Six killed in Bolivian protests (Nov. 20, 2019)

At least six people were killed yesterday in Bolivia, and 22 more wounded, when security forces opened fire on protesters blockading the a gasoline plant in El Alto. (La Razón) The Senkata plant has become a battleground in the fight between supporters of the interim-government and those of former president Evo Morales, reports the New York Times. The armed forces said they were responding to protesters who breached the walls of the plant with dynamite, but at least two of the victims were simply walking to work when they were shot, according to their families.

Activists and human rights groups have objected to a decree from last week by the interim government shielding security forces from criminal prosecution when maintaining public order -- since then nine people were killed in clashes with security forces on Friday in Cochabamba, and 122 were wounded, in addition to yesterday's deaths. “We are extremely concerned by measures taken by Bolivian authorities that appear to prioritize brutally cracking down on opponents and critics and give the armed forces a blank check to commit abuses instead of working to restore the rule of law in the country,” said José Miguel Vivanco, Americas director at Human Rights Watch. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights announced a work visit to the country for later this week. (Página 12)

In the midst of the violence, Morales suggested a compromise position in an interview with the Wall Street Journal: that he be allowed to finish out his term, and, together with the opposition, name a new electoral authority to oversee a en election to pick his successor. But analysts say such a solution is unlikely to fly.

Yesterday the government gave Bolivian lawmakers two days to evaluate a call for fresh elections, reports EFE. Congressional leadership of Morales' MAS party suspended sessions yesterday in order to strengthen a dialogue process mediated by the U.N. and the Catholic Church -- though no concrete advances were announced. Lawmakers are scheduled to hold a session today. (La Razón)

In the meantime, regardless of how she arrived in the office, Bolivian interim-president Jeanine Áñez "is turning Bolivia into a far-right military dictatorship," writes Gabriel Hetland in a Washington Post opinion piece. The regime’s vindictiveness, fomentation of racist speech and action, repression of political opponents, willingness to kill peaceful protesters, and flagrant dismantling of accountability mechanisms that protect human life and basic freedoms are deeply disturbing."

News Briefs

Haiti

• Five people were killed this week in anti-government protests that have been ongoing for two months in Haiti. Police clashed with protesters in Port-au-Prince, and three of the victims were allegedly shot by them, reports the Associated Press.

Migration

• A new Trump administration rule will allow the U.S. to send asylum seekers to Guatemala -- and eventually to El Salvador and Honduras -- under agreements brokered earlier this year with the Central American countries. The joint interim final rule by the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Justice goes into effect next month, reports Vox, and will establish a new screening process to determine whether the US or Guatemala will process migrants’ claims for protection. It will apply both to immigrants who show up at US ports of entry at the southern border and those who try to enter the country without authorization between ports of entry.

• The agreements are aimed at reducing the flow of migrants to the U.S., and requires people seeking protection to first apply for asylum in transit countries between their home and the U.S. Though DHS originally said only migrants who travelled through other countries on their way to the U.S. would be eligible, the new rule governing the Guatemala deal opens the door to virtually any migrant crossing the border—other than a Guatemalan national, or an unaccompanied child—to be sent to Guatemala instead, reports the Wall Street Journal. This change would mostly affect Mexican migrants.

• Buzzfeed reports that the first asylum seekers were scheduled to be sent to Guatemala yesterday, but that DHS officials were still scrambling to figure out critical details, including how those seeking protection would obtain shelter, food, and access to orientation services there.

• Evolving populations of asylum seekers at the U.S. border -- from Central American families, to rural Mexicans, to Brazilian and Chinese migrants -- reflect the tactics of international criminal organizations responding to policy changes, according to Border Report.

Nicaragua

• A group of mothers on hunger strike in Managua's cathedral were evacuated by the Red Cross, due to concerns of attacks by pro-government supporters. (Confidencial, Washington Post, see yesterday's post.) The group of Masaya hunger strikers remains in the besieged San Miguel Arcángel church, reports Confidencial separately.

• Human rights violations and the overall situation in Nicaragua since April 2018 have upset the "constitutional order" in the country, said an OAS commission this week that a recommended a General Assembly extraordinary session to address the issue. (Confidencial, Reuters)

• Yesterday the U.N.human rights office has called on Nicaragua to end its "persistent repression of dissent," reports Reuters.

Colombia

• Colombia will close its borders tomorrow, part of a series of measures aimed at containing mass protests planned for Thursday, reports the Guardian. Schools will be closed, and squadrons of anti-riot police were already stationed outside Bogotá universities. (See yesterday's post.)

Guatemala

• Guatemalan attorney general Consuelo Porras asked for Government Minister Enrique Degenhart to be ousted for disobeying a Constitutional Court order to transfer the budget for a national justice commission. The case is significant because it could set precedent for action against other government officials, including President Jimmy Morales, for disobeying Constitutional Court orders, reports Nómada.

Honduras

• High rates of impunity for sexual crimes in Honduras is a documented problem -- organizations of civil society are themselves struggling to respond to reports of harassment by leaders. (Contra Corriente)

Paraguay

• Repeated clashes between two criminal gangs in Paraguayan prisons this year has demonstrated how the country’s crack consumption challenges local penitentiary authorities. (InSight Crime)

Jamaica

• Motor vehicle deaths in Jamaica are increased, and experts point to a complicated set of factors behind "road madness," reports Global Voices.

