OAS report found Bolivian vote rigging (Dec. 6, 2019)

The final OAS report on Bolivia's Oct. 20 presidential election described “deliberate” and “malicious” steps to rig the vote in favor of incumbent Evo Morales. The 100 page report, released yesterday, builds on the Nov. 10 preliminary report that indicated irregularities. 

It described “a series of malicious operations," including the use of a hidden computer server designed to tilt the vote toward Morales. Deliberate wrongdoing by election officials, combined with a series of errors and irregularities in the vote count, made it impossible to validate the results, according to the OAS's 36 auditors. They accused Bolivia’s election officials of setting up a “parallel technological scheme” of hidden servers, which permitted the alteration of results and forging of signatures of electoral observers.

(Reuters, New York Times, see yesterday's briefing by Eduardo Romero.)

The newly appointed Bolivian electoral tribunal said it would use the OAS report to carry out adjustments and corrections to the electoral system ahead of next year's presidential election -- for which no date has yet been set, reports La Razón.

News Briefs

More Bolivia

• Bolivia's interim government is supposed to be a caretaker administration until new elections are held. But interim-president Jeanine Áñez has been reluctant to circumscribe her role, and has undertaken significant foreign policy shifts. International backers, who purport to be concerned about democracy in Bolivia, should push for a more targeted focus, argues a Guardian editorial.

• Former Bolivian economy minister Luis Arce Catacora joined the ranks of MAS party exiles in Mexico. He asked for political asylum in light of harassment and political persecution under the interim-government and in order to continue health treatments in Brazil in a timely fashion after delays in granting him permission to travel. (La Razón)

• Evo Morales will be moving to Argentina, to be closer to Bolivia, reports El País.

• Bolivia is tensely calm, reports Al Jazeera. After weeks of violently repressed protests, people are now awaiting the new electoral process in the midst of a political limbo.

• Bolivian lawmakers passed a bill guaranteeing full exercise of constitutional rights -- but the interim government promised to veto it, saying it could encourage protesters back onto the streets, reports La Razón.

Brazil

• Brazilian activists are justifiably concerned that the government seeks to criminalize their activities, reports the Guardian. The fears come in the wake of the arrest of four volunteer firefighters, and a related raid on an Amazonian environmental NGO's offices, last week.

• The attacks come as environmental defenders, particularly indigenous activists, are increasingly targets of violent attacks perpetrated by loggers, farmers and land-grabbers. A new Igarapé Institute study, documented 2,540 separate violent incidents targeting environmental defenders in Brazil's so-called Legal Amazon. (Americas Quarterly)

Regional Relations

• Brazil recognized 21,432 Venezuelans as refugees yesterday, a record number that doubles the amount of asylums granted since 1997, reports El País.

• A populist is a populist, regardless of ideological leanings, for the Economist, which draws parallels between Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro -- their styles and the difficulties they face after a year in office.

Mexico

• U.S. Attorney General William P. Barr met with AMLO yesterday -- the high-level meeting occurred in the middle of intense disagreement between the two countries over a U.S. proposal to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. But both sides downplayed the issue after yesterday's meeting, reports the Washington Post. But even if the Trump administration doesn't follow through with the terrorist organization designation, AMLO will likely have to accept greater U.S. involvement in Mexican security affairs, according to experts.

• Drug cartels aren't the only criminal organization in Mexico -- a little discussed Cartel del Mar trades in the endangered totoaba fishes' swim bladder, worth more per kilo than cocaine. The cost of ignoring the illegal trade, which threatens to finish off the vaquita porpoise, could have significant economic costs for Mexican fishers, argues Carlos Loret de Mola A.  in the Post Opinión.

Migration

• Three key facts salient to the migration debate in the U.S. have received insufficient attention, according to Michael Clemens and Jimmy Graham at the Center for Global Development. Demographic shifts will ease pressure from Northern Triangle migrants within a decade, they write. But, in the meantime, work visas are a powerful -- and underused -- tool for border enforcement. And aid can help mitigate migration drivers, but is, by no means, a quick fix, they warn.

• U.S. detentions of pregnant women for immigration violations increased 52 percent last year. Approximately 2,100 pregnant women were detained, after federal officials terminated an Obama administration order to release most expectant mothers because of health concerns. (Washington Post)

• Barriers (to avoid the whole wall polemic) being built along the U.S.-Mexico border will do little to stop humans from crossing, but will be devastating to wildlife and local ecosystems, warns former Border Patrol agent Francisco Cantú in a New York Times op-ed.

