More on Ecuador's upcoming election (Feb. 17, 2016)

Though Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa is not a candidate in this weekend's presidential election, few in the country believe he is exiting politics for good, reports the Wall Street Journal. He is expected to keep a hand in politics through his Alianza País movement, though voters are challenging the party's and are desirous of change. (See yesterday's post.)

"By any yardstick, Correa will be a hard act to follow.Despite his recent troubles, he remains one of Latin America’s most popular leaders," according to the Miami Herald.

Alianza País' candidate Lenin Moreno has political capital of his own, and a friendly style distinct from Correa's confrontational habits, reports the Herald.

Efforts to discredit the incumbent party ticket have focused on corruption allegations related to his running mate. Mark Weisbrot notes "that this has become the main tactic of right-wing parties in Latin America for several years now as they struggle to win back much of Latin America, and especially South America, which elected and reelected many left governments in the 21st century (e.g., Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Uruguay, Paraguay, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua)," in a piece in the Hill.

But while corruption ranks high amid Ecuadoreans' concerns, it's not clear how the issue will play out at the ballot box, according to the Herald. Polls show a significant number of Ecuador's 12.8 million voters are undecided, notes Reuters.

Correa leaves a difficult legacy for his successor, according to the Economist, which notes the difficulties of recession on the government's socialist spending. 

Wikileaks rereleased the content of U.S. diplomatic cables about the three lead candidates in the race, noting the opposition's frequent contact with U.S. officials, reports TeleSUR.

Speaking of Wikileaks, founder Julian Assange's fate also rests on this election: at least two candidates have said they'd evict him from the country's London embassy where he took refuge nearly five years ago, reports the New York Times.

A Monkey Cage piece by John Polga-Hecimovich in the Washington Post reviews the basics of the eight candidates, the electoral system and the issue of female representation in government.

News Briefs

• A day after U.S. President Donald Trump called on Venezuela to release jailed opposition leader Leopoldo López, the country's highest court passed down a ruling upholding his 14 year prison sentence for inciting violence in a wave of 2014 protests against the government, reports the Associated Press. The trial and conviction have been criticized by international rights groups. The ruling leaves López without national recourse, though he could take the case to international forums. (See yesterday's post.)

• After the Venezuelan government blocked CNN Español from local cable, the channel will be available via Youtube for Venezuelans looking for a fix, reports the BBC.

• Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami's designation by the U.S. as a drug kingpin this week is just the latest in a long string of officials linked to traffickings, reports the Guardian. The sanctions further take the wind out of the Venezuelan opposition's recall referendum initiative, as an ouster of President Nicolás Maduro would replace him with El Aissami, notes the piece. The sanctions invite international scrutiny of El Aissami, the son of Middle Eastern immigrants who went from being an unknown student leader to the country’s powerful interior and justice minister, according to the New York Times.(See yesterday's, Wednesday's and Tuesday's posts.)

• Venezuelan experts criticize the government's "blind" backing of El Aissami in Efecto Cocuyo.

• Venezuela's government "is boiling Venezuelans like frogs in the proverbial pot while buying time to survive until the 2018 presidential election," argues Daniel Lansberg-Rodríguez in a New York Times op-ed. But such an approach would be impossible in the midst of the country's crisis without the continued support of China. Lansberg-Rodríguez analyses the relationship of the two countries, which goes beyond the convenience of oil, and includes a shared commitment"to national sovereignty and the notion of a multipolar world order." Venezuela has provided a beachhead of sorts of Chinese soft power in the region, acting as an interlocutor for Central American and Caribbean recipients of its international subsidized oil programs, he writes. But in the midst of the country's political crisis, the opposition has failed to engage with China and allay concerns that its interests would survive regime change. "Today, only around 15 percent of Venezuelans approve of Mr. Maduro’s presidency, yet as long as he enjoys the mandate of China he can persist, prolonging Venezuelans’ agony. Changing this will require a cohesive and conciliatory message from the opposition, and sufficient foresight from China to let go of the corrupt, incompetent devil they know lest they become irredeemable to those who will follow him."

• Trump's bullying stance towards Mexico is elevating the odds for perpetual leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, reports the Washington Post. Though he hasn't announced his candidacy for next year's elections, he's already a frontrunner. While his populist style is a salve for wounded national sentiments, critics worry his rhetoric will set the country up on a collision course with the U.S.

• A Mexican Senate report found that a bill regulating military involvement in internal security would only increase the role of a force whose role over the past ten years of fighting against drug cartels has been heavily questioned. "The authors point out an important fact: that after a decade of a militarized drug war there is still no adequate public data or evaluation of the military's role in the campaign against organized crime. Neither, they claim, is there solid evidence available to explain why the Federal Police and the gendarmerie, a new militarized police force created by President Enrique Peña Nieto, are insufficient tools for fighting organized crime without support from the armed forces," reports InSight Crime.

• Climate change functions like sparks in tinder for cities around the world. "They expose cities’ biggest vulnerabilities, inflaming troubles that politicians and city planners often ignore or try to paper over. And they spread outward, defying borders," according to a new New York Times series on climate change and cities. The first installment focuses on Mexico City's chronic water problem, which is causing its very foundations to crumble.

