Attack against Colombian Goldman recipient showcases violence against activists (May 7, 2019)

Francia Márquez, one of Colombia’s most-prominent grassroots activists, was attacked by gunmen in the southern town of Santander de Quilichao. Márquez, who won last year's Goldman Environmental Prize for her work fighting illegal gold mining by armed groups in her Afro-Colombian community, survived the attack, reports the Associated Press. 

Nonetheless, the attack highlights the dangers faced by activists in a country where one is killed, on average, every two days, notes Reuters.

Márquez was at an event that gathered 16 other major Afro-Colombian leaders. One receive a Whatsapp threat yesterday warning that Saturday's attack -- which involved a grenade and crossfire with security agents -- was just the beginning, reports La Silla Vacía.

Separately, social conflict has become a hallmark of the Duque administration, particularly in Colombia's Cauca region. President Iván Duque has criminalized protesters though and likened them to guerrillas, reports Nueva Sociedad.

News Briefs

Venezuela

• Costa Rican president Carlos Alvarado inaugurated the third meeting of the International Contact Group (ICG) on Venezuela last night, reports the Tico Times. Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, attended, as did representatives from 11 European and Latin American nations.

• Cuba is reportedly willing to participate in negotiating an exit to the Venezuelan crisis, but would require President Nicolás Maduro to participate, reports Bloomberg. (See yesterday's post.)

• Ending Maduro's regime "is a necessary condition to overcome the crisis," but "it will not automatically stabilize the country politically and economically, even if the international community is patient enough to provide massive aid to Venezuela for years," warns Oliver Stuenkel in Americas Quarterly. Among a slew of other problems, a new government would have to balance a strong popular desire for justice against Chavista violations, while, it would, at the same time, depend on armed forces that will be disinclined to allow investigations into the past. 

• Five people were killed in last week's attempted uprising against the Maduro government in Venezuela, said Foro Penal -- and 82 were detained or disappeared last week. (Efecto Cocuyo)

• U.S. Vice President Mike Pence is set to offer new incentives to Venezuela’s military to turn against President Nicolás Maduro, according to Reuters. (See yesterday's post.)

• The narrative, particularly in mainstream media, that Maduro's government is crumbling, is inaccurate and based on misleading material, argues Michael Fox in The Nation.

• Venezuela’s central bank has begun using piles of cash rather than electronic transfer to sell foreign exchange to local banks, reports Reuters.

Panama

• Panama's president-elect Laurentino “Nito” Cortizo, said the United States should pay more attention to Central America or risk losing ground to China in the region, reports Reuters.

• Cortizo won Sunday's presidential election by an unexpectedly close margin. (See yesterday's post.) The campaign was marked by anti-establishment fervor: A grassroots anti-corruption campaign with the twitter hashtag #NoALaReleeccion,  may have had an impact, with voters throwing out more than 20 of the 49 incumbents who had sought to retain their seats, reports Bloomberg.

Brazil

• Brazilian police shot dead eight people in one of Rio de Janeiro's biggest slums, just days after a report showing a record number of police killings in this year's first quarter, reports AFP. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• Rio de Janeiro state governor, Wilson Witzel, tweeted a video from a helicopter while observing a police operation in which shots were reportedly fired by the forces, reports the Guardian.

Haiti

• The key witness in a case of U.S. drug agency agents accused of wrongdoing in Haiti has been extradited to the U.S., where he faces of conspiring to distribute cocaine and heroin, reports the Miami Herald.

Honduras

• Reporting on Central American gangs often focuses on the big picture -- but a New York Times report looks at the turf war in a small neighborhood of San Pedro Sula, a glimpse of street gang strife in great detail.

Argentina

• Argentine President Mauricio Macri wants to calm volatile markets ahead of this year's presidential election with a "basic consensus" to be accorded with opponents, including former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, reports Reuters.

Mexico

• Mexican demonstrators held the first major protest against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Sunday -- several thousand people marched in Mexico city demanding his resignation, reports Reuters.

• Nonetheless, five months after his swearing-in, his approval ratings range between 60 and 86 percent, reports the BBC. 

• Mexican will launch a criminal probe into Brazilian construction conglomerate Odebrecht SA within 60 days, said the country's attorney general. (Reuters) The case against Odebrecht graft in Mexico has been stalled, particularly compared with other countries in the region such as Peru, notes Proceso. (See post for Oct. 23, 2017.)

Regional Relations

• Mexico is not willing to accept a stronger labor enforcement mechanism in the new North American trade pact, and will not reopen negotiations on the agreement, a top official told Politico. Mexican lawmakers just approved a landmark labor reform law required by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. (See April 30's briefs.)