El Salvador

• Gangs influence every facet of life in El Salvador, one of the deadliest places in the world outside of a war zone, according to Foreign Policy. Though the murder rate dropped significantly this year, violence remains a key migration push factor.

Suriname

• Surinamese President Desi Bouterse's recent conviction for murdering 15 political foes in 1982 is unlikely to thwart the leader's hold on power, reports the Economist. (See Monday's briefs.)

Chile

• Human Rights Watch strongly defended its recent report on Chilean police violence against protesters, after the Carabineros questioned the group's findings.

Haiti

• It's been nearly a decade since a massive earthquake ravaged Haiti and killed an estimated 316,000 people. But the effects of the episode continue affect the country, and underly the causes of the current political crisis, reports Americas Quarterly.

Argentina

• Argentine president-elect Alberto Fernández announced his incoming cabinet for next week. A 37-year-old disciple of Joseph Stiglitz, Martín Guzmán, will be the head of an economic ministry tasked with renegotiating a massive IFM debt, reports El País.

• A young feminist activist in Argentina played an outsize role in pushing gender neutral Spanish, which has become increasingly institutionalized in the country, despite strong backlash from language purists, reports the Washington Post.

• Argentina's judiciary is fatally skewed towards whoever holds the government -- outgoing President Mauricio Macri will likely face a slew of court cases involving him and former government ministers. Incoming president Alberto Fernández could break the vicious cycle with a comprehensive reform, but a revamped justice would have to show impartiality by investigating across the political board, writes Hugo Alconada Mon in a New York Times Español op-ed. Timing is, apparently, everything.

• Pola Oloixarac critiques former Argentine president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's personal brand of Evita-flavored feminism in a New York Times op-ed. 

Human Rights -- symbolically

• A mural in Miami by Brazilian artist Panmela Castro depicting Rio de Janeiro police abusing a protester was painted over after local police complained that it was offensive. (Guardian)

• Amazon has come under fire for selling T-shirts glorifying the “death flights” of Chile’s military dictatorship -- again. (Guardian)

Feminism

• A Chilean protest song -- A Rapist in Your Path -- has become a viral feminist anthem around the world, reports the Guardian. The song was written by Latesis, a feminist theatre group based in the city of Valparaíso, who credited Chile’s women protesters for helping spread the work around the world. (Video for those who want to join in.)

Today is an evening edition due to work-related travel -- hours back to normal next week. Thank you to Eduardo Romero for his excellent work with the briefing in my absence!

Migrations & In/Stabilities in the Region (Dec 5, 2019)

News Briefs

MIGRATIONS

• Venezuelan youth in Brazil: Venezuelan children are fleeing to Brazil on their own twhere they are finding inadequate protection, according to the Brazilian Federal Public Defender’s Office and reported on by Human Rights Watch. About 90% of the 500 kids are between ages 13 and 17. "The total number is most likely higher, as some children may not stop at the border post where the public defenders conduct their interviews. No system exists to track and support unaccompanied children after their entry interview."
• Venezuelans in Bolivia: Venezuelans who migrated to Bolivia live in additional fear with the new political climate and the growing xenophobia that targets them, according to DIario Las Américas. Many are opting to keep migrating to places "where there is no conflict" like Paraguay.
• Haitians in Barbados: Haitian migrants face deportation and stigma in hurricane-ravaged Bahamas, writes Bertin Louis in The Conversation. Louis is the author of a 2014 academic book on the two islands.
• Climate crisis forces unintended migrations with ill consequences in gender equality, writes Nitya Rao in The Conversation. "In a recent study, we found that extreme weather and unpredictable seasons disproportionately weaken the agency of women to find well paid work and rise above rigid gender roles, even when these appear to be bending after decades of reform and activism."