• Trump's deportation plans could be a boon for Mexico's call centers, which needs English speakers, reports the Guardian. Already the industry is booming and employs thousands of Mexicans deported by the Obama administration. (A recent New Yorker piece traces how a wave of Obama deportations fueled El Salvador's call center industry, see Jan. 30's briefs.)

• A record 17,512 unaccompanied Salvadoran children were apprehended at the U.S. border in the fiscal year that ended in September -- an 87 percent increase over the previous year. More than 27,000 minors or adults traveling in family units also were apprehended; that was a 150 percent increase, reports the Los Angeles Times. Most seek to flee rampant violence in a country where nearly one in four people were victims of a crime last year. A poll conducted by Central American University, which also found that more than 40 percent of Salvadorans hoped to leave the country within a year. The piece focuses on a program created by President Obama that allows Central American children with at least one parent living legally in the U.S. to apply for refugee status while in their home country. "Immigrant advocates have hailed the effort as a small but important step toward recognizing the violence in El Salvador and neighboring countries."

• Salvadoran authorities announced a massive transfer of gang inmates to a single facility, in an effort to revert their consolidation of power within the penitentiary system, reports InSight Crime.

• A group of U.S. lawmakers introduced a resolution this week in the House of Representatives to reaffirm the United States’ commitment to fighting corruption in Central America. The statement backed by members of Congress from both parties won't have immediate impact on U.S. policy, but it notes the anti-corruption efforts of Central American countries, especially the CICIG and MACCIH, notes InSight Crime. The statement comes as CICIG head Iván Velásquez is facing a smear campaign he attributes to dismantled corruption networks. (See Wednesday's briefs.)

• Gang-related violence in Bahamas is significantly on the rise this year, prompting troops deployment on the streets and raising concerns over the government's ability to respond to security problems, reports InSight Crime.

• Brazilian President Michel Temer's ratings continue to drop amid his push for austerity measures, while former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is rebounding ahead of 2018 elections, reports Reuters.

• Interesting feature in The Conversation asks experts from different peace processes around the world -- from Ireland to Bosnia to Argentina -- to weigh in on the difficulties Colombia might face moving forward in implementing its peace deal.

• Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos thanked Correa for his support of the peace negotiations with the ELN, reports EFE.

• Six months after the Rio Olympics, the infrastructure legacy is decaying fast, reports the New York Times.

Ecuadorans to vote Sunday, end of Correa cycle (Feb. 16, 2017)

Ecuadoreans are headed to the ballot boxes on Sunday, to pick a successor to President Rafael Correa. Incumbent Alianza País coalition candidate, Lenin Moreno, is leading in polls, but not by enough to win outright, and a run-off is predicted with likely second-place candidate, banker Guillermo Lasso.

Moreno appears to be just short the minimum needed to win the presidency on Sunday, and a second-round in April could united disparate opposition factions against him, reports Reuters.

The results of the election will determine whether Ecuador joins the ranks of the countries in the region tilted towards the right, or remains a bastion of the receding Latin American Pink Tide, according to the Guardian.

There is a sensation of an end of cycle, according to El País.

The uncertainty marks a potential turning point in Correa's "citizen revolution," and puts his legacy on the line. He remains very popular. Though economic recession is currently affecting the country, the past decade has been one of relative economic and political stability, according to the Associated Press. Correa leveraged an oil boom to invest heavily in the country's social infrastructure, including hospitals and schools.

"Ecuador is a good example of how a left government achieved success over the past decade through positive and creative changes in economic policy, as well as financial, institutional, and regulatory reform," writes Mark Weisbrot in The Nation.

But Ecuadoreans must consider more than economics when they vote on Sunday, argues Human Rights Watch's Daniel Wilkinson in a New York Times Español op-ed. He points to numerous regulations passed by Correa permitting government crackdowns on civil society organizations and media outlets. How such tools could be used by the next president are of critical concern, he argues.

"Fortunately, Correa hasn't managed to silence political debate in Ecuador. But he has impacted independent media outlets and organizations of civil society, which must continuously ponder the risk of eventual retaliations from a government willing to punish its critics, and which, thanks to the measures approved during his presidency, has the means to do so."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

U.S. - Venezuela relationship heating up again

U.S. President Donald Trump called on the Venezuelan government to immediately release jailed political opposition leader Leopoldo López.

Trump met unexpectedly last night with López's wife, Liliana Tintori, at a White House dinner with Republican Senator Marco Rubio, reports the Miami Herald.

A Twitter message in which Trump called López a political prisoner was retweeted 3,000 times within ten minutes, reports Efecto Cocuyo. López was sentenced to 13 years in prison in 2015 for allegedly inciting violence in 2014 protests, reports the Washington Post. His trial and sentence have been criticized by human rights and international organizations.

In turn, Tintori tweeted that she told Trump and U.S. VP Mike Pence about the “humanitarian crisis” in Venezuela, including the scarcity of food and medicine and the plight of political prisoners, according to the Herald.

"I don't want problems with the Trump administration," said President Nicolás Maduro in a speech yesterday, according to Reuters. Nonetheless Venezuelan government rejected Trump's Twitter plea as meddling in internal affairs, reports Efecto Cocuyo separately.