Militarization

• Latin American militaries are enjoying a boom of power unseen since the Cold War -- but strengthening their peace-time role is breaking down " hard-won safeguards against repeating the abuses of the past," write Brett J. Kyle & Andrew G. Reiter in NACLA. 

• Militarization of public security in recent decades has made Latin America the most lethal region in the world, writes Aram Barra in Este País. "Faced with the regional violence crisis, new political leaders don't seem to understand the magnitude and complexity of the problem. Few Latin American politicians are talking about effective gun and munitions control, more intelligent drug policies, or truly combatting corruption -- all issues with more violence reduction impact than military presence on the streets.

Latin America Daily Briefing

Cortizo wins in Panama (May 6, 2019)

Laurentino "Nito" Cortizo won Panama's presidential election yesterday, in a race that turned out to be unexpectedly close. 

Cortizo had 33 percent of the votes, while his closest opponent, Romulo Roux, had 31 percent. Roux, from former President Ricardo Martinelli's right-wing Democratic Change party, alleged irregularities and refused to concede. (There is no runoff in Panamanian elections.) Panama's electoral authorities unofficially declared Cortizo the winner this morning, with 95 percent of the votes tallied. The final announcement will be Thursday. (BBC, Deutsche Welle, Bloomberg)

Cortizo, a member of the Democratic Revolutionary Party candidate held a double-digit lead in most polls ahead of the election. Voters were outraged by a recent spate of government corruption scandals, reports Al Jazeera.

Citizens also cast votes for 71 legislators, and hundreds of local officials. Corruption scandals implicating the past two administrations and all three main political parties have helped create favorable conditions for independent candidates.

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Venezuela's ongoing power struggle

Protests this weekend in Venezuela were small, perhaps reflecting frustration with last week's botched ouster attempt, reports the Guardian. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó defended the plot this weekend. Though President Nicolás Maduro's top aides ultimately didn't defect, he said the efforts deepened fractures among Venezuela's military and government, reports ABC News. 

However, the greatest threat to the push against Maduro may be fractions within the opposition itself, reports the Washington Post. Guaidó must face the enmity of the Maduro government, but also the challenge of maintaining unity within the factious oppositions ranks and disillusionment among citizen supporters of his cause, reports El País.

The existence of a plan to turn against Maduro by high-level officials, though failed, still indicates schisms that could grow, said Guaidó's mentor Leopoldo López and U.S. special envoy to Venezuela Elliot Abrams, among others. But analysts say divisions in the military are not so clear. "There is no evidence of deep rifts within the [Venezuelan] armed forces," WOLA expert David Smilde told the Los Angeles Times. "If there were, Maduro would quickly act upon it." (Several experts believe instead that the opposition and U.S. officials, were duped by Maduro allies, see below.)

Guaidó told the BBC that he would consider asking the U.S. to intervene. He welcomed U.S. statements that all options are under evaluation, but also said he will take any U.S. offer to the National Assembly for a vote, he told the Washington Post.

The U.S. in turn might not seek Congressional approval of a military plan, according to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. He said the Trump administration is preparing a broad range of options to support Guaidó, that include "diplomatic options, political options, options with our allies and then ultimately a set of options that would involve use of U.S. military." He also called for (other) countries to stop meddling in Venezuela: "We want the Venezuelan people not to have interference from any country, whether it's China or Russia. (Washington Post, NPR, Fox News)

In turn, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov urged the United States to abandon its “irresponsible” plan to overthrow Maduro. He spoke with Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza in Moscow yesterday. (Guardian, Reuters, EFE)

The back-and-forth belied the good-will apparently expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump in a Friday phone call. Trump said they agreed that humanitarian aid is a priority for the country. (Reuters) Russia said that Trump initiated the phone call, and that Putin emphasized that outside intervention in Venezuela only undermines prospects for a political settlement. (Washington Post)

Maduro appeared with troops at a military academy in Cojedes state, on Saturday, an attempt to portray strength in the wake of the attempted uprising, reports the New York Times. Seven Venezuelan military officers were killed over the weekend when their helicopter crashed on the way to Cojedes.

The International Contact Group for Venezuela meets today in Costa Rica on a ministerial level, reports Efecto Cocuyo. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said he spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about finding a dialogue-based solution to Venezuela's crisis, reports EFE.

Operación Libertad

Luz Mely Reyes provides the most complete account of what is known about last week's attempted ouster. She emphasizes that a Supreme Court ruling was to form the backbone of Operación Libertad. It would have empowered the National Assembly to take executive actions, eliminated Maduro's supra-congressional National Constituent Assembly, freed political prisoners, and called new elections. 