IN/STABILITY IN THE REGION

• USA Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave a little-noticed speech on Monday titled, Diplomatic Realism, Restraint, and Respect in Latin America, where he said, "we in the Trump administration will continue to support countries trying to prevent Cuba and Venezuela from hijacking those protests. And we’ll work with legitimate governments to prevent protests from morphing into riots and violence that don’t reflect the democratic will of the people. And we’ll be vigilant too. Vigilant that new democratic leaders don’t exploit people’s frustrations to take power, to hijack the very democracy that got them there." (the quote is near the end of his text). VOA News emphasized his predictions on Maduro's government while Al-Jazeera his comments on Cuba.
• Brazil, Mexico and Argentina seem to be avoiding any social disruption unlike developments seen in Chile, Colombia, Bolivia and Ecuador, according to an analysis by Bloomberg. The article suggests that all three had elections in the past year and their populations are now "waiting for results."
• Are Latin America's generals considering a return to governing, asks  Mac Margolis in his Bloomberg column. (He was a long-time Newsweek reporter in the region.) He suggests that the presidents in Peru and Ecuador have "leaned" on their military recently; reminds that Brazil's Bolsonaro, is "a former army captain packed his cabinet with decorated retired generals"; and that generals clearly provoked the recent changes in Bolivia. In a follow-up tweet, Margolis says, "What’s in play today in Brazil and its neighbors is not a return to martial rule, but the parlous state of democracy, and lingering doubts over whether elected leaders can meet expectations of a demanding public without ringing for backup."

BOLIVIA 

• On Wednesday, the Organization of American States released their final report on the 2019 Bolivian elections. The 38 authors find that there was "intentional manipulation" and "serious irregularities" that make it "impossible to validate the results originally issued by the Bolivian electoral authorities". (See press release; Table of Contents; Reuters; BBC) 
• The Wall Street Journal goes back to analyze the growing rifts former president Evo Morales had with his military chiefs, a combination of leftist ideology by the ex-president and demands for raises in police salaries and pensions by the latter. The article notes that Morales was the Bolivia’s "only elected president to perform obligatory military service."

BRAZIL UPS & DOWNS

• A swath of jungle nearly the size of Lebanon has been been razed in the past year in the Brazilian Amazon - "the highest loss in a decade" - according to a report in New York Times accompanied by haunting video, photographs and graphics. "The environmental criminals feel more and more empowered," says Carlos Nobre, a climate scientist with the University of São Paulo.
• Brazil’s economy is growing at the "fastest pace" in the last year and a half, and "appears to be leaving behind years of sluggish growth that followed its worst recession on record," according to the Wall Street Journal.

COLOMBIA 

• National strikes started up again on Wednesday in Colombia's major cities, according to the BBC. The organzing committee has presented a list of 13 demands to Preside Duque including better access to education and promises the pension age will not be raised.
• Pulzo follows up on 18-year-old Dilan Cruz, killed by police in the Nov 23 strike in Bogota. A five-minute video identifies the policeman (not by name) who fired the shot. The video was compiled by La Liga Contra el Silencio, Cerosetenta, Newsy and Bellingcat. 
• Ex-FARC participants "may be allying themselves" with Brazil’s Red Command, according to Las 2 Orrillas. Together they seem to have access to financial resourses and weapons.

HONDURAS 

• The military program 'Guardianes de la Patria' has a lethal mix of God, country and children and has now included 12% of the population., according to Contra Corriente. (The quote is: "A lo largo de 17 años, el programa ha abarcado aproximadamente el 12% de la población infantil de Honduras.") The program has allowed the Armed Forces to whitewash some actions, permitted churches (including Protestants) to engage directly in schools. The report includes a one-minute video created by the program that explains their impact in their own words. The Honduran military has additional information from 2018 on their website.

MEXICO

• Mexico's former presidents Felipe Calderón and Enrique Peña Nieto helped a dozen major international companies evade taxes of up to 5 billion Mexican pesos (over US$250 million), according to a report from FUNDAR, reported by El Proceso and El Financiero. The report names businesses (Hewlett Packard and Volkswagen) as well as members of the business elite.

VENEZUELA

• A new poll shows that Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó and President Nicolas Maduro are in a statistical tie (10 and 9%), according to the Miami Herald. Though that poll from Meganálisis is the focus of the story, the article also reported that that "Delphos issued a survey giving Guaidó an approval rating of about 45 percent." Meganálisis, the Herald insists, "has been around for years and has been relatively accurate with its predictions in the past." (See full Meganálisis poll; email me if you have trouble downloading it).
• USA policy on Venezuela is ‘incoherent’, writes former Amb. Frank McNeil in his letter to the editor in the Miami Herald. McNeil was ambassador to Costa Rica.
• New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof shares more of his recent visit to Venezuela. "Development experts worry even more about the lifelong effect of malnutrition on the developing brain, fearing that the result will be a generation that is at a perpetual cognitive disadvantage."
• A report shows the torture endured by a friend of Óscar Pérez, the Venezluelan pilot who tried to rebel in 2018, according to Infobae. Alonso José Mora Alfonzo was detained in april of 2018 and is still imprisoned. 