David Smilde analyzes the impact of the U.S. designation of Venezuela's Vice President Tareck El Aissami as a drug kingpin earlier this week. (See Tuesday's post.) Though it initially appeared that the Treasury Department designation was independent from the Trump administration, official statements suggest it is an indicator of the U.S. government's approach, he writes.

But Smilde criticizes the usefulness of such a harsh approach. "As usual, supporters of this OFAC designation are working with breezy hydraulic metaphors of “putting pressure” on Venezuelan officials which will presumably lead them to democratize through unspecified mechanisms. Looked at a little more carefully, it is hard to imagine just how putting under existential threat, a person who currently holds significant power, could get him to cooperate with a democratic transition. From El Aissami’s perspective, a return of fair elections to Venezuela would surely put the opposition in power and likely see him extradited to the United States. One’s starting assumption must be that he will use all the levers of power to prevent that from happening."

In the meantime, China highlighted its ongoing cooperation with Venezuela this week, as countries signed 22 agreements worth $2.7 billion in Caracas, reports EFE.

News Briefs

• Venezuela's government blocked CNN's Spanish-language channel, a week after a CNN investigation linked the vice president to international passport fraud in the Middle East, reports the New York Times. The story was the product of a year-long investigation into allegations that Venezuelan passports and visas were being sold to people in Iraq, including some with terrorism links, reports the BBC. (See Tuesday's post.) Social media "exploded" over the channel's censorship, reports Efecto Cocuyo. The channel is one of the most popular on cable, according to the Wall Street Journal, which says that for many Venezuelans, it "had become the last independent source of news about their country, as the government steadily bought out, shut down or starved local media of resources." CNN stands by the report, according to Efecto Cocuyo.

• About a half dozen incidents of Chavista antagonism towards Venezuelan churches have the Roman Catholic hierarchy there up in arms, reports Reuters. 

• Social leaders in Colombia have suffered at least 317 violations of human rights since the beginning of the definitive bilateral cease-fire between Colombia and the FARC, according to a new report from the Patriotic March political party, reports TeleSUR.

• A Brazilian court overturned a ruling banning media outlets from publishing information about a blackmail attempt against first lady Marcela Temer, reports the BBC. (See Tuesday's briefs for The Intercept's reporting on the case.)

• Brazil's Supreme Court handed President Michel Temer a victory by allowing him to elevate a close advisor to a cabinet position, giving him a measure of legal protection from allegations of corruption in relation to Operation Car Wash, reports El País.

• Revelations of Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht's bribing of public officials around the region have already caused backlash in Latin American countries. Now prosecutors from 15 countries will gather in Brasilia to coordinate strategies for information stemming from the Operation Car Wash investigation into corruption at Petrobras, reports El País. (See Feb. 8's post, as well as Tuesday's, Monday's, and last Friday's briefs.)

• Up to 60 percent of marijuana related detentions in Rio de Janeiro would be considered legal possession in Portugal, reports El País based on a report by the Instituto de Segurança Pública.

• A group of six former U.S. ambassadors to Mexico tout the benefits of a cooperative relationship between the two countries, as opposed to the increasingly combative stance of the current U.S. administration, in a Washington Post op-ed.

• Though Latin American countries have remained relatively silent regarding the diplomatic confrontation between Mexico and the U.S., several countries have planned meetings aimed at supporting Mexico, confronting Trump's isolationist policies and perhaps improving regional ties with China, according to Andrés Oppenheimer in the Miami Herald. (See Feb. 8's briefs on how different Latin American countries are seeking to salvage their free trade priorities in the Trump era.)

• A Mexican mother of four took refuge in a Denver church to avoid deportation after U.S. Immigration and Enforcement (ICE) officials denied her request for a "stay of removal." She has lived in the United States for 20 years and her three younger children are American born, reports Reuters.

• Three men were arrested in the Dominican Republic in connection to the killing of two radio journalists. Gunmen opened fire in the midst of a Facebook Live broadcast, from an FM radio station in a mall east of Santo Domingo, reports the New York Times. Killing of journalists is rare in the country, but many reported an increase in harassments over their coverage of the country’s immigration debate.

Venezuelan gov't rallies behind VP (Feb. 15, 2017)

Venezuela's VP Tareck El Aissami described his blacklisting by the United States on drug charges as an "imperialist aggression," reports Reuters. (See yesterday's post.) 

President Nicolás Maduro defended his second-in-command yesterday, after the U.S. accused him of trafficking, saying he would demand apology, reports the New York Times. Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez said the accusations constituted "an international crime" and "an action without precedent in our bilateral relations," reports the Miami Herald. It's not yet clear whether Venezuela will retaliate diplomatically. The two countries haven't exchanged ambassadors since 2010, but the U.S. chargé d'affaires of attempting to instigate a coup.

The case has put "a spotlight on the son of Syrian and Lebanese immigrants who rose to become the country’s second-most-powerful figure, former associates say, through business pragmatism and political ruthlessness," reports the Wall Street Journal.

"Should Maduro step down as president -- something most Venezuelans now want -- El Aissami would stand to take his place. His new position could mean different things -- it could be a sign that a succession process has begun, or an attempt to soften the vitriol against Maduro by positioning a feared, criminal, hardliner as the next alternative," according to InSight Crime.

