancy in Ecuador, but the national assembly is debating a bill that would on decriminalize abortion in cases of rape, incest and forced artificial insemination. (Reuters)
Migration
- Migrant women trying to cross into the U.S. along the country's southern border are frequently victims of unreported sexual abuse. A New York Times investigation said interviews "suggest that sexual violence has become an inescapable part of the collective migrant journey." And much of it happens on the U.S. side of the border.
Mexico
- Mexico's government plans to shift funding from women's shelters to direct payments to victims of domestic violence. Activists are up in arms over the proposal, which they say will unravel significant civil society work and could imperil women in abusive situations. (Guardian)
- An indigenous group of Tecoltemi villagers, in the Mexican state of Puebla, have legally challenged the country’s mining law - which gives priority to mining activities over other land use. A landmark decision is expected this week on the law's constitutionality, reports Reuters.
- Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s slashed Mexican ratings on Monday -- a move President Andrés Manuel López Obrador characterized as punishment for his predecessors' neo-liberal policies. (Reuters)
- Three months into AMLO's mandate, the president's approval rating is at 78 percent. (Reuters)
Haiti
- Haiti's political crisis has corruption at its center, but the Petrocaribe scandal-spurred movement demands change and could become a turning point for the country, argue Athena Kolbe and Robert Muggah at NPR.
Guatemala
- A CICIG investigator resigned after photos linked him romantically to Byron Lima Oliva's widow. (Soy 502)
Brazil
- Brazilian mining giant Vale SA fired an auditor last year who refused to certify the safety of the Brumadinho tailings dam that broke in January, killing over 300 people. Vale replaced the auditor with TÜV SÜD, which signed off on the dam's stability in September, reports the Wall Street Journal.
- President Jair Bolsonaro's rise to power has been accompanied by a surge of threats and illegal incursions on indigenous lands in Brazil, reports Reuters. (See yesterday's briefs.)
- One of Rio de Janeiro’s top samba schools and other groups payed tribute to Marielle Franco, a councillor who was assassinated last year, in the carnival parade. (Associated Press)
- Rio's carnival parades in pictures at the Guardian.
- Tired of the Sambadrome? Atlas Obscura paints a seductive portrait of Rio's alternative: the elaborate and scary Bate-Bola troupes with pre-Celtic origins.
Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...
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