The basics of Operación Libertad are now known: key figures of the armed forces would defect, sending a message to the military at large to switch sides. Maduro would leave to Cuba "in dignity," while the rest of his cabinet would keep their jobs. This much had been written out in a document. What is less clear is if Operación Libertad was a real plan or a trap, reports the Guardian in a good recap of the last week in Venezuela's crisis.

Others hypothesize that Maduro officials were spooked when opposition leader Leopoldo López was sprung from house arrest and appeared in Guaidó's video calling for an uprising, reports the Washington Post.

Guaidó suggested he overestimated military defections against Maduro when he called for an uprising last Tuesday, reports the Washington Post.

But the Associated Press reports that in recent years the U.S. rebuffed opportunities for back-channel contact with high level Venezuelan officials -- including Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and Gen. Ivan Hernández, head of both the presidential guard and military counterintelligence, two key supporters who allegedly were planning to defect as part of Operación Libertad, but ultimately didn't.

The ultimate lesson of the past week is that "it is not time to improvise, but to design and agree on an institutional exit," writes Alberto Barrera Tyszka in a New York Times Español op-ed.

More from Venezuela

• A military ouster of Maduro does not necessarily mean a Guaidó government or an immediate democratic transition warn Michael Shifter and Bruno Binetti in a New York Times op-ed from last week.

• U.S. sanctions are not responsible for Venezuela's economic collapse, argue Ricardo Hausmann and Frank Muci in Americas Quarterly. They defend the sanctions are a tool to pressure Maduro, and say that "perverse policies and extreme mismanagement explain the bulk of Venezuela’s collapse." The piece is a rebuttal to a recent report by Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, and Jeffrey Sachs, which  found that sanctions reduced Venezuelan citizens' access to food, increased disease and mortality, and displaced millions. (See April 26's briefs.)

News Briefs

Migration

• U.S. officials constantly offer praise and sympathy to Venezuelans -- but they are not offering asylum. The Trump administration has resisted using Temporary Protected Status (TPS), a program that allows people of certain nationalities to remain and work in the U.S. for a period of time. (Guardian)

• The U.S. Trump administration is still pushing for Mexico to sign a "safe third country" agreement, which would allow U.S. authorities to turn back asylum seekers at the border with Mexico. The problem is, Mexico has little incentive and still less resources to do such a thing, argues León Krauze in a Washington Post opinion piece.

• Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has done a complete about face on migration in just three months: from promises of welcome and humanitarian treatment, to roundups and deportations, writes Oscár Martínez in a New York Times Español op-ed. On the issue of migration AMLO accepted an "absurd game of opposites," he writes, that Mexico must either be the U.S.'s anti-immigrant wall, or just let everybody pass freely. In the middle, are viable solutions, Martínez argues. 

Mexico

• AMLO's war on fuel theft made impressive gains in just a few months -- 95 percent reduction since January. But critics say the gains against the criminal networks behind the industry are just temporary, reports the New York Times.

• Mexican radio journalist Telésforo Santiago Enríquez was killed last week in Oaxaca state, underscoring Mexico's ongoing status as one of the most dangerous countries in the world for reporters. (Washington Post)

• Violence against women in Mexico has been met with indifference and impunity say rights groups, particularly notable in femicide investigations -- or lack thereof. (Wall Street Journal)

Nicaragua

• A year after Nicaragua's massive protests, street demonstrations have died down, but government repression has not, writes Carlos Salinas Maldonado in Americas Quarterly. "Nicaragua has become a grim example of how quickly press freedom can be eroded, with journalists threatened, criminalized and attacked for doing their jobs. My case is a prime example."

Peru

• Odebrecht corruption investigators and witnesses are facing threats from a “radical group” dubbed the “Fuerza de Choque,” or “Shock Force,” within Peru's Partido Aprista Peruano political party, said a Peruvian prosecutor. Indeed, whistleblowing on Odebrecht seems to come with risks, notes InSight Crime, in Colombia, at least four individuals key to the Odebrecht investigation have either died mysteriously or been seriously injured.

Brazil

• Police killed 434 people in Rio de Janeiro state in the first three months of the year -- an increase of 18 percent over the same period last year, and a record high, reports the Associated Press. Governor Wilson Witzel, who took office in January, campaigned on a promise of zero-tolerance against criminals. He confirmed plans this year for a "shoot to kill" policy.

• A Brazilian movement that claims teachers are indoctrinating students with leftist ideology has gained traction, and support from President Jair Bolsonaro. They have called for students to film their teachers to prove partisanship, a move critics say distracts from real issues affecting Brazil's education system, reports the Guardian.