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Latin America Daily Briefing

Nicaragua cracks down on hunger strikers (Nov. 19, 2019)

A group of women on hunger strike in a church, in protest over the detention of their children, has flared up into a new confrontation between Nicaragua's Ortega government and opposition activists. Seven women -- mothers of political detainees -- started a hunger strike yesterday in Managua's cathedral, which was then stormed by government supporters. The Managua group was in support also of another group of mothers that launched a hunger strike last week in Masaya. Security forces have blockaded them and cut off electricity and running water to the church. The situation as of this morning was desperate, according to Rev. Edwin Román, who is inside with the protesting mothers. “We are urgently denouncing that they want to break down the door. This is an SOS,” the priest said by phone to the Washington Post. (See also Confidencial.) 

The Managua group has also been isolated by security forces, who yesterday allowed over 100 government sympathizers in to harass the hunger strikers and the doctors assisting them, reports Confidencial. The church was vandalized and a priest and nun were hit, according to La Prensa. 

Yesterday, sixteen Nicaraguan opposition activists, including 13 social leaders who were arrested as they tried to deliver water to the Masaya group, were charged with allegedly transporting weapons. Civic leaders say the charges are bogus, aimed at quashing dissent. “The dictatorship is clearly imposing draconian sanctions to make sure that nobody crosses the line — not even the mothers of political prisoners who tried something so peaceful” to win their children's’ release, said José Miguel Vivanco, the director for Latin America at Human Rights Watch. (Associated Press, See Friday's briefs.)

Opposition leaders say Nicaragua is holding 138 political prisoners, after about 700 were released earlier this year. Dánae Vílchez writes in the Post Opinión about how the dictatorship has radicalized under the international radar.

Some analysts say that the new crackdown is spurred by fears of "Bolivia syndrome," reports Infobae.

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Colombia braces for protests, Thursday

Not that the Ortegas are the only ones wary about protest contagion -- in Colombia the government is concerned that a general strike called for this Thursday could morph into a broader movement akin to that in Chile. Already the calls for demonstrations  on Thursday have attracted a grab-bag of dissatisfactions from various sectors, including economic demands and concern over the mounting assassinations of social leaders. Opposition to privatizations and labor, pension, and tax reform head the agenda, which has gathered more than 40 organizations and includes indigenous groups, artists, students and unions. (Semana, Semana, Semana) 

The government has not released bills for the reforms protesters are opposing, and says there is no plan to increase the retirement age or lower the minimum wage. Interior Minister Nancy Patricia Gutierrez said yesterday that "false motivations for the call to strike" existed. The national government said it would authorize local authorities to adopt exceptional measures to contain protests on Thursday, reports Reuters.

But there's also an effort to win over hearts and minds: the Duque administration launched a media offensive urging citizens to contribute to Colombia by not striking. (Semana) Lest anybody miss the message, an ad juxtaposes images of violent protests with peaceful images of people working.

News Briefs

Bolivia

• Thousands of Bolivians protested against Bolivia's interim president Jeanine Áñez, yesterday. “Añez, you racist, the people don’t want you,” chanted indigenous supporters of former president Evo Morales. Demonstrations were peaceful in La Paz, though pro-Morales groups have called for a siege of the capital city. Police fired tear gas at the protesters to keep them from entering the city of Cochabamba. Some farmers threw rocks at security forces and at least ten protesters were arrested. (AFP, Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

• Áñez cancelled a trip to her home province due to a credible threat against her life by a "criminal group," reports Reuters. Government authorities accused Venezuelans, Cubans, and Colombians of involvement, without providing evidence.

• Áñez claimed office promising swift elections -- and nothing else. But in the week since she declared herself Bolivia's interim president, she's "acted like anything but a caretaker," according to the Washington Post. Instead, "she’s been putting her own ideological stamp on South America’s poorest nation ..."

• Put more succinctly, the government represents a neoliberal economic restoration; political repression; social regression and return of racist elites; and subordination to the White House in foreign relations, argues Sacha Llorenti Soliz in a Post Opinión piece.

• Online, an army of Twitter bots is spreading confusion over what happened in Bolivia -- the Verge.

Chile

• Thousands of Chileans maintained ongoing protests yesterday, marking a month since massive demonstrations against inequality redefined the country's political paradigm. Protesters said they'd remain in the streets until the government meets specific demands for systemic change and improved social conditions -- despite a new agreement to kick off a process for a new constitution, reports Al Jazeera.

• That the government has opened the possibility of rewriting the constitution at all is "an astounding political acknowledgment of structural demands that have long festered unaddressed," according to the New York Times editorial board. Indeed, the demands for constitutional change have been loud and clear for years, but politicians failed to listen, writes María Jaraquemada at Americas Quarterly.

• A group of opposition senators will present a constitutional accusation against President Sebastián Piñera today, in relation to human rights violations committed by security forces in response to protests, reports Cooperativa.

Regional

• The OAS's response to the ongoing crises in Bolivia and Chile has been inconsistent, and demonstrates "ideological rifts and power politics," wrote Stefano Palestini Céspedes at the Aula Blog last week. The trend responds to an internal schism between a larger and stronger coalition of right-wing governments within the organization and a smaller and weaker one of leftist governments with an anti-imperialist or a non-interventionist rhetoric. "Breaches of democracy and human rights violations exist on both sides of the rift, but the OAS political bodies seem to focus only on the side that happens to be weaker," he writes.