"El Aissami's new appointment signals a habit of President Maduro's of appointing individuals indicted or sanctioned by the United States for drug trafficking, money laundering and other related crimes to high government positions. Maduro is surrounding himself with cronies who have a vested interest in ensuring the political opposition does not take power, and El Aissami is just one of many individuals with such interests." (See yesterday's post.) 

News Briefs

• Ecuador's upcoming presidential election this weekend will indicate whether the region's pink-tide of leftist governments has really turned, according to the Guardian. The piece is a good review of the campaign and situation in Ecuador -- international media coverage has tended to skew against the incumbent party. Allianza País candidate Lenín Moreno has a strong lead but is unlikely to win outright on Sunday. Moreno, a former vice president for President Rafael Correa, maintains the incumbent's leftist politics, but differs greatly in style and humor, according to the piece. The likely second-place winner is former banker Guillermo Lasso, who represents the right-wing Creo-Suma alliance.

• After 13 years, the U.N. multilateral military mission in Haiti could finally be ending, reports the Miami Herald. The U.N. secretary-general for peace keeping plans to recommend ending the military component of the $346-million-a-year stabilization mission in Haiti.

• A 23-year-old Mexican man, brought illegally as a child to the U.S. and covered by the Obama DACA program, has been detained by immigration officials. Lawyers defending him say it's the first time under U.S. President Donald Trump that a person in the program has been detained, reports Reuters.

• America’s abuse of Mexico is an assault on free trade, argues former Mexican President Felipe Calderón in the Financial Times.

• Guatemalan legislators are scheduled to discuss today a constitutional amendment that recognize indigenous justice as part of the country's judicial system, reports the Associated Press. The project has the support of Attorney General Thelma Aldana and CICIG head Iván Velásquez An attempt to pass the measure last year narrowly lost due to opposition resistance. (See Dec. 13's briefs for reactions.)

• Velásquez said recently dismantled criminal networks have launched a smear campaign against him, and are attempting to discredit the CICIG's work, reports InSight Crime. Velásquez responded to false rumors that he is wanted for arrest in his native Colombia and that he has been removed from the international commission.

• Two assassinated boys were buried in Guatemala City this week, an apparent case of kidnapping that has shocked this violence weary country, according the Associated Press.

• Argentine President Mauricio Macri earned comparisons to Trump this month with an executive order cracking down on migration. Now prosecutors are after him for potential conflict of interest after his government forgave a $128m debt owed by his family’s company -- a glimpse of what might happen in the U.S.? The Guardian reports on the case which involves the Macri family firm and its concession of the Argentine postal service. Federal prosecutor Juan Pedro Zoni says the settlement did not protect the public interest adequately and the officials should be investigated, reports the Associated Press.

• New labor laws in Chile could spell out a long strike for workers renegotiating contracts at BHP Billiton's Escondida mine, reports Reuters. The new labor code was passed last year by President Michelle Bachelet, seeking to return power to organized labor.

• A Guardian Long Read piece on the families of missing migrants seeking their loved ones. "There is a corner of the internet, a big one, devoted to efforts to track down missing would-be immigrants – or to find the families of people whose bodies have been discovered but not identified – by sharing photographs and ages and information about last known whereabouts as widely as possible. Seventy thousand people like a page called, in Spanish, Following Their Footsteps. One hundred and forty thousand follow one that translates as Missing and Unclaimed on the Border. The group Searching for the Disappeared on the Border, with more than 125,000 members, lists its purpose as supporting searches for “loved ones lost while pursuing the American dream”."

U.S. adds Venezuelan VP to Drug Kingpin list (Feb. 14, 2017)

The U.S. government added Venezuelan vice president Tareck El Aissami on a sanctions list, for allegedly aiding drug traffickers. The U.S. Treasury used the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act (Kingpin Act), and said Aissami played "a significant role in international narcotics trafficking." The Treasury also added Venezuelan businessman Samaro López Bello to the sanctions list, calling him El Aissami's frontman.

Adding them to the sanctions list freezes their U.S. assets and blocks U.S. companies and individuals from doing business with them. The actions are the result of a "multi-year investigation under the Kingpin Act to target significant narcotics traffickers in Venezuela and demonstrates that power and influence do not protect those who engage in these illicit activities," according to the statement.

The statement details that El Aissami "facilitated shipments of narcotics from Venezuela, to include control over planes that leave from a Venezuelan air base, as well as control of drug routes through the ports in Venezuela.  In his previous positions, he oversaw or partially owned narcotics shipments of over 1,000 kilograms from Venezuela on multiple occasions, including those with the final destinations of Mexico and the United States."

"He also facilitated, coordinated, and protected other narcotics traffickers operating in Venezuela.  Specifically, El Aissami received payment for the facilitation of drug shipments belonging to Venezuelan drug kingpin Walid Makled Garcia.  El Aissami also is linked to coordinating drug shipments to Los Zetas, a violent Mexican drug cartel, as well as providing protection to Colombian drug lord Daniel Barrera Barrera and Venezuelan drug trafficker Hermagoras Gonzalez Polanco."

Previous attempts by the U.S. to single out Venezuelan officials in relation to drug trafficking have been dismissed in the past by the government as destabilization attempts, notes the Wall Street Journal. And last year Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro promoted 

However, this is the most senior Venezuelan official targeted by U.S. sanctions, and the move is bound to further deteriorate relations between the two countries, according to the Associated Press.