END OF THE DECADE

• America's Quarterly decides not to go with an end of the year review but rather "a look back at the decade's biggest stories, and why they really mattered." The first two they have cited: Dilma's impeachment in Brazil and Haiti's earthquake.

(I am substituting for Jordana who returns us to our regular programming.)

Civic Groups Respond to Bolsonaro (Dec. 4, 2019)

News Briefs

Environment

·  Pact for Democracy‘s (Pacto Pela Democracia) conference call yesterday denounced the Bolsonaro government’s “persecution of activists, academics and scientists,” as well as volunteer fire fighters and personalities like Leonardo DiCaprio, according to the Associated Press. One nonprofit leader said that the “incendiary rhetoric has created a climate of terror” meant he no longer can sleep at home. The identical AP story in Spanish has a headline that ramps things up: “Guerra de Bolsonaro con las ONG.”

·   On Monday, the same coalition convened an event in São Paulo on the survival of Brazilian democracy according to the Folha do São Paulo.

·   Pact for Demoracy brings together a wide variety of groups from Avina and Ethos to World Wildlife Fund and World Vision.  

Regional Relations / Trade

·   The Trump administration is set to Brazil and Argentina with tariffs on steel and aluminum, Washington Post. “Brazil and Argentina have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies. which is not good for our farmers. Therefore, effective immediately, I will restore the Tariffs on all Steel & Aluminum from those countries,” according to a Trump tweet.

·   The USA named six more tankers shipping oil from Venezuela to Cuba as “blocked property according to the Miami Herald. The ships were using third country flags.

Immigration to the USA

·   An in-depth investigation on immigration into the USA through Mexico finds that “ nearly half of those who are in the country unlawfully actually entered with permission,” that is, with visas, according to the New York Times. Curiously, the version in English uses ‘undocumented immigrants’ while the Spanish version uses ‘illegal immigrants’.  The largest number of “overstayers”: are from Mexico followed by China, Venezuela, the Philippines, Brazil and Colombia. Back to language: number of times a version of ‘illegal’ is used in Spanish version: 16; number in English version: 5.

·   Some border crossings along the Mexico / USA border had five-hour waits on Monday, “causing concerns among local officials whose tax base relies on Mexican shoppers, especially during the holiday season,” according to the Associated Press.

·   Two Hondurans and one Salvadoran were sent Guatemala after seeking asylum in the United States on Tuesday, according to the Associated Press.

Chile / Peru

·      A 6.0 earthquake rumbled along under the sea Tuesday morning, 20 miles off the coast of the border of Chile and Peru, according to the Associated Press.

Colombia

·    Colombia today has the third general strike in two weeks, in part a response to President Duque’s paquetazo, according to El País.

El Salvador

·      El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele is in Beijing and signed a “gigantic, non-refundable cooperation… to build several major infrastructure projects in El Salvador including a stadium and water treatment plant,” according to Reuters. El Salvador recently cut ties with Taiwan. Agence France Press has a headline that sums it up:  it better in their headline: China gifts El Salvador stadium, library after Taiwan switch

Mexico

· President Trump’s labeling the cartels could backfire, according to New York Times’ columnist Ioan Grillo. Peru’s President Belaunde tried that in the early 1980s with the Shining Path with ill-intended consequences. “One of the toughest challenges for officials would be figuring out exactly which cartels to label as terrorists and what to call them.”

· President Lopez Obrador will strengthen the cooperation with the United States with respect to “the flow of arms and dollars" after meetings this week with U.S. Attorney General William Barr. according to Reuters.

Venezuela

·  Spains’ former president Felipe Gonzáles sees a common thread in Latin American crises and even connects it to crises elsewhere, in a wide ranging interview tin El País. He calls Venezuela’s Maduro a tyrant who has forced a quarter of his population to emigrate and predicts Maduro won’t last much longer.

The Globalization of Art & Food

·      Colombia’s conceptual artist Oscar Murillo was one of four co-winners of the shared Turner Prize, “Britain's most high-profile contemporary art award”, according to the BBC and The Guardian. Murillo’s work is a “congregation of human effigies staring at a black curtain covering a window overlooking the sea.” The Guardian profiled the artist in June; Murillo now lives in London and so qualifies as “an artist working primarily in Britain.”