• Speaking of bias, Glenn Greenwald sums up a media trend on coverage of the Bolivian crisis: “I think it’s amazing that U.S. media outlets just explicitly refuse to call it a coup and are going out of their way to say everything but, ... it just shows how in U.S. discourse, ‘democracy’ means putting a leader in place who serves U.S. interest, and ‘tyranny’ or ‘dictatorship’ means a leader — even if they’re democratically elected — who refuses to.” (The Intercept)

Venezuela

• A Miami professor specialized in organized crime, money laundering and corruption in South America was arrested in the U.S. on charges of laundering corruption proceeds from Venezuela. Bruce Bagley is accused of helping to launder $3 million in dirty money from Venezuela while pocketing about $300,000. The headline jokes have been many and predictable, but the statement from an FBI field office head is worth transcribing: "About the only lesson to be learned from Professor Bagley today is that involving oneself in public corruption, bribery, and embezzlement schemes is going to lead to an indictment." (Washington Post, Associated Press, Bloomberg) 

Brazil

• The Brazilian Amazon's deforestation rate shot up sharply over the past year, since President Jair Bolsonaro's election. Newly released government data shows a 30 percent increase in lost forest cover between August 2018 through July of this year. Activists say it is the direct result of Bolsonaro administration efforts to roll back environmental protections, through policy and rhetoric. (New York Times, Guardian)

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...  

Latin America Daily Briefing

Nine Bolivian protesters killed by security forces (Nov. 18, 2019)

At least nine people died in Bolivia on Friday, when security forces opened fire on pro-Morales protesters -- though the government only recognizes five deaths. Thousands of largely indigenous protesters, many coca leaf growers, had gathered peacefully in Sacaba there on Friday morning. But fighting began when many tried to cross a military checkpoint near the city of Cochabamba, where supporters of former president Evo Morales and his opponents have clashed for weeks. Pro-Morales groups are now demanding the immediate resignation of interim-president Jeanine Áñez and new elections within 90 days.

The Sacaba deaths threaten to push Bolivia into further instability, and undermines the interim-government's already tenuous claim to legitimacy. The Inter-American Human Rights Commission voiced concern over a decree by Áñez exempting the armed forces from criminal responsibility as they preserve public order -- it was signed on Thursday, the day before security forces opened fire on protesters.

The U.N. human rights chief Michelle Bachelet issued a statement Saturday calling the deaths “an extremely dangerous development.” She noted that “the country is split and people on both sides of the political divide are extremely angry. In a situation like this, repressive actions by the authorities will simply stoke that anger even further and are likely to jeopardize any possible avenue for dialogue.” The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights condemned what it called “the disproportionate use of police and military force” in the clash. Bolivia's Ombudsman's Office called for an investigation, and said it counted previous deaths since unrest began in Bolivia in the wake of Oct. 20's questioned elections.
 (Associated Press, Agencies, AFP)

Unrest has affected cities around the country. In the capital, La Paz, on Friday riot police fired tear gas at rock-throwing demonstrators. Food shortages are being reported in many regions. Yesterday the government said unrest had gone down over the weekend. (AFP) 

The debate over how to frame Bolivia's crisis has created a deep schism across the region -- and the legitimacy crisis has only deepened over the past week. It's not at all clear how the country will advance towards new elections that must be held, and though there have been attempts at cooperation between warring factions, divisions appear to be deepening. Áñez has not presented a concrete plan to hold elections, which are supposed to take place within 90 days. And has shown little enthusiasm for the task, according to the Guardian. In a swearing in ceremony yesterday she said there would be more information soon. Instead, she has embarked on a sort of purge of the government, including turning on Morales' international allies: Venezuela and Cuba. The new interior minister, the right-wing Senator Arturo Murillo, began by promising to hunt down Morales’s top former minister, Juan Ramón Quintana, who has gone into hiding, reports the New York Times. Yesterday government minister Arturo Murillo announced plans to publish a "list" of leftist lawmakers he said are guilty of "subversion." (Common Dreams) There are reports that journalists, including foreign correspondents, have been threatened, while members of Cuba's medical mission have been arrested, writes Guillaume Long in Al Jazeera.

MAS lawmakers called for a congressional session tomorrow, aimed at regulating new elections, but non-MAS lawmakers (former opposition, as La Razón calls them) said they will not participate. From his Mexican exile, Morales has argued that his resignation was never formally accepted by Bolivia's congress, and is thus not effective. 

A United Nations envoy, Jean Arnault, is reportedly trying to get both sides to a negotiating table that would be mediated by be mediated by the UN and the Roman Catholic Church, reports Al Jazeera.

The government announced an emergency plan to provide gas to La Paz. (La Razón)

Bolivia -- bigger picture

• The division between indigenous groups and their opponents is not to be underestimated, the New York Times has a good overview of that aspect of the conflict.

• It's necessary to understand how anger from Morales' his base regarding his reelection bid helped enable the extreme right-wing coup, writes Raúl Zibechi in an excellent piece. He looks at some of the ways social movements have already sought to protect the advances of Morales' administration, and how "the power of those from below impedes racist and patriarchal regimes from enjoying stability and longevity." Áñez faces the option of calling new elections or facing civil war, he warns. (Toward Freedom and Brecha)

• A useful lens for understanding the Bolivia crisis is that of pendular revolution and counter-revolution, argues Fernando Molina in a clear-eyed Nueva Sociedad addition to the massive international debate on how to characterize what's happening there. The "catastrophic tie" between "two social blocs, two types of elites, two geographic areas, two visions of a country that Bolivian leaders, engaged in win-win games, have not been capable of conciling and reconciling."

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Venezuelans also look to Bolivia

About 5,000 Venezuelan opposition activists demanded President Nicolás Maduro's ouster in a Saturday protest in Caracas. But turnout was less than expected by opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who hoped to capitalize on the situation in Bolivia to inspire a transition at home. Nonetheless, it was the opposition's biggest rally since May, after a failed uprising, reports AFP. "...A major uptick from the smaller-scale protests of recent months," reports the Washington Post.