• Amid a growing wave of protest, Bolsonaro cancelled his upcoming New York trip. He was to be feted by the Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce, but faced mounting criticisms from venues and sponsors who refused to back his history of homophobic, racist and misogynist remarks, along with detrimental environmental policies. (Guardian, Washington Post, and New York Times)

Literary Corner

• After Maria is a graphic novella by Dr Gemma Sou and John Cei Douglas about a Puerto Rican family’s recovery from Hurricane Maria. Excerpt at the Guardian.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing

Correction May 3, 2019

Today I inadvertently mistranslated Dimitri Pantalous' op-ed, in a way that very much changed his meaning. Apologies for any misunderstandings that might have arisen as a result, I very much aimed to share his original analysis, not that expressed in the misquote.

The quote should have read:

The uprising and its repression ultimately demonstrate "that the country's main political factions are stagnant and have exhausted tactics and strategies that prioritize use of force over political negotiation. This catastrophic tie impedes governability and generates chaos and instability at any minimum fluctuation between the forces in conflict, which worsens the Venezuelan's tragic situation even more," writes Dimitris Pantoulas in a New York Times Español op-ed.

Venezuela protests fizzle (May 3, 2019)

Venezuela returned to a semblance of frustrated normalcy yesterday, after two days of protests and clashes with security forces. Four people died and dozens were wounded in a quashed attempt to oust President Nicolás Maduro that started Tuesday. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó called for ongoing protests and civil disobedience, but efforts fizzled, reports the Washington Post. Yesterday he called for further action -- a strike, street mobilizations, and envoys to convince military troops to switch sides -- on Twitter, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

Maduro mustered troops in a televised act yesterday, an event apparently designed to further undermine Guaidó's claim to a military revolt against the government, reports the New York Times. “How many would die if there is a civil war here because of their insanity?” Maduro said in his remarks to the troops, in which he framed the ouster as a U.S. backed-coup and prelude to U.S. invasion.

The pro-Maduro Supreme Court issued an arrest warrant for opposition leader Leopoldo López, who escaped from house arrest on Tuesday and has taken refuge in the Caracas Spanish Embassy. (López held a press conference in the embassy yesterday, Efecto Cocuyo reports.) However, the court did not issue a warrant for Guaidó's arrest, notes the Washington Post. (See yesterday's and Wednesday's posts.) 

The Supreme Court also accepted treason charges against the National Assembly vice president, Edgar Zambrano, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

At least 20 National Guard members who participated in the coup attempt sought asylum in the Brazilian Embassy in Caracas.

Operación Libertad 

Operación Libertad's plan involved a comprehensive route for a transitional government, according to the U.S. special envoy for Venezuela, Elliot Abrams. He said failed plan to oust President Nicolás Maduro involved an agreement for Guaidó to be interim president, the current Supreme Court president and Defense Minister to keep their posts, and new elections within a year, reports the Guardian. (See yesterday's and Wednesday's posts.) Specifically the plan called for Venezuela's Supreme Court to declare Maduro's National Constituent Assembly illegitimate, underlining the opposition-led National Assembly's position as the country's strongest democratically elected organ, according to U.S. national security adviser John Bolton.

Guaidó moved the plan up by a day on Tuesday after Maduro reportedly caught wind of the plot. This possibly contributed to its failure as the military was not covered by a Supreme Court decision as was supposedly planned. Others speculate that Venezuelan defense minister Vladimir Padrino tricked the opposition into believing they had a deal. (Guardian)

Nonetheless, the participation of the Sebin intelligence agency head, who subsequently fled the country, indicates that a broader plot with military participation was organized, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

A coup is a game of confidence, and Guaidó failed on several fronts to create a sense of inevitability and secure support of the country's power brokers, according to a New York Times Interpreter column.

Operación Libertad's ultimate failure raises questions about whether the U.S. had faulty intelligence about the opposition's likelihood of successfully convincing Maduro officials to switch sides, reports the New York Times. (Fulton Armstrong's take on the U.S. intelligence failures regarding the episode at Consortium News.)

The uprising and its repression ultimately demonstrate "that the country's main political factions are stagnant and have exhausted tactics and strategies that prioritize political negotiation over use of force. This catastrophic tie impedes governability and generates chaos and instability at any minimum fluctuation between the forces in conflict, which worsens the Venezuelan's tragic situation even more," writes Dimitris Pantoulas in a New York Times Español op-ed.

News Briefs

Honduras

• Several journalists covering May Day protests in Tegucigalpa were attacked, reports Tiempo. (See Tuesday's post on repression of protests earlier this week in Honduras.)