·      Karime López is the first Mexican woman to receive a Michelin star, according to Washington Post Opinión. She is chef at Gucci Osteria da Massimo Bottura, in Florence, Italy.

Colombia's Escobars Go TelCom

·       Pablo Escobar’s family in Colombia is switching from drugs to telecommunications, according to the tabloid New York Post. "Car-Tel: Escobar now in the Phone Biz: Cell [Phones] are the New Cocaine’, says the colorful cover story. The article appears to have started in the British press like The Daily Mail; The Sun.

(I am substituting for the inimitable Jordana who will return by weeks' end.)

TIAR countries meet in Bogotá (Dec. 3, 2019)

News Briefs

Venezuela

• A meeting of Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (TIAR) countries today in Bogotá does not include civil society representatives -- a fact that 28 leading organizations in Venezuela and other countries in the hemisphere have objected to in a letter that calls for regional governments to "refrain from supporting the use of force, and insist on a political, non-violent solution that restores democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela."

• Opposition leader Juan Guaidó is considered Venezuela's legitimate leader by more than 50 countries -- but his hold on power is excessively fragile, writes Luz Mely Reyes in the Post Opinión. Though Guaidó's faction of opposition parties insists on new presidential elections, he is increasingly vulnerable to Chavista machinations, together with splinter opposition factions. "... Unless something extraordinary happens, democratic forces run the risk of losing this battle," she warns.

Honduras

• Seven men found guilty of killing the Honduran indigenous environmentalist Berta Cáceres have been sentenced to 30 to 50 years. The sentencing comes more than a year after the guilty verdict, reports the Guardian. Cáceres' family and supporters welcomed the sentences, but reiterated demands to bring the masterminds and financiers of the assassination to justice. Her lawyers said evidence in the trial points to the responsibility of the powerful Atala Zablah family, and that the case must not be considered closed, reports Criterio. 

Cuba

• The case of José Daniel Ferrer, a Cuban dissident detained two months ago, shows how the Cuban government continues to repress dissident voices, even as it allows new freedoms, reports the New York Times. Ferrer said he has been tortured while in detention -- the case has garnered widespread international condemnation. 

Haiti

• Thousands of Haitian children returned to school yesterday -- after months of unrest kept institutions around the country shuttered. Though police patrols protected schools, many students stayed home yesterday, reports the Associated Press.

• An active-duty U.S. Marine was indicted by U.S. prosecutors on charges of smuggling guns into Haiti. Haitian native Jacques Yves Sebastien Duroseau was detained last month in Port-au-Prince with boxes filled with guns, ammunition and body armor. (McClatchy, New York Times)

• Haitian bishops called politicians -- both in government and in the opposition -- to be self-critical and reach an agreement of historical proportions ahead of the Christmas holidays. (Vatican News)

• Haiti's ongoing crisis highlights the persistent scourge of government corruption, and the need for a strong civil service to counter it. "It would be an illusion to think that a single solution can put an end to corruption in Haiti. But we still argue that the fight must begin with the creation of a new public management system," write a group of experts in the Conversation.

Bolivia

• Bolivian interim-president Jeanine Áñez revoked a decree exempting security forces from criminal responsibility while carrying out operations. The move comes after widespread condemnation from human rights groups -- and after at least 19 civilians were killed in two separate episodes of repression. (EFE)

• A group of international academics and think tanks questioned the OAS audit of Bolivia's Oct. election and called for investigation into the organization's role in the country's crisis. (Guardian)

• Cohete a la Luna reviews questioning of the preliminary report that found severe irregularities in the vote that would have given former president Evo Morales a fourth mandate, and wonders when the OAS will release the pending final report.

• Bolivia's move towards a new electoral process is meant to provide a clean slate after the current institutional crisis -- but democracy will only be restored if they are perceived as free and fair, writes Linda Farthing in the Guardian. Far-right civic leader Luis Camacho, who played a key role in Morales' ouster, will be a candidate. And it remains to be seen who will run for Morales' MAS party, which retains considerable support among voters. Perhaps the key question is whether the Bolivian right would accept an eventual MAS victory, asks Farthing.

• The struggle between Morales' supporters and his ousters has taken on biblical overtones -- literally. But the message from the Vatican towards indigenous communities is very different, and risks putting the Pope in the midst of a conflict between his ideals and the Catholic Church's strongest supporters, reports Foreign Policy.