The government also rallied supporters with the Bolivia narrative in a Saturday counter-march, with a call to reject "destabilisation attempts against Venezuela's government," reports Al Jazeera.

However, street protests alone are unlikely to force out Maduro, notes the Washington Post. Smaller protests have actually been ongoing throughout the year, mostly to demand economic improvements and better services such as water and electricity.

For many analysts, the key difference between Venezuela and Bolivia is the former's total cooptation of the military, while the armed forces proved key in ousting Bolivia's Morales. “If there’s a lesson from Bolivia, it’s that nothing can be done without the armed forces,” said Luis Vicente León, director of Caracas-based Datanalisis, a polling firm.

But there are other lessons to be gleaned from Bolivia, note David Smilde and Dimitris Pantoulas in Friday's Venezuela Weekly: "Venezuela commentators suggested another interpretation: that the sequence of events showed the wisdom of going to elections even when they are unfair, given their potential to unleash a sequence of events that can lead to a transition."

More Venezuela

• Maduro hailed the growth of transactions in U.S. dollars in hyperinflation-ridden Venezuela, calling it an “escape valve” that can help the country weather its economic crisis, reports Reuters.

• Lima Group countries met earlier this month and called for Cuba to be “part of the solution to the crisis,” reports the Venezuela Weekly.

• According to a research published by Amnesty International, Venezuela is the third country after Brazil and Mexico with the largest number of light weapons in the hands of civilians and one of the countries where the highest percentage of homicides are the product of gunfire. (Venezuela Weekly)

• A Reuters investigation documents witness accounts of how Venezuela's Special Action Force (FAES) carries out extrajudicial killings that are framed as self-defense. "The new reporting provides the deepest insight yet into the methods used by the force to snuff out perceived threats to Maduro’s increasingly authoritarian rule."

News Briefs

Regional

• Bolivia's crisis points to a troubling new tendency in the region towards a sort of tutelary democracy: "a system in which civilian authorities manage the daily business of government, but the military has definitive veto power and makes important decisions in the country," writes Gustavo Flores-Macías in the Post Opinión.

Ecuador

• Ecuador's National Assembly rejected a package of tax and monetary reforms proposed by President Lenín Moreno, yesterday. Several of the reforms were opposed by Ecuador's indigenous movement and social organizations, while others were opposed by the business sector. The rejection is another setback for Moreno's attempt to meet IMF requirements to lower the country's fiscal deficit. (Reuters)

Chile

• Chile's new agreement to have citizens choose whether and how a new constitution will be drafted (see Friday's post) offers a viable solution to the country's four week crisis, writes Patricio Navia in Americas Quarterly. Nonetheless, the road ahead presents significant obstacles, an eventual convention will have to build: "a consensus on specific details of the constitution – like the state’s power to nationalize mining or the powers and attributions of the constitutional tribunal ," he notes.

• Chilean President Sebastián Piñera acknowledged that police committed "abuses" in their response to protests, and that "there was excessive use of force." (BBC)

Colombia

• Former members of several Colombian guerrilla groups and paramilitary organizations met for the first time under the aegis of the country's Truth Commission, to talk about their participation in the country's decades-long armed conflict. (El Espectador)

Haiti

• Haiti needs international support to tackle an unfolding humanitarian crisis, President Jovenel Moïse told Reuters. He also said he was advancing towards a unity government in closed-door talks with civil society groups and the private sector, as well as radical and moderate members of the opposition. But prominent opposition leaders told Reuters they were not participating in the conversations and did not know of any significant figure or group that was.

• Hundreds of Haitian national police officers protested, yesterday in Port-au-Prince, demanding better work conditions and a union to represent and defend their rights. This is the second time in a month police have protested, reports Voice of America.

Migration

• Asylum seekers sent from the U.S. to Guatemala -- under a new migration agreement aimed at reducing petitioners in the U.S. -- could be sent to the remote Petén jungle region, reports the Washington Post. The plan amplifies concerns from critics, who say the migration agreement is basically a backdoor deportation channel that foists asylum seekers on countries too poor and dysfunctional to protect them.

Bahamas

• Hurricane Dorian caused an estimated $3.4 billion in damages in the Bahamas, equivalent to one-fourth of the country’s gross domestic product, according to a new report by the Inter-American Development Bank. (Miami Herald)

Mexico

• Armed groups in Mexico, like the one that grabbed headlines with the recent massacre of 9 women and children in the Sonora desert, are the result of the outsourcing of security by Mexico’s most dominant cartels, according to InSight Crime.

• One of Mexico's wealthiest businessmen, and a key private-sector ally of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is on a collision course with the government over a cancelled ride-hailing smartphone app contract, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Brazil

• Lula wants Brazil back, but it's not clear the feeling is mutual, according to the Washington Post.

Argentina

• Argentine president-elect Alberto Fernández promised to send an abortion legalization bill to Congress when he assumes office. Women's rights activists welcome the embrace of the cause, which narrowly lost in the Senate last year. Fernández was emphatic that it is a public health issue. (Guardian, full interview, in which he gives a number of future policy hints, at Página 12)

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...  