Regional Relations

• U.S. President Donald Trump nominated a controversial career diplomat to become the country's new ambassador to Colombia. Philip Goldberg was expelled from Bolivia, where he served as ambassador, by President Evo Morales, after the diplomat allegedly met with members of the right-wing opposition. (Guardian)

Colombia

• Colombia's attorney general said a criminal network angled to intercept Constitutional Court magistrates' communications, with the goal of discrediting and extorting some of the judges. Judge  Jorge Enrique Ibáñez, who is investigating Odebrecht corruption said earlier this week that he and a fellow member of the court gathered evidence that they were being illicitly monitored. (Semana, Caracol)

Migration

• More than 1.2 million Venezuelans are now living in Colombia, a figure that could hit 2 million by the end of 2019, reports the Miami Herald.

• Moving to the U.S. comes with a series of application and processing fees -- asylum application traditionally hasn't. A new Trump administration policy seeks to impose a processing fee, that undermines the very nature of humanitarian asylum seeking, argues the Washington Post.

Cuba

• At least two suits have already been filed against Carnival in Miami, part of the Trump administration's new policy allowing people to seek compensation against companies that do business with properties confiscated in Cuba sixty years ago, reports the New York Times. (See April 18's post.)

Mexico

• Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador promised to help a murdered journalist's son at yesterday's daily press conference. Carlos Dominguez asked the president for help at the briefing -- López Obrador said his administration would ask the federal Attorney General’s Office to take over the case from state prosecutors. (Associated Press)

Brazil

• Brazil's government is experimenting with school's co-run by police, an attempt to model the country's well-regarded military colleges. Under the model, teaching remains in the hands of the Education Ministry, while police officers oversee discipline and enforce a new code of conduct, reports the Associated Press.

• Women funkeiras have brought a feminist perspective to Brazilian funk, a hip-hop derived music genre criticized for promoting violence -- they're no less rude, but they espouse women's rights, reports the Economist's Sarah Maslin.

• A number of companies have cancelled their sponsorship of an event honoring Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in New York, a sign of how his environmental policies and derogatory statements about LGBT people are controversial abroad as well as at home. The Financial Times, Bain & Company and Delta Airlines have pulled out of the Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce event scheduled for later this month. It was to be held in the American Museum of Natural history, but the venue had to be changed following a public outcry, that included Mayor Bill de Blasio. (Guardian)

Haiti

• Haitian authorities said the suspected Savane Pistache gang leader was killed in a gunfight with police. The gang is suspected of fatally shooting five people and injuring seven others last week, reports the Associated Press. (See last Friday's brief.)

Argentina

• An embattled worker-occupied printing press in Buenos Aires is strongly influenced by it's women's committee, which has led workers to radically rethink sexist divisions and implement policies such as a day off for menstruation, six month paid maternity leave, wage gender parity, and a sick day for children. (NACLA)

St. Lucia

• A cruise ship operated by the Church of Scientology has been quarantined off the coast of St Lucia following a confirmed case of measles onboard. (Guardian)

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefinga

Guaidó and Maduro stalemated again for now (May 2, 2019)

Thousands of demonstrators gathered in Caracas yesterday to push for President Nicolás Maduro's ouster. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó, considered the country's legitimate president by a chunk of the population and the international community, sought to recapture momentum after an attempted uprising on Tuesday failed to overthrow the government. Nonetheless, there are signs that the crisis is again settling into a political stalemate. (See yesterday's post.)

Opposition leaders said 23 protests around the country were violently repressed on Wednesday -- of a total 397 planned demonstrations. They tallied 78 wounded and 89 people detained, reports Efecto Cocuyo. A dozen press workers were harassed covering anti-government protests around the country, according to the National Press Workers' Union. (Efecto Cocuyo) Yesterday the U.N. human rights office voiced concern over reports of excessive use of force by security forces against demonstrators.

Security forces clashed with protesters in eastern Caracas yesterday, and killed one person. There were reports that armed pro-government forces used live fire against some protesters in Altamira. Chacao’s health authorities said 39 protesters were injured yesterday, reports the New York Times. The defense minister, Vladimir Padrino, said on Twitter that eight soldiers had been wounded by firearms while “confronting coup violence.”

Experts note that in the past such protests have led to further repression.

The country's military remained mostly loyal to Maduro. And thousands of Maduro supporters turned out for a pro-government demonstration in Caracas. Many were bused in from around the country, a sign of the government's desire to portray strength, according to the New York Times.

Speaking yesterday, Maduro decreed two days of open critique on Saturday and Sunday, an unusual step. (Washington Post)

Guaidó called for a series of daily strikes against Maduro to start today with public sector workers, reports the Wall Street Journal. He termed it a "gradual strike," that would eventually become a general strike and paralyze the country. Guaidó encouraged strikers to wear a blue armband, the symbol that identified the few military troops who supported the opposition cause on Tuesday, reports the Washington Post. Given the country's deep recession, which already has most businesses operating at minimum capacity, it's not clear what impact the strike plan will have, reports the New York Times.