• Last week Bolivia's interim-government reestablished ties with Israel, part of its drastic reversal of Morales' foreign policy legacy. (Associated Press)

Ecuador

• The United Nations mission investigating the protests that occurred in Ecuador between Oct. 3-13 heard numerous complaints of arbitrary detentions by police and the possible disproportionate use of force, for which it asked that further investigations be permitted into those cases. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, denounced the  “high human cost," of the episode. (EFE, United Nations)

Regional Relations

• Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro learned the hard way that a personal relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump is not much of a guarantee. Brazil's leader and diplomats were blindsided by Trump's decision to reinstate steel tariffs against Brazil and Argentina yesterday, reports the Washington Post. Indeed Bolsonaro's "gambit to push Latin America’s largest country closer to the Trump administration is looking increasingly like a humiliating diplomatic defeat," according to a separate Washington Post piece.

Brazil

• A group of lawyers, public defenders and civil society rights groups -- Aliança -- is collaborating with the defense of four Brazilian volunteer firefighters who the government accused of starting forest fires. (Época, see yesterday's briefs.)

• Brazil leads the world in telephone harassment, a dubious distinction that experts chalk up to a lack of telemarketing regulation combined with overuse of data registration in Brazilians' everyday lives. (Washington Post)

Chile

• Chile's government expressed surprise at the magnitude of economic impact the past month and a half of massive protests have had -- October's economic activity index fell 3.4 percent. (El País)

Mexico

• Members of the LeBarón family met with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador yesterday, and said they want to work with authorities to improve security policies in the wake of a massacre in which 9 members of the extended clan were killed by a criminal group. (Washington Post, see yesterday's post.)

Argentina

• Argentine vice-president-elect Cristina Fernández de Kirchner defended herself in a four-hour court appearance yesterday, in a case accusing her of diverting public works funds, reports the Buenos Aires Times. She strenuously denied the allegations, which she has consistently said are politically motivated. (Página 12 does a deep dive into the accusations themselves.)

Climate Change

• Latin America's inhabitants are increasingly feeling the effects of climate change -- flooding, droughts and hurricanes. -- El País

El Salvador

• El Faro shares (and illustrates) the testimony of El Mozote massacre witnesses.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...  

Latin America Daily Briefing

AMLO defends security policy, gunfight kills 21 in Coahuila (Dec. 2, 2019)

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador celebrated his first year in office yesterday -- amid clashes between security forces and cartel gunmen that killed at least 21 people in Coahuila state. Simultaneously, protesters in Mexico City demanded better security and justice in a country besieged by stubborn rates of violence.

Nonetheless, AMLO defended his security policy and blaming previous governments for militarized responses to organized crime that bely underlying social conditions that promote violence. AMLO pointed to a recent showdown between security forces and Sinaloa Cartel operatives in Culiacán -- in which the military backed down, ostensibly to avoid civilian bloodshed -- as an example of his government's paradigm shift in security strategies. (Animal Político)

But this weekend's two-day gunfight in Coahuila this weekend also showed the pitfalls of AMLO's strategy, which experts say emboldened cartels to go on the offensive. The attack in Villa Unión was believed to be carried out by the Cartel of the Northeast, an offshoot of the once-powerful Zetas. (El País, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post)

Several high-profile security incidents, including the Coahuila gunbattle, present AMLO's government with a significant challenge both locally and internationally. The massacre of nine members of the LeBarón family in November -- three women and six children -- has become emblematic of the country's violence problem, and several members of the prominent Mormon family participated in Sunday's march demanding better security. (Animal Político, Animal Político, New York Times, Washington Post)

This weekend, Mexican authorities detained several suspects implicated in the LeBarón massacre. The López Obrador administration is eager to show advances in the LaBarón massacre case, as well as to reject a U.S. proposal to designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations, a move many Mexicans fear could lead to U.S. military incursions on their territory. “We won’t accept any kind of intervention. We’re a free and sovereign country,” said AMLO yesterday.

 U.S. Attorney General William Barr is expected to meet with Mexico’s Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard to discuss security issues later this week.

Despite poor economic indicators, AMLO retains significant popularity among Mexicans. In part this is because he has poured money into social programs, but also because he has slashed government salaries and focused on connecting with ordinary Mexicans, reports the New York Times. “The power of his leadership is that there is consistency in what he says and what he does,” México Evalúa director Edna Jaime told NYT.

AMLO's year in images at El País.