Latin America Daily Briefing

Chileans to vote on new constitution and who'll write it (Nov. 15, 2019)

Chile will hold a plebiscite next April, asking citizens whether they would like a new constitution and who should serve on the convention to draft it. The agreement was reached by lawmakers early this morning, and seeks to quell four weeks of intense unrest in Chile. The April referendum will propose three different models for a body to devise a new constitution, made up of either fully elected representatives, political appointees or an equal mixture of both. If elections to the body are needed, they will be held in October 2020 to coincide with regional and municipal ballots. Finally, citizens will vote on whether to accept the draft when that is ready. (Reuters, Al Jazeera, AFP)

The current charter  has been in force since 1980 and was enacted by the military government of Augusto Pinochet. Though protests don't have specific leadership and demonstrators have diverse complaints (inequality, low wages, high education and health costs, etc), a new constitution has emerged as a key demand for a broad swathe of the country's citizens.

More Chile

• Chilean singer Mon Laferte uncovered her chest emblazoned with the words "In Chile they torture, rape and kill" at the U.S. Latin Grammy awards' red carpet. (BBC)

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Bolivia's stability depends on cooperation

Ongoing protests against Bolivia's interim government have been concentrated in El Alto. (La Razón)

The United Nations has dispatched a special envoy to Bolivia, in response to a call from former president Evo Morales. The emissary will observe the crisis, establish contact with both sides to further a peaceful resolution, and assist with guaranteeing fair and transparent elections. (Al Jazeera, La Razón)

The narrative on Bolivia is shifting from whose fault it is -- the whole coup or not thing -- to how the power vacuum might most productively be filled. There is a general consensus that cooperation between Bolivia's warring factions will likely be key. In particular cooperation is necessary to legitimize new elections. And to avoid further radicalization.

Pacification will require a pact between Morales' MAS party and Jeanine Áñez's new interim government, writes Natalia Cote-Muñoz in Americas Quarterly. Cooperation will be made difficult by lack of clear leadership in Morales' absence, and the fractured nature of the anti-Morales camp. Áñez’s choice of cabinet showed no signs that she intended to reach across the country’s deep political and ethnic divide. Her senior ministers includes prominent members of the business elite from Santa Cruz, reports the Guardian. (See also yesterday's post.)

Yesterday Áñez said Morales and former vice-president Álvaro García Linera would not be allowed to run in new elections -- and that while MAS could participate, the elections will be held with or without them. (Telam) She also said that Morales is "inciting" Bolivians from his Mexican exile, and said the foreign ministry will present a formal complaint to Mexico. (La República)

In a positive sign, MAS and Morales-opponent lawmakers managed to agree on new Senate leadership yesterday, and named a MAS senator to lead the chamber. (La Razón)

 And Áñez and other anti-Morales leaders appear to have recognized that fanning anti-indigenous flames is a bad idea, according to the Economist. One police chief made a public apology after another video showed officers cutting the flag out of their uniforms. On Thursday Áñez swore in an indigenous woman, Martha Yujra as Culture Minister. Yujra kissed the Wiphala flag and promised to help pacify unrest in El Alto. (La Razón)

But it's not clear these gestures will be able to overcome a history of ugly antagonism, documented in their social media history, detailed in the Wall Street Journal.

News Briefs

Protests

• One of the lessons we can glean from Bolivia's ongoing crisis is that "the process of stopping semi-democratic leaders is likely to be semi-democratic as well," writes Javier Corrales in a New York Times  op-ed. "... the Bolivian case suggests that in situations where democratic backsliding is advanced and civil unrest on the rise, it is naïve to expect restoration to occur in a perfectly democratic fashion. Radicals will emerge and the military will likely play a part. ... The chance of escalation is high, and so is the risk of military involvement."

• Successful protest movements in one country galvanize demonstrations in others, writes James Bosworth in the latest Latin America Risk Report. The success of anti-fuel protests in Ecuador changed the regional narrative regarding protests, which were widespread in other countries, but failed to impact policy in Venezuela, Haiti and Honduras, he argues. "The significant successes in the protests in October and November is one reason protests are likely to continue and expand in other countries," he writes, pointing to Ecuador, Venezuela and Colombia as areas to keep an eye on.

• The outbreak of popular uprisings this year is already the region’s strongest and most widespread in decades -- but the Washington Post warns against calling it a Latin Spring, as " the actors and causes of the still-unfolding uprisings in South America are as varied as the countries themselves."

• An under-covered factor in demonstrations that have erupted around the world is domestic, rural-to-urban migration, argues Henry Carey in the Conversation. "All these capital cities gripped by protest have huge populations of desperately poor formerly rural people pushed out of the countryside and into the city by climate change, national policies that hurt small farmers or a global trade system that impoverishes local agriculture."

Nicaragua

• Thirteen activists were arbitrarily detained in Nicaragua, while taking supplies to a group of mothers protesting political detentions. The Unidad Nacional Azul y Blanco said police had corralled protesters inside a Masaya church, and cut off their supply of potable water and electricity. The activists detained in the night sought to assist the demonstrators in the church, reports Confidencial.

Migration

• The U.S. "Remain in Mexico" program is creating a new humanitarian crisis -- a former asylum officer said the policy is "clearly designed to further this administration’s racist agenda of keeping Hispanic and Latino populations from entering the United States." (Washington Post)

• Remain in Mexico, officially called the Migrant Protection Protocols, allows U.S. authorities to send asylum seekers to await court hearings in Mexico -- but it cannot be applied to Mexican asylum seekers. Possibly because of this, Mexico has outpaced the Central American countries of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador to become the largest single source of migrants taken into custody along the U.S.-Mexico border, reports the Washington Post.