Today reports said civil servants would be asked to wear armbands to work in a show of civil disobedience. (Washington Post)

Operación Libertad

Guaidó's sudden call on Tuesday for an uprising against Maduro took many by surprise, including fellow participants in what has been dubbed "Operación Libertad." Guadió apparently moved up the timetable when Maduro got wind of the plan on Monday. The opposition had developed a comprehensive plan to oust Maduro, that included several top government military and civilian officials, reports the Washington Post. The talks involved the highest levels of the government, including Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, Supreme Court Chief Justice Maikel Moreno and the presidential guard commander and head of military intelligence, Gen. Iván Rafael Hernández, said U.S. officials. (Wall Street Journal) The Venezuelans were allegedly willing to sign documents declaring their loyalty to the Venezuelan constitution, in exchange for which they would be allowed to keep their jobs under a new transition government, or flee the country.

But as Luz Mely Reyes reported Tuesday, many Maduro officials appear to have backed down when the plan was moved up. U.S. envoy for Venezuela Elliott Abrams told EFE that high level officials who had been negotiating with the U.S. had turned off their cell phones in recent days.

What next?

Though Maduro is unpopular, the fact that he retains armed forces support, coupled with divisions among the opposition, leave many Venezuelans with the feeling that they are choosing between two bad options, according to the Wall Street Journal.

After the attempted uprising, Maduro has not arrested Guaidó. Rather he is allowing his foe room to maneuver and lead rallies. It's a smart bet for the government, WOLA expert Geoff Ramsey told Bloomberg: "Maduro understands that, strategically, it’s in his interest to watch Guaido unravel on his own ... By arresting Guaido, he would give the opposition a rallying cry." 

International reactions

Guaidó's ongoing freedom is also a sign of wariness regarding potential domestic and international consequences to detaining him, notes the Washington Post.

“Military action is possible,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox Business Network yesterday. “If that’s what’s required, that’s what the United States will do.”  Top U.S. national security aides held an emergency meeting yesterday, but there was no news reported on their conclusions. Top Pentagon officials emphasized nonmilitary options and said they had not been given orders to pre-position troops or prepare for conflict, reports the Washington Post.

Despite near constant military blustering from the U.S., David Smilde notes there appears to be no plan to actually intervene with troops in Venezuela. "What’s clear is that the U.S. has no military assets anywhere around Venezuela right now. It’s not in a position that it could really do anything. And I don’t think there’s a whole lot of appetite among the American public for this… But it can’t be counted out… "

On the other hand, if Guaidó's push is ultimately unsuccessful, U.S. President Donald Trump could face a major setback, reports Reuters. In an interview yesterday with Fox News, Trump said: “We are doing everything we can do, short of, you know, the ultimate." (Guardian)

The Russian foreign ministry said the U.S. was violating international law by interfering in Venezuela’s internal affairs and threatening its leader. “The continuation of such aggressive steps is fraught with the gravest consequences,” it said. (Wall Street Journal)

U.S. officials have reiterated calls for Russia and Cuba to withdraw support for Maduro. U.S. officials have said Cuba has 20,000 to 25,000 military and intelligence personnel in Venezuela. Cuba has repeatedly denied it has troops in the country, reports Reuters.

Pressure against Maduro could also come from Brazil and Colombia's military, who could aid in persuading senior military leaders to switch sides, Eric Farnsworth, a former US diplomat and the vice-president of the Council of the Americas, told the Guardian.

The current crisis only confirms the necessity "for a political, peaceful, democratic and Venezuelan-owned solution to the crisis, in the framework of the country’s Constitution," said the International Contact Group for Venezuela, a European Union led initiative aimed at holding free and fair elections in Venezuela. Ministers from the group will meet next week in Costa Rica.

More from Venezuela

• A Venezuelan intelligence agency dossier on Tareck El Aissami, appears to demonstrate how the top Maduro government official and his family have helped sneak Hezbollah militants into the country, gone into business with a drug lord and shielded 140 tons of chemicals believed to be used for cocaine production, reports the New York Times.
• Erik Prince - the founder of the controversial private security firm Blackwater - has been pushing a plan to deploy a private army against Maduro, according to Reuters.