More Mexico

• Mexico's governing Morena party is advancing against democratic checks on executive power, according to critics, who say a move to replace the head of Mexico’s election watchdog three years before his term ends is just the latest example. (Wall Street Journal)

News Briefs

Suriname

• A Surinamese court convicted the country’s president, Desi Bouterse, of murder for the execution of 15 opponents in 1982 following a coup. Opposition parties called for Bouterse to resign. Bouterse, who has dominated Suriname’s politics in recent decades, has denied the charges and can appeal the decision. (Reuters, Reuters)

Brazil

• Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro falsely accused Hollywood start Leonardo DiCaprio of financing a recent spate of forest fires in the Amazon. Bolsonaro's spurious claims -- which were met with ridicule -- came in a week marked by the arrest of four volunteer fire fighters who police accused of intentionally setting fires in order to solicit aid donations. They were released on a judges orders, but critics point to a concerted government attempt to harass environmental activists, reports Reuters. (See also the Guardian.)

• In a region beset by debates over how to define contemporary authoritarianism, the metaphor of a frog gradually boiled to death in a pot is pertinent, argues Open Society Foundations' Latin America Program director, Pedro Abramovay, in Piauí. Twenty-first century authoritarianism is a slow-creep, rather than the military tanks of yesteryear, he writes, criticizing the detention of the volunteer firefighters. It is fundamental that we not normalize what is not acceptable in a democracy, he argues. "There are no possible concessions on this issue."

• DiCaprio rejected the accusations, and said he remains “committed to supporting the Brazilian indigenous communities, local governments, scientists, educators and general public who are working tirelessly to secure the Amazon for the future of all Brazilians.” (New York Times)

• Representing the Bolsonaro administration at this week's United Nations climate change talks was never an easy proposition, but Brazilian technical negotiators are further hampered by a disconnect with the country's political leadership, reports Reuters.

• Nine people were killed in a stampede during a São Paulo police operative at a massive funk event over the weekend. (El País)

Regional Relations

• U.S. President Donald Trump said he would reinstate tariffs on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, in retaliation for what he perceives as the artificial weakening the two countries' currencies, with negative consequences for U.S. agricultural sectors. The announcement surprised analysts who believed the Trump administration would dial-back its adversarial trade approach ahead next year's election campaign. (New York Times, Washington Post, El País)

• Uruguayan president-elect Luis Lacalle Pou said the country's policy towards Venezuela has been an "embarrassment," and signaled a likely shift towards Guaidó. (Infobae, La Diaria) 

Venezuela

• The United Nations estimates that there will be 6.4 million Venezuelans outside of the country by the end of next year, which would make the exodus greater than that from Syria. (El País)

• Hunger is among the many factors hollowing out Venezuela's educational system -- faintings in primary schools have become a commonplace occurrence, reports the New York Times.

• Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó vowed to investigate media allegations that opposition lawmakers unduly advocated for a businessman linked to the government of President Nicolas Maduro. Guaidó said he suspected the legislators received illicit payments in exchange for writing the letters. Armando.info published the initial investigation, which implicates nine legislators from the First Justice, Popular Will and A New Time parties. (Reuters)

Guatemala

• Guatemala’s human rights prosecutor indicted another former top military official for genocide and crimes against humanity committed during the country’s 36-year civil war. Luis Enrique Mendoza Garcia will be tried in March for his role in an operation in the early 1980s that killed at least 1,771 Maya Ixil and displaced thousands, reports Reuters.

• Guatemalan president-elect Alejandro Giammattei's circle of trust includes dubious characters from the country's past who are inching back into the limelight, reports Nómada.

Nicaragua

• Sixteen opposition activists -- detained for taking water to a group of hunger-striking mothers of political detainees -- will be tried on Jan. 30 of 2020, determined a judge on Friday. Rights groups rejected the validity of the case, and say it is another example of harassment against anti-government activists. (Associated Press, Confidencial)

• Social media videos document part of a police attack against a family of activists in León this weekend. The Reyes Alonso family was brutally beaten and attacked in retaliation for their protests against the government, reports Confidencial. (See also this piece in Confidencial.)

• Opposition to Nicaragua's Ortega administration has forged an unlikely alliance between the country's Catholic Church leadership and feminists, reports La Prensa (vía Havana Times).

Climate Change

• Rising temperatures across Asia and the Americas have contributed to multiple severe outbreaks of dengue fever globally over the past six months, making 2019 the worst year on record for the disease, reports the Guardian.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...  

Latin America Daily Briefing