• With the fifth Quito Process meeting ongoing in Bogotá, WOLA examines the current patchwork of regional responses to the estimated 5,000 people leaving Venezuela each day -- the piece looks at issues over the definition of refugee and insufficient funding. (Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights)

Venezuela

• The International Crisis Group spoke with politicians, activists and political analysts in favor and against Venezuela's government. Though the gap between the two remains very wide, they found "there are areas of common ground. Many people from both sides believe that the only peaceful way out of the crisis is through negotiations, and, just as importantly, both sides are willing to make concessions to that end."

Mexico

• Mexico's mediocre economic growth and its brutal violence are linked, argues Viridiana Ríos in a New York Times op-ed.

• Nearly a year into office AMLO has achieved surprisingly little progress in pushing his agenda, and has even failed to appease many supporters, writes Luis Rubio in Americas Quarterly.

• Americans accustomed to bluntness might be surprised at Mexican reticence to disappoint in social circumstances -- the Economist helps us understand why so many Mexican wedding guests are no-shows.

Haiti

• A man traveling from Miami with an arsenal of weapons was detained in Haiti's airport this week, reports the Miami Herald. The case highlights the situation of a country awash in illicit weapons: an estimated 500,000 illegal guns are in circulation despite a U.S. arms embargo, and heavily armed criminal gangs are exacerbating a political and economic crisis by barricading streets, hijacking vehicles and holding entire communities hostage.

Dominican Republic

• A U.S. citizen living in the Dominican Republic was found dead, dragging the country back into the international spotlight after several unexplained tourist deaths earlier this year, reports the Washington Post.

Jamaica

• The IMF does, on occasion, have happy endings, and Jamaica appears to be one. "But graduating with good marks from the imf is not the same thing as economic success," warns the Economist.

Argentina

• Argentine president-elect Alberto Fernández again backed calls to legalize abortion in Argentina, this time at a book presentation in Buenos Aires. (Clarín)

Sources

• El Times newsletter has a roundup of the New York Times' Spanish-language content, and the Opinión page is updating again.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...  

Latin America Daily Briefing

Who will write Chile's new constitution? (Nov. 14, 2019)

Clashes continued yesterday around Chile -- downtown Santiago has been described as "no-mans land" -- and observers say the clock is running out for an institutional solution to the weeks of conflict. (Wires)

Currently the debate centers around how to renew Chile's constitution: President Sebastián Piñera has proposed that lawmakers write a new constitution, which would then be ratified by citizens. Opposition parties and some protesters are demanding a plebiscite and a constituent assembly, which would allow broader citizen input to draft a new constitution. Neither side has fleshed out how the proposals would be carried out. (Associated Press)

A possible compromise option could be a constitutional convention, proposed by former president Michelle Bachelet in 2017, which could entail a mix of delegates and lawmakers, reports El País. The previous administration carried out a consultation process that could form a start to the new constitutionl

At least 22 people have been killed in the past four weeks of protests in Chile -- and 2,209 have been wounded, at least half by security forces who have been shooting rubber bullets, buckshot and tear gas canisters. At least 209 people have had eye wounds. The National Institute for Human Rights counts 6,046 detainees so far in relation to protests, and has gathered evidence of illicit arrests, beatings, torture and other violations of human rights during detentions. (EFE)

More Chile

• "Chicago Boy" policies drove down poverty in Chile, but increased inequality in durable ways -- Richard Davies in the Guardian.

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Áñez names cabinet, clashes in La Paz

Bolivia's interim leader, Jeanine Áñez, sought to shore-up her presidency yesterday in the midst of street battles between supporters of former president Evo Morales and security forces. Protesters carrying the indigenous flag were met by riot police, and the two sides engaged in brief confrontations, reports CNN. On the streets, police used tear gas to break up peaceful protest marches, reports the New York Times. 

 Movement For Socialism (MAS) lawmakers and senators, who hold a two-thirds majority, tried to hold sessions to declare Áñez’s claim to the presidency illegal and block Morales’s resignation. But police blocked about a dozen lawmakers allied with the former president from entering the legislature. MAS lawmakers ratified a party member as head of the lower chamber. (Guardian, Washington Post, La Razón)

Morales told reporters in Mexico City, where he was granted asylum, that Añez’s government was unconstitutional because the legislature had not approved his resignation.

Moving forward, quelling unrest  -- without a mass crackdown -- and organizing a credible election -- with MAS participation -- are the priorities for Bolivian stability, according to a new Crisis Group report. "The new caretaker president will need to avoid partisanship and contain the outrage of Morales’ support base, which is sizeable. It will not be easy."

So far there is little sign that things are headed in this direction: Áñez named a partial cabinet of 11 ministers, and said the transition would be aimed at "reconciliation." But the new appointments come firmly from the anti-Morales camp, and include the lawyer of Santa Cruz civic leader Luis Fernando Camacho. None of the new cabinet members are of Bolivia's indigenous community.  Last night Áñez replaced the commander of the armed forces, General Williams Kaliman. The new military commanders were sworn in with a bible, part of a marked return to religious symbols that had been withdrawn from government acts by Morales. (La Razón, La Razón, La Razón)

Indeed,  survey of Áñez's social media found older comments mocking indigenous practices, reports the Washington Post. And Camacho entered the presidential palace on Sunday with a bible the promise that the Pachamama will never return to government.Viral videos showed Bolivian security forces removing the Wiphala, the square emblem representing the indigenous peoples of the Andes, from their uniforms. (Washington Post, see yesterday's briefs.)

Authorities estimate a total of ten people have been killed in post-election unrest, eight by fire-arms. It's not clear how many victims were killed after Morales resigned on Sunday, but prosecutors identified at least two, reports EFE. At least 508 people have been wounded in clashes since the Oct. 20 election.