It would seem to be a message about how the new U.S. administration intends to deal with the country's pressing crisis, and likely to set a hostile tone to relations between the two governments, according to the New York Times.

Though the Obama administration had its share of tense moments with Venezuela's government, the move is a change from the "so-called 'soft landing' approach" taken by the former administration, "which at times had clashed with efforts by the U.S. Justice Department and Drug Enforcement Agency, working with informants in Venezuela to nab influential government officials for money laundering and drug trafficking," according to Reuters.

El Aissami has consistently denied all allegations against him, and said on his Twitter account Tuesday that the allegations are "miserable provocations," reports Bloomberg. López also said the sanctions were politically motivated, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

El Aissami was promoted to first in line of succession last month, amid speculation that President Nicolás Maduro will not manage to complete his mandate, which ends in 2018. (See Jan. 5's post.) U.S. officials said the sanctions were not a reaction to that promotion, reports EFE.

The move comes a week after a bipartisan group of 34 American politicians sent a letter to U.S. President Donald Trump urging him to sanction top officials responsible for corruption and human rights abuses, notes the AP. The letter specifically singled out El Aissami for his purported ties to terrorist organizations. (See last Wednesday's briefs.) Some experts have accused El Aissami of links to radical Islamic organizations in the Middle East, including the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, reports the Miami Herald.

InSight Crime casts doubt on the links, noting that "the nexus between Islamic terrorist organizations and Latin American organized crime has historically been exaggerated for various reasons. This does not mean that the trafficking of Venezuelan passports raised by the senators' letter and the CNN investigation is not a real scheme. But the available evidence suggests that the passports were being sold by corrupt officials for their personal economic gain, rather than as a coordinated policy to aid international terrorist organizations."

The sanctions announced yesterday are only related to drug trafficking charges.

Efecto Cocuyo reports on the affected assets.

El Aissami has been put in charge of an "anti-coup" unit of government, responsible for detaining members of the political opposition last month. (See Jan. 12's post.)

The U.S. and Venezuela have been on tense diplomatic footing for over 15 years, and haven't exchanged ambassadors since 2010. There has so far been little indication of what direction Trump will move Venezuelan policy, and Maduro has held off from open antagonism since Trump's inauguration. 

But this weekend Trump voiced concern over the direction of Venezuelan politics in phone conversations with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, reports Efecto Cocuyo. (Before news of the sanctions, which were announced yesterday.)

U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and officials have backfired before -- giving chavista supporters a rallying point. Last year Maduro promoted Gen. Nestor Reverol as Minister of Interior and Justice a day after U.S. prosecutors unsealed an indictment charging him with conspiracy to help cocaine shipments going from Colombia to the U.S. At the time David Smilde at Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights argued it was part of a strategy to build "a core security team among officials that have in some way been blacklisted by the US. This makes sense since these officials have high 'exit costs' in any transition scenario. Put differently, they will be loyal and fight to finish because their ability to avoid US justice depends on the survival of Chavismo in power." He also points to a similar logic behind putting the military in charge of food distribution -- the government's weakest flank -- as a way potentially making them the targets of eventual social unrest." (See briefs for Aug. 8, 2016.)

News Briefs

• Venezuelan health authorities reported a second child death from diphtheria this year, reports Efecto Cocuyo.  An outbreak of the bacterial infection, which is particularly lethal for children but increasingly rare due to immunizations, shows the country's vulnerability to health risks amid shortages of medicine and vaccinations, reported Reuters last week.

• As the economic crisis in Venezuela deepens, nationals lead the region in U.S. asylum requests for the first time, reports the Associated Press. Though most applicants don't meet the political persecution requirements for asylum, many are willing to take advantage of a two-year processing delay to temporarily live and work in the U.S.

• Food and medical shortages in Venezuela have been much reported on. Now the country doesn't even have paper for passports, according to the Miami Herald.

• Paraguayan authorities are investigating a 30 metric ton load of Venezuelan cash discovered in a private house near the Brazilian border, reports the Associated Press. Officials are looking into whether the load of 50- and 100-bolivar bills were brought in legally. (Last year Maduro's sudden removal from circulation of the 100 bolivar bill was officially blamed on transnational gangs hoarding the currency -- an explanation most experts scoffed at. See Dec. 16's post, for example.) Police said the stash in Paraguay belonged to a national arms dealer and suspect the paper from the notes was intended for use in creating counterfeit U.S. dollars, reports the BBC.

• Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met yesterday in Washington. In the post meeting press conference, Trump promised that NAFTA renegotiations with the U.S.'s northern neighbor would be mere tweaks, "it's a much less severe situation than what's taking place on the southern border," he said, according to the Associated Press.

• Mexican lawmakers are threatening to retaliate to U.S. possible import tariffs by chanelling the country's corn purchases towards Brazil and Argentina instead of the U.S., reports CNN. 

• Crackdowns last week by U.S. immigrations officials led to over 680 arrests, reports Reuters. Though officials said they were business as usual, migrant advocates said they were more sweeping than raids carried out by the former administration. Of those captured last week, 75 percent had criminal records, which includes everything from homicide to driving under the influence of alcohol, as well as people who ignored deportation orders. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• The Odebrecht revelations of nearly $800 million paid in bribes to government officials around Latin America are cascading across the region and impacting high level officials everywhere from Panama to Peru. The New York Times adds the latest report to coverage of the case. (See yesterday's and Friday's briefs, and last Wednesday's post.)