News Briefs

Guatemala

• Guatemalan lawmakers are on the brink of approving a law that would punish women for naturally occurring abortions. "Wrongful" accidental abortions could be punished with up to four years of jail if the woman had previous knowledge of the pregnancy. The measure is punitive towards women who suffer obstetric complications, and also the doctors who treat them, who would be legally required to report such cases as "wrongful" abortions. The so-called Law for the Protection of Life and Family is backed by a the National Evangelical Movement. (Nómada, El Periódico)

Honduras

• Honduran lawmakers backed down from education and health reforms that could have privatized some services, after Tegucigalpa protests on Monday were violently repressed. (Associated Press)

El Salvador

• Street gangs in El Salvador are attacking police in order to pressure incoming president Nayib Bukele to negotiate with them, said President Salvador Sánchez Cerén. (Associated Press)

• Univisión and El Faro were awarded the King of Spain's Digital Journalism prize for their coverage of Central American migration. (Univisión)

Mexico

• Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador urged U.S. lawmakers to ratify the new free trade agreement that is meant to replace NAFTA -- the USMCA. He noted that Mexico passed required labor reforms, paving the way for U.S. approval, reports EFE. (See Tuesday's briefs.)

• Mexican Senators failed to pass an education reform bill by one vote, sending AMLO's project back to the House of Deputies, reports Animal Político.

• Mexico’s economy contracted in the first quarter of the year, a challenge for AMLO's new government, reports the Wall Street Journal.

• U.S. drug addicts have increasingly switched from heroin to fentanyl – an ultra-potent synthetic opioid. The swap is likely to achieve what the militarized war against drugs has not been able to do: destroy Mexico's opium market, reports the Guardian.

• The Guardian profiles the work of Mexican investigative journalist Anabel Hernández, who chronicled the corruption underlying the infamous Ayotzinapa disappearance case.

Peru

• Public anger has spurred tough measures from Peru's anti-corruption prosecutors, who have sought pre-trial detention for high profile officials accused of Odebrecht related graft -- including all the country's former presidents since the year 2000. These do nothing to strengthen fragile institutions, and contribute to political weakness that is harmful, argues Carlos Meléndez in a New York Times Español op-ed. "A judicial reform, with a long-term sustainable social legitimacy, requires institutionalizing the fight against corruption, which implies, as a first step, prioritizing respect for fundamental liberties in anticipation of sentences."

• Former Peruvian president Alan García's suicide as he was being detained in a corruption case has cast a spotlight on the pre-trial detention practise. But accusations that the press caused the death show "the ongoing, frequent harassment and criminalization experienced by journalists and human rights defenders in Peru," according to WOLA. "... Investigative journalist Gustavo Gorriti and his news website, IDL-Reporteros, reported receiving multiple threats after a sitting Member of Congress and a former minister blamed the news media, and Gorriti specifically" for García's suicide. (See last Thursday's briefs.)

Paraguay

• Like many other countries with a long history of systemic corruption, Paraguay faces "huge obstacles in eradicating the blight, since it infects the very institutions, political and judicial, that are needed to fight it," explains the New York Times editorial board in a discussion of protesters who aim to shame officials accused of illicit acts (escraches). "Opponents of the escraches have responded that they can turn violent, that reputations are being destroyed without a hearing, that families are being terrorized." But activists view protests and public humiliation as weapons of last resort, "in a society that seems locked in an unbreakable cycle of corruption." (See April 23's briefs.)

Brazil

• Brazil’s job market weakened in the first quarter, with 13.4 million people out of work, reports Bloomberg.

Argentina

• Argentine labor unions called a two day strike on Tuesday (Wednesday was a national holiday), in protest of the government's austerity policies, reports Al Jazeera.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing

Bloody clashes in Caracas, more protests expected today (May 1, 2019)

Venezuela's protracted leadership crisis descended into physical confrontations between government loyal armed-forces and anti-government protesters, backed by rebellious security forces yesterday. Ultimately, as of yesterday evening, neither was able to declare victory. Though both sides insisted they have military backing, there was no mass military defection yesterday. At least one person died in clashes yesterday, and dozens were wounded by rubber bullets, tear gas and live ammunition around the country.

Opposition leader Juan Guaidó -- who declared himself interim president in January -- launched the day with a dawn video shot at a Caracas military base, calling for supporters to take to the streets in a peaceful revolution to support military factions willing to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro -- Operación Libertad. Yesterday evening he urged citizens to take to the streets today, May 1, for a mass demonstration against Maduro. (Efecto Cocuyo)

Maduro was silent throughout most of yesterday. But in a televised evening address he qualified Guaidó's move as a "deceptive coup," and that the armed forces with Guaidó had been tricked into appearing in the video. Surrounded by the country's military and political elite, Maduro promised to punish coup plotters. Maduro also called for his supporters to stage “a large, millions-strong march of the working class” today. (Efecto Cocuyo)