The Crisis Group report suggests that the European Union might be an acceptable mediator, as the U.S., the OAS and Brazil "are seen as biased against Morales." (Elegant turn of phrase.)

There is little cause to be optimistic, reports Foreign Policy, which notes that "not a single popularly elected Bolivian president since 2002 has handed over power peacefully to an elected successor. This history—and the current tumultuous state of Bolivian politics—suggests that the next elected president will likely face protests and be forced to resign as well."

More from Bolivia

• Morales' dramatic resignation and his flight to asylum in Mexico "have turned into something of a Rorschach test on the hemisphere’s politics," writes Ishaan Tharoor in the Washington Post. But in reality the case defies an easy political narrative, he notes.

• Evo Morales spoke with El País and called for dialogue and peace in Bolivia.

• International commentary is quick to point out the Morales government's flaws, but "it was his victories that fomented this most recent violent backlash," writes Nick Estes in the Guardian.

News Briefs

Venezuela

• A new Foreign Affairs anthology, The Collapse of Venezuela, "examines the failed policies that drove the country to disaster and the forces that have kept it in a state of emergency." It includes a piece by  Moisés Naím and Francisco Toro on the origins of Venezuela’s predicament and the difficulty of doing anything about it.

Regional Relations

• Venezuela's seat on the United Nations Human Rights Council does not invalidate the body's role as "an effective venue and voice for accountability for the most pressing human rights crises," argues Bruno Stagno Ugarte at Americas Quarterly. In fact, "serial abusers are interested in gaining a seat on the Council precisely because it is an effective body." The piece has some interesting insider information on how Brazil actually helped Venezuela gain the seat.

• A 12-hour stand-off between diplomatic representatives of Venezuela's dueling governments in the country's Brasilia embassy highlights the diplomatic pitfalls of the Venezuelan legitimacy crisis. (New York Times, Washington Post)

Brazil

• A five-year-old girl was killed walking to school in Rio de Janeiro yesterday, investigators believe she was caught in crossfire between warring gangs. She is the sixth child killed this year by a stray bullet. At least 21 children have been hit by stray bullets in 2019, 11 during police operations. (New York Times)

• Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's release from prison has rallied Brazil's left, and will likely further polarize the country. The battle between Lula and President Jair Bolsonaro will also further the cult of personality trait that negatively marks Brazilian and regional politics, writes Carol Pires in a New York Times op-ed. 

• Female gang members played an outsize role in recent murders carried out by the PCC, a sign that women can exercise positions of power within the violent criminal organization, reports InSight Crime.

El Salvador

• Salvador's constitutional court will likely extend a deadline for lawmakers to vote on an amnesty law that would prohibit jail time for former military personnel and leftist guerrillas accused of atrocities during the country's long civil war. The measure was postponed earlier this year in the midst of intense opposition from human rights groups, civil society, universities, the Catholic church and then-president-elect Nayib Bukele. (Diario de Hoy, El Salvador Perspectives, see May 24's post.)

Mexico

• Mexico’s new human rights commissioner questioned whether journalists have been killed under the current López Obrador administration -- 11 have been murdered since he took office. Her comments enraged activists in one of the most dangerous countries in the world for reporters -- 131 have been killed since 2000 -- and will likely further tense relations between the government and the press. (Guardian)

• Sensational reporting of Mexican violence contributes to justifying a new militarized crackdown, writes Oswaldo Zavala in a Post Opinión piece that urges the media to dig deeper in its coverage.

Migration

• Jared Kushner and other senior Trump administration officials are planning to set up web cameras to live-stream construction of a controversial border wall, reports the Washington Post. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and senior U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials have objected to the plan.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...  

Latin America Daily Briefing

Añez declares herself interim president (Nov. 13, 2019)

A second-tier political opposition leader claimed Bolivia's presidency yesterday. Jeanine Añez, sidestepped a lack of quorum in Bolivia's congress and declared herself Senate leader, and then, interim president. A military officer in camouflage pinned on the presidential sash and she greeted Bolivians from the balcony of the old presidential palace with a bible in hand. (Associated Press, Guardian, New York Times)

She was the highest-ranking politician in line of succession after former president Evo Morales resigned on Sunday, along with other top officials. Bolivia’s highest constitutional court issued a ruling that backed her assumption of power yesterday, but it's not clear she will be able to muster the necessary consensus to hold new elections within three months. Members of Morales' party, which holds a majority in congress said they would hold another legislative session today to nullify her decision.

Morales said on Twitter from Mexico that Añez’s “self-proclamation” was an affront to constitutional government. “Bolivia is suffering an assault on the power of the people,” he wrote.

Morales supporters protested in La Paz after Añez declared herself president. Police and soldiers fired tear gas trying to disperse the crowd and detained some demonstrators. Sporadic political violence and opportunistic looting continued yesterday, reports the New York Times, whose reporter "watched about 20 motorbike-riding civilians armed with metal pipes and chains travel out of Cochabamba’s main police station, as police officers saluted them and gave thumbs up on the way out."

Military jets flew at low altitudes over several areas of La Paz and El Alto yesterday, part of the armed forces' efforts to contain protests and contributing to tensions, reports EFE.

More Bolivia

• OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro threw the whole coup debate for a loop by insisting that Bolivia's armed forces acted correctly and that Morales carried out a coup when he "committed electoral fraud." In a polarized session yesterday, 15 OAS member states avoided calling Bolivia's institutional crisis a coup, and called for the rapid formation of a provisional government and rejected acts of violence. (El País)

• A CEPR report questions the OAS audit that found irregularities in the Oct. 20 election large enough to merit annulling the vote and holding a new election. (See yesterday's post.) 