• Brazilian authorities have opened disciplinary proceedings against dozens of military police officers whose strike last week led to violent looting in Espirito Santo state, reports the Associated Press. State officials initiated procedures to fire 161 military police this morning. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• The Intercept reports on the case of Brazilian press articles on the prosecution of a hacker who stole the first lady's private phone data, which were promptly deleted by the country's two largest newspapers after President Michel Temer obtained a judicial order making the issue off limits. "This case and the underlying material are plainly in the public interest. While Temer and his wife deny that they reveal any wrongdoing on their part, there was a criminal prosecution over these allegations that led to someone’s lengthy imprisonment. Allegations that the president of the country engaged in particularly illegal or otherwise unethical conduct should be resolved by an examination of the evidence, not by censorship of newspapers."

• Paraguayan campesinos marched this week demanding the resignation of President Horacio Cartes, reports TeleSUR.

• A former Sandinista -- a Roman Catholic priest and noted poet -- is accusing the Nicaraguan government of political persecution through a lawsuit, reports the Associated Press.

• Will medical marijuana save Puerto Rico's ailing economy? The newly founded Puerto Rico Medicinal Cannabis Association argues that the industry will put millions of tax dollars in public coffers, reports EFE.

• Protest art has come a long way from Berlin Wall. Artists are using everything from glow-in-the-dark stickers to plywood in their works on the U.S.-Mexico border, reports the Guardian. And old school graffiti has made its way to Havana, where the sly social criticism of artist Yulier Rodriguez Perez is notable in a place where graffiti is rare, according to the Associated Press.

• Happy Valentines Day: Buy Colombian roses with the knowledge that police security protocols specifically protect the country's major legal export from penetration by cocaine trafficking drug gangs, reports the Associated Press.

Mexican protesters reject Trump, Peña Nieto (Feb. 13, 2017)

Protesters in Mexico City and other cities around the country rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's stance towards their country. But they also criticized Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and demanded concrete policies against corruption and impunity, reports Animal Político. It was a rare display of unity across parties, reports Reuters.

While Trump's hostile stance towards Mexican migrants and exports have created a nationalist rallying point for Mexicans, they haven't managed to boost Peña Nieto's low approval rating. (See last Friday's and Wednesday's briefs.)

About 20,000 people participated under the hashtag Vibra Mexico in Mexico City, rejecting Trump's threat to make them pay for a border wall between the two countries, according to Animal Político. About 30,000 estimated marchers between Mexico City and Guadalajara, according to Reuters.

The protests in 19 cities around the country were organized by a coalition of nonprofits, media outlets and university groups, reports the Wall Street Journal.

In Los Angeles this weekend, Mexican leftist presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador rallied supporters with a similar battlecry against Trump's border wall and against Mexico's ruling party, reports Reuters. But he also praised California as a refuge for immigrants and said he had faith in American resistance to Trump's policies.

AMLO, as he is called, is a perpetual candidate, but has turned into a front-runner for the 2018 elections riding a wave of discontent with the country’s economic underperformance and rejection of the political elite, reports the Guardian. The former Mexico City mayor is gaining momentum on the backlash against Trump and Peña Nieto expressed in this weekend's protests, reports the Wall Street Journal.

In the meantime, Trump promised to bring down the "great border wall's" estimated costs, after reports last week found that estimates were significantly higher than numbers touted in the presidential campaign, reports Reuters. An internal report by the Department of Homeland Security that estimated the price of a wall along the entire border at $21.6 billion.

News Briefs

• A new review of the investigation into 43 missing students in Mexico essentially clears officials of wrongdoing and leaves the much questioned government version of events intact, reports the New York Times. The final version found that investigators committed a few technical violations -- a far cry from an earlier report that described such serious wrongdoing that the legal basis for the case were under question. The internal review was in response to outside experts who questioned the handling of the investigation, pointing to serious flaws in evidence gathering and human rights abuses of suspects. The final report in particular absolves the former director in charge of the investigation, Tomás Zerón, notes Proceso.

• Reports of immigrant sweeps in at least four U.S. states last week sparked concern among migrant advocates, reports Reuters. A New York Times editorial highlights the case of Guadalupe García de Rayos, a 35-year-old mother of two American born children. "What was always most alarming about Mr. Trump’s posturing on immigration wasn’t the wall, which will never be built in the way he describes it. It is instead the prospect of ramped-up enforcement that promises to increase misery on both sides of the border. The criminalizing of law-abiding immigrants who have lived in the United States for years, and of the migrants from Central America who arrive desperate for refuge. The households sundered, the jobs lost, the brutal idiocy of it all."

• Migrant advocates are pushing a strategy of legally challenging deportations in the U.S. though it means risking detention and long court battles, reports the Wall Street Journal. Former Mexican foreign minister Jorge Castañeda is among those pushing for the Mexican government to underwrite the legal struggle they hope will overwhelm the U.S. immigration courts and bring deportations to a halt.Though the government hasn't backed the strategy,  recently budgeted about $50 million to the country’s 50 consulates to help pay the costs of defending migrants facing deportation.

