Monday, March 11, 2019

#Apagón (March 11, 2019)

Venezuela is struggling through a fourth day of power outages that have affected much of the country -- though lights started flickering on in some areas over the weekend. The government blames U.S. sabotage, while the opposition says 21 people have died as a result of the blackout -- six of them infants. (Guardian) The impact could severely worsen the humanitarian crisis the country is already facing, reports the Wall Street Journal.

While some members of the government said the problem was largely resolved, residents in areas around the country contradict that narrative -- Efecto Cocuyo has details and reports on an electrical transformer explosion in Baruta. It is not clear when the Guri hydroelectric dam that caused the outages will be back online -- brain drain has contributed to the technical problems it faces -- and workers at the affected electricity plant were told to stay home today, reports the New York Times.

Citizens are struggling to find food and water, while hospitals are essentially paralyzed, reports the Washington Post. And there are fears that complications could spur unrest that would be repressed by security forces. There were reports of looting in at least two states yesterday, reports the Guardian. Transportation and cell phone services have also been severely affected. Internet connectivity bottomed out at 2 percent at the worst part of the blackout, reports the Miami Herald. (Images from the Guardian and the Washington Post.)

Dueling demonstrations in support of presidential challenger Juan Guaidó or legitimacy-challenged President Nicolás Maduro jammed the streets of Caracas and other cities on Saturday, many walking for several hours as there was no metro service. Clashes between Guaidó supporters and police attempting to barricade the city center were reported, but anti-government protesters were eventually allowed to pass. (GuardianNew York TimesWashington PostEfecto Cocuyo)

Nonetheless, despite weeks of unrest Maduro's government has managed to stay in power, thanks to military loyalty. Experts are saying that the amnesty law opposition lawmakers are analyzing is insufficient to sway officers who are heavily implicated in illegal activity. (Washington Post and see last Tuesday's post.) As U.S. sanctions complicate the country's already weak economy, Venezuela's future may soon resemble that of Cuba, Iran, Syria or Zimbabwe -- countries where authoritarian governments have survived despite deep economic and political crisis, Luis Vicente León told the Washington Post.

However other experts -- including WOLA's Geoff Ramsey -- hypothesize that there is back-channel negotiations taking place between the dueling political factions, that could lead to a peaceful resolution. (Guardian)

The opposition-led National Assembly was scheduled to meet today, and Guaidó said he would ask lawmakers to declare a state of "national alarm." (Efecto Cocuyo)

More from Venezuela
  • Images from a few weeks ago of much needed food aid on fire seemed to symbolize Maduro's cruel stance towards humanitarian assistance. But it appears that a truck attempting to carry aid from Colombia to Venezuela was accidentally set alight by an anti-government protester's Molotov cocktail, reports the New York Times.
  • International commentary on Venezuela has been severely polarized over the course of the country's crisis -- WOLA responds to a group of academics who challenged the organization's support for a European Union led mediation effort.
News Briefs

Nicaragua
  • Nicaragua's opposition Alianza Cívica said it will not continue negotiations with President Daniel Ortega until the government frees political prisoners and stops repressive actions against activists. It was not clear whether the demand encompasses all of the 770 people considered political prisoners, reports the Associated Press.
  • The negotiations, announced last month, entered an impasse after Nicaragua's Episcopal Conference of Catholic bishops refused an invitation to act as witnesses to the dialogue process on Friday, reports Confidencial. (See last Friday's post.)
Colombia
  • Colombian President Iván Duque will ask lawmakers to revise legislation implementing the 2016 peace accord with the FARC -- specifically articles establishing a transitional justice system dubbed the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP). (Reuters)
  • Duque asked the country's constitutional court to revisit a 2017 regulating aerial dispersion of glyphosate in coca eradication. Expansion of the crop threatens to derail the country's peace process, said Duque, asking the court to loosen regulations of the herbicide which has been linked to cancer, reports Reuters. Duque's predecessor, Juan Manuel Santos, discontinued the practise due to health impacts. But manual eradication is both more expensive and less effective said Duque asking the court to expand his arsenal of policy responses. Both spoke last week before the Constitutional Court, reports the BBC. Several lawmakers spoke out against the proposal to resume use of glyphosate, reports Caracol. (More on glyphosate safety at El Espectador.)
  • The government argues that aerial eradication comes at a lower human cost than forced eradication, which has led to dozens of deaths and grave injuries. But that calculation focuses on eradication rather than crop substitution, explain FIP researchers in La Silla Vacía.
Guatemala
  • Former Guatemalan attorney general Thelma Aldana was nominated to run for president by Movimiento Semilla. Aldana focused her acceptance speech on the fight against corruption, which was a hallmark of her tenure as chief prosecutor, but also poverty, impunity and migration. Economist Jonathan Menkos, executive director of the Instituto Centroamericano de Estudios Fiscales (ICEFI) will be her running mate. (NómadaRepúblicaAssociated Press)
El Salvador
  • Salvadoran president-elect Nayib Bukeele has agreed to pay $50,000 to a former government minister who sued him for slander, reports the Associated Press.
Mexico
  • Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has promised to tackle the country's rampant fuel theft problem with tactics that seek to reduce violence rather than increase it, reports The Nation.
Migration
  • U.S. authorities secretly tracked activists, journalists, and social media influencers related to a migrant caravan of Central Americans last year. In some cases the government placed alerts on their passports, reports NBC. (See Feb. 11's briefs.)
Brazil
  • Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is preparing an overhaul of mining sector regulations that will include opening up indigenous reserves to mining, according to his mines and energy minister. (Reuters)
Peru
  • Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra will name actor and former culture minister Salvador del Solar as his new prime minister today, according to Reuters. Cesar Villanueva stepped down from the post Friday, amid calls for Vizcarra to shake up his cabinet and shore up popularity ratings, reports Reuters separately.
Cuba
  • Despite extraordinary foreign subsidies, the Cuban economy has performed terribly -- victim of an inefficient model of centralized planning. The only way out of the crisis is to deepen market-style reforms argues Carmelo Mesa-Lago in a New York Times Español op-ed.
Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

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