Efecto Cocuyo reports that Operación Libertad was not just an opposition plot. It was reportedly planned with the U.S., the Sebin intelligence agency, Supreme Court president  Maikel Moreno, and some high level generals. The idea was for Moreno to pave the way for Maduro's ouster with a judicial decree. The uprising was planned for May 2. Guaidó appears to have jumped the gun, possibly because of plans to arrest him. And the support he expected did not materialize. (Washington Post) And military commanders appear to have backed down, leaving Guaidó unsupported, said Efecto Cocuyo editor Luz Mely Reyes on Twitter yesterday. Other sources, say Guaidó did not receive U.S. planning support or resources for yesterday's move. (Guardian)

An alleged letter from Manuel Ricardo Cristopher Figuera, the feared SEBIN intelligence agency, circulated yesterday, saying it's time to "rebuild the country," reports the Associated Press. He lamented that corruption has become so rampant that "many high-ranking public servants practice it like a sport."

U.S. statements yesterday appear to back the report of a broad plan to overthrow Maduro. John Bolton, the White House national security adviser, said top Maduro officials had committed to transitioning power to Guaidó. He named Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, Moreno, and Rafael Hernández Dala, the commander of Mr. Maduro’s presidential guard. He reiterated calls throughout the day for these officials to support Guaidó, an unsuccessful ploy to force their hand. He tweeted: "Your time is up. This is your last chance. Accept interim president Guaidó’s amnesty, protect the Constitution, and remove Maduro, and we will take you off our sanctions list. Stay with Maduro, and go down with the ship."

But Padrino spoke on television yesterday afternoon, also flanked by soldiers, and called Guaidó's move “an attempt at a coup, without a doubt, at a mediocre level.”

The U.S. energetically backed Guaidó yesterday, and high level officials claimed Maduro and senior leaders were prepared to fly to Cuba yesterday but remained in the country in response to Russian pressure. In his address yesterday evening, Maduro strenuously denied a plan to flee. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a “full and complete embargo” and more economic sanctions on Cuba if Maduro does not back down. He accused Cuban "Troops and Militia" of conducting military operations in the country to cause "death and destruction to the Constitution of Venezuela."

Violent clashes were reported in five states yesterday, featuring tear gas, rubber bullets, and reports of live ammunition. Rather than a massive protest movement, the day devolved into brutal street battles, reports the Miami Herald. Provea reported at least 60 wounded in Caracas, and the Observatorio de Conflictividad Social tallied 109 around the country. At least 25 people were detained Tuesday, according to Foro Penal. (Photos at New York Times)

The focal point was in the environs of the La Carlota military base, on the Francisco Fajardo highway. There at least 20 members of the Bolivarian National Guard switched to Guaidó's side and identified themselves with a blue armband. They were supported by hundreds of protesters. But they were ultimately repelled by Maduro-loyal armed forces and armed paramilitary groups. (Efecto Cocuyo) Videos show armored vehicles driving into a crowd of demonstrators, and then being set on fire. (Washington Post)

Among the many surprises yesterday, was opposition leader Leopoldo López, who appeared in Guaidó's pre-dawn video. López is one of the opposition's most prominent voices, but has been sidelined by prison stints since 2014. Police and intelligence agents apparently cooperated to break him out of house arrest and deactivated his electronic ankle monitor. He was "pardoned" by Guaidó, said supporters. Efecto Cocuyo reports that he cut off his own ankle monitor with pliers. Yesterday López was sheltered in the Chilean embassy, with his family, and later the Spanish embassy.

As of yesterday evening, Guaidó's whereabouts remained unknown.

The gambit was extremely risky say experts. "If Maduro can successfully put down the rebellion, it will be a strong signal that he still enjoys a high degree of military support, which in turn will probably deflate the opposition," Eurasia Group analyst Risa Grais-Targow told the Miami Herald. The Wall Street Journal quotes analysts who said the ouster attempt appeared disorganized and could backfire and result in greater repression.

Nonetheless, Maduro also appeared weak yesterday -- he remained silent for most of the day.

Throughout the day yesterday Netblocks reported that access to social media and news sites was increasingly disrupted, but reestablished just before Maduro's evening address.

Dozens of Venezuelan military defectors who are in Colombia gathered at the Cucutá border crossing, but dissipated when no orders came from Caracas. Colombia reported that the border in general remained calm, though migrant flows through unauthorized crossings continued.

It's hard to imagine that there are still readers who have not been closely following the whole crisis since January -- but recaps are always welcome. Here's the New York Times'.

(New York Times, Guardian, Guardian, Guardian, Associated Press, Washington Post, Washington Post, Miami Herald, Miami Herald)

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Latin America Daily Briefing