• Though the U.S. remains the ultimate destination for Latin American migrants fleeing everything from violence to poverty, but with entry increasingly difficult, many are settling legally and illegally in Mexico, reports the New York Times. Last year, more than 8,100 foreigners applied for asylum, nearly three times as many as in 2015, and more than 15 times as many as five years ago. Mexico's asylum process has improved, thanks to pressure from migrant advocates. Most applicants have been from Honduras and El Salvador in recent years. The upward trend in asylum requests is also related to the U.S. backed increase in border patrol along Mexico's southern border, leading more undocumented migrants to be detained there along their journey to the U.S.

• A few hundred of the striking military police in Brazil's Espirito Santo state returned to duty this weekend, joining more than 300 federal troops called in to quell a wave of violence over the past week. But the strike over pay, which precipitated a homicide spike and looting, is not yet over, reports the Associated Press. More than 4,000 soldiers and elite federal police arrived over the weekend to bolster the initial 1,200 federal troops sent over the week, reports Reuters. And authorities indicted more than 700 striking military police officers, reports the Guardian. In fact the strike has been led by police families, the BBC reports.

• A Guatemalan court rejected dismissing charges against former dictator José Efraín Ríos Montt in relation to the 1982 Dos Erres massacre, but did not determine whether the case will be heard using the special procedures outlined in Guatemalan law for individuals like Ríos Montt, who suffer mental incompetence, reports the International Justice Monitor. (See last Thursday's briefs.)

• Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski said he asked Trump to consider deporting former President Alejandro Toledo. Last week a Peruvian judge ordered preventive detention for Toledo in a corruption case, but the former leader said he was not given the right to a fair trial, reports Reuters. Peruvian authorities have offered a $30,000 reward for the former president's capture, reports the Wall Street Journal. (See Friday's briefs.)

• Toledo's plight is part of the newest stage in the Odebrecht corruption scandal, which has taken Brazilian politics by storm (part of the bigger Operation Car Wash investigation into Petrobras related graft), reports the Washington Post. The piece looks at other regional ramifications of revelations that the Brazilian construction giant paid $788 million in bribes around the region. The trail of cash is threatening leaders from Peru to Panama, reports the Guardian. (See last Wednesday's post.)

• Panamanian prosecutors said they formally arrested the Mossack-Fonseca partners. The charges related to Odebrecht revelations, but the law firm became internationally prominent last year in the "Panama Papers" leak detailing off-shore dealings of the international rich and famous, reports the Associated Press. (See Friday's briefs.)

• Venezuelan officials barred a new Sony Pictures series based on Hugo Chávez's life, which premiered in Latin America earlier this month. But repression only increased interest for Venezuelans who sought illegal links and Youtube streaming options to watch anyway, reports the Washington Post.

• Hotspot policing has allowed Bogotá to reduce crime by 20 percent in those areas, despite having a relatively small police force, reports El Tiempo.

• Spyware discovered on the phones of Mexican advocates of the country's 2014 sugar tax on soft drinks raises questions over how cyber spying tools are deployed in a largely unregulated international market, reports the New York Times. 

• The Daily Beast reports on the reign of Peruvian druglord Marco Antonio Estrada González in Buenos Aires' Villa 1-11-14. "Marcos" as he is known, was arrested by authorities in December, but has wrangled his way out of previous convictions for drug trafficking. "In Villa 1-11-14 Marcos has an army of up to 300 “soldiers” to carry out his orders, including torturing and killing those who cross him. Armed with AK-47s and Uzis, Marcos’s gang rules a stretch of up to 15 blocks where the police don’t dare enter. This has allowed Marcos to expand his operations to production, running an estimated 10 cocaine labs in the neighborhood. The business has come at a human cost for those in Villa 1-11-14. Drug addiction plagues the neighborhood and residents live in fear of sporadic shoot-outs."

• A Dominican Republic newspaper accidentally ran a picture of actor Alec Baldwin dressed up as Trump for Saturday Night Live in lieu of the real U.S. president, reports the BBC.

​

Latin America Daily Briefing

Judge order preventive prison for former Peruvian president (Feb. 10, 2017)

News Briefs

• Brazil's Espirito Santo state turned over security duties to the army Wednesday, amid a wave of violence that has caused at least 100 deaths since a military police strike over pay started last weekend, reports the Guardian. (See yesterday's, Wednesday's and Tuesday's briefs.)

• A Peruvian judge ordered 18 months preventive prison for former President Alejandro Toledo while prosecutors prepare criminal charges against him for allegedly receiving $20m in bribes from the Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht, reports the Guardian. The judge pointed to a "high degree of probability" that Toledo allegedly took bribes from Odebrecht in exchange for public-works contracts during his administration, reports the Wall Street Journal. Toledo's lawyers argued that the sentence is excessive for the 70-year-old former leader who says the trial is politically motivated. Since December, Odebrecht's revelations that it paid $788 million in bribes to government officials throughout Latin America to secure public works contracts have spurred investigations in Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Chile, Argentina, Guatemala and Ecuador, reports the Los Angeles Times. (See Wednesday's post.)