• Morales' ouster was both "a military coup d’état and a moment of mass protest that unseated the government," writes Angus McNelly in the Conversation.

• The Nation explores how anti-Morales sentiment has generated an anti-indigenous backlash in Bolivia. (See yesterday's briefs.) Opposition leader Luis Fernándo Camacho, who stoked demands for Morales' resignation in recent weeks, entered the presidential palace on Sunday with a bible the promise that the Pachamama will never return to government. (La Jornada)

• Reports show that pro-Morales journalists were targeted by opposition groups during unrest over the past few weeks. This weekend Prensa Rural director José Aramayo was held hostage, tied to a tree in La Paz, by an anti-Morales group, reports Página 12.

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Chileans strike, keep protesting

Chile was brought to a virtual standstill yesterday by a national strike, which accompanied ongoing protests against social inequality. Eighty-thousand people protested in Santiago -- the gathering in Plaza Italia demanded further social reform and President Sebastián Piñera's resignation. Though the main march was peaceful, though there were clashes with police around the city and around the country. There were burning barricades in Santiago, and reports of looting and vandalism in the capital and other locations. Truck drivers and other protesters set up barricades on at least two major highways connecting Santiago with outlying cities and ports. Congress, which is based in Valparaiso, shut down for the day. (Reuters, Associated Press, Ambito, 

Piñera condemned new clashes between protesters and police yesterday evening, and said that those responsible would be prosecuted under the strict state security law that allows for tougher penalties. He also called on citizens to subscribe to three "social accords" aimed at defusing tensions, including a process to draft a new constitution. Protesters rejected Piñera's proposal as insufficient, and demand a constitutional assembly. (See yesterday's briefs.)

The unions on strike also presented demands related to wages, pensions, and union organizing, reports Al Jazeera.

Reports of excessive use of force by security forces are ongoing -- on Monday a police officer allegedly shot a university student in the face during a protest. "Chilean authorities continue to commit widespread human rights violations," said Amnesty International in a report yesterday, that reached the preliminary conclusion that "these are not isolated events and that they point to the regular and excessive use of force by the Chilean authorities." On Monday the Inter-American Human Rights Commission congratulated the Chilean people for their activism, and chided the government for its focus on material damages caused during the protests. (EFE, Jornada)

Chile's peso slid 4 percent, and reached a historic low against the dollar. Chile's finance minister warned of the "grave consequences" for the country's economy, reports Reuters.

As strikes and protests continue across the country, tens of thousands of people have attended spontaneous town hall meetings -- cabildos -- to seek a way out of more than a month of sometimes violent political unrest, reports the Guardian.

News Briefs

Regional Relations

• "... A Pink Tide 2.0 seems less likely than an increasingly Cold War-like atmosphere in a region that is already sharply divided over how to handle the crisis in Venezuela and the consequences of its colossal economic meltdown," writes Jon Lee Anderson in the New Yorker. But "it’s clear that, while the far right appears to be gaining strength again in Latin America, as it is in Europe, the left can’t be completely discounted. And neither can the military, which largely retreated to the barracks a generation ago, in the post-Cold War restoration of democracy across the continent, but in some countries has lately begun, if not to seize power outright, then to assume the role of institutional arbiter."

• By granting Evo Morales political asylum, Mexico's López Obrador administration has suddenly embraced a regional leadership it had been ducking since taking office a year ago, according to El País.

• The saga of how Morales and allies were actually transported from Bolivia to Mexico demonstrates the complicated regional scenario -- La Jornada and AFP.

• The U.S. cannot afford to ignore regional upheaval, and should be "drafting policies that help improve economic and political stability from Mexico to Venezuela," write R. Evan Ellis and Román D. Ortiz in World Politics Review.

Venezuela

• Venezuela's National Assembly completed the preliminary committee to pick a new electoral authorities -- the 11-member group of lawmakers (seven from the opposition, four loyal to the Maduro administration) is expected to start work today. (Efecto Cocuyo)

• National Assembly president and opposition leader Juan Guaidó went to work by subway, yesterday, in part raising awareness for a Nov. 16 anti-government protest he is organizing. (El Nacional)

• A group of Guaidó supporters occupied the Venezuela's embassy in Brasilia. (Associated Press)

• Venezuela's former military intelligence chief Hugo Carvajal has gone missing in Spain, days after local media reported a Spanish court had agreed to extradite him to the United States on drug trafficking charges, reports Al Jazeera.

Guatemala

• Guatemalan legislators voted to halve corruption jail terms for those who confess -- many of the lawmakers who voted in favor of the measure are themselves under investigation, reports the Associated Press.

Colombia

• Colombian President Iván Duque announced a cabinet shuffle: Carlos Holmes Trujillo will move from the foreign ministry to defense, left vacant last week after Guillermo Botero resigned in the midst of accusations of covering up minors killed in a military operation. Trujillo will be replaced by Claudia Blum, a former senator and United Nations ambassador, reports Reuters. (See last Thursday's post.)

Brazil

• Lula Livre is expected to invigorate Brazil's left-wing, but will he also united the country's far right?, asks The Nation.

• Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will quit his fractious right-wing Social Liberal Party (PSL) and start a new one by March 2020, reports Reuters.

Honduras

• Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández used at least 4 billion lempiras skimmed from public coffers and obtained from drug traffickers to finance his last presidential campaign, according to a ConfidencialHn investigation.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...  

Latin America Daily Briefing