• Colombia's chief prosecutor said allegations that President Juan Manuel Santos accepted campaign donations from Odebrecht are based on testimony of a rancher connected to the leader's opponents, reports the Associated Press. (See Wednesday's post.)

• Panamanian prosecutors raided the offices of Mossack Fonseca, the law firm at the center of the Panama Papers scandal, seeking links to Odebrecht, reports Reuters. The firm is accused of setting up offshore accounts that allowed the company to funnel bribes to various countries, explains the Wall Street Journal.

• A Brazilian court overturned a ruling suspending the nomination of a key ally of Brazilian President Michel Temer to a cabinet post. The nomination of Wellington Moreira Franco has been controversial because he is reportedly named in Odebrecht plea testimony, and the ministerial position would give him an element of legal shielding, reports Reuters.

• The oft promised Trump wall between Mexico and the U.S. would actually be a series of fences and walls, and could cost as much as $21.6 billion and take over three years to build, reports Reuters based on a US Department of Homeland Security internal report.

• Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray has categorically denied a CBS News report that said he made changes to U.S. President Donald Trump's speech announcing an executive order for the construction of a border wall with Mexico, reports Reuters. The CBS report said Videgaray worked with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner to reword the speech to cast the countries bilateral relationship in a more positive light and briefed Trump on the changes. "I never thought I would use this phrase, but today I'm doing it: FAKE NEWS," said Videgaray on Twitter. Videgaray was promoted to the foreign minister post after Trump's election, in part because of his closeness to Trump's inner circle. (See Jan. 5's post.)

• Trump's unifying effect for Mexicans has been much commented on in recent weeks, but the Guardian susses out the difference between elites who have rallied around President Enrique Peña Nieto, and ordinary Mexicans who have rallied to the flag but are unwilling to back the unpopular leader. "Analysts say the persistent divisions – even at a time of national crisis –demonstrate a deep dismay with domestic affairs, along with a lingering distrust of authority figures."

• Leftist presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador is opting for an unusually moderate stance ahead of his U.S. tour this weekend, reports Brendan O'Boyle in Americas Quarterly. Since Trump's election "... López Obrador has presented himself as a more modest figure, a sign he recognizes the need to allay fears on the part of Mexico’s elites and moderate voters that his presidency could disrupt the status quo and undo reforms initiated by the [current] government ..."

• A shootout between alleged criminals and Mexican marines killed the alleged leader of the Beltrán Leyva cartel, Juan Francisco Patrón Sánchez, reports Animal Político.

• An outbreak of diphtheria in Venezuela -- a bacterial infection particularly lethal for children but increasingly rare due to immunizations -- shows the country's vulnerability to health risks amid shortages of medicine and vaccinations, reports Reuters.

• Guatemalan Supreme Court judge Blanca Stalling was arrested on charges of using her position to pressure a lower court judge who was hearing a corruption case against her son, Otto Molina Stalling, reports EFE. Last month the CICIG and Public Ministry asked the court to strip Stalling of immunity in relation to the case. (See Jan. 12's briefs.)

• El Salvador's attorney general is investigating a accusations against President Salvador Sánchez Cerén in a 1986-1987 kidnapping case, committed while the current president was an FMLN guerrilla commander, reports la Prensa Gráfica. The case became possible after the Salvadoran supreme court overturned an amnesty law for civil war crimes. (See posts for July 14 and July 15 of last year.)

• Honduran authorities announced a new arrest in the Berta Cáceres murder investigation, reports TeleSUR.

• The FARC peace baby boom has been reported on, but the Guardian has a cute story on the subject, complete with a quote from a doctor who has gone from removing shrapnel in battle to treating diaper rash. (See Jan. 31's briefs for the Silla Vacía take, that the phenomenon is part of a lasting commitment to peace by the FARC rank and file.)

• Protests in Peru are blocking access to Las Bambas copper mine, as residents of Challhuahuacho demand health and sewage infrastructure, reports Reuters.

• Past enforcement of the U.S. "global gag rule" limiting aid to groups that provide abortions, and even from offering information on services has led to an increase in the number of girls aged 11–14 having unwanted pregnancies, and an increase in the prevalence of HIV/Aids in Chile, reports the Guardian. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• Ecuador's main opposition candidate for president said he will give WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange a month to leave the country's London embassy if he wins in February's elections, reports the Guardian.

• But ruling party candidate Lenín Moreno is still leading in the polls by about ten points over banker Guillermo Lasso, reports the Miami Herald. But analysts don't believe Moreno will manage to win 40 percent of the vote and maintain a 10 point lead over Lasso in order to win the presidency outright on Feb. 18. And the opposition will likely unify to beat him in the second round. Moreno's campaign has been further hit by a corruption scandal involving his his running mate, current vice president Jorge Glas, who has been accused of knowing about corruption at state-oil firm Petroecuador, according to the Herald.

• Amnesty International is particularly concerned with some aspects of Argentina's new migration regulations, such as a special prison for foreigners being prepared in Buenos Aires and rules that force all judges to inform the government whenever a foreigner has been indicted on suspicion of having committed a crime, reports the Guardian. (See Monday's and last Friday's briefs.)

• Winter migration of the monarch butterfly to Mexico dropped this year, after a brief recovery. The Associated Press explains the effect of logging and storms on the migration habits.