Climate change and migration (April 8, 2019)

An under analyzed factor driving migration from Central America to the U.S. is climate change, according to several recent pieces. Gang violence and government corruption are major factors pushing people from Central America's northern triangle  to seek asylum in other countries, but they are also impacted by environmental degradation and the impacts of climate change, writes Laura Markham in the Guardian. 

Storms, floods, and droughts are increasing in the region, which means rainfall will be lacking in areas that need it, and flooding will occur elsewhere. Arid regions will continue to encroach on Guatemalan agricultural areas, and  El Salvador is projected to lose 10-28% of its coastline before the end of the century. "How will all those people survive, and where will they go?," she asks.

A spike in immigration to the U.S. from Guatemala -- both families and unaccompanied minors -- is related to a series of climate change related phenomena that have affected the country's rural, mostly indigenous communities, writes Jonathan Blitzer in the New Yorker.

Rising temperatures and declining rainfall are killing crops and jeopardizing farmers’ survival in rural Honduras and pushing families to move to urban areas or out of the country, reports PBS. (SeeFriday's briefs.)

Last year Markham reported for Sierra on how a drought in Central America’s Dry Corridor—a swath of historically arid land that runs through Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador— decimated 80 percent of the region’s maize and bean crops, and pushed the migrant caravan trend. (See below.)

News Briefs

More from Migration

• Human smuggling from Central America to the U.S. is a booming business writes Sarah Kinosian for the Guardian.

• U.S. President Donald Trump continued to argue about the dangers immigration poses to the country, at a roundtable event with border agents and local officials in the border city of Calexio (extremely interconnected with the Mexican city of Mexicali), he said the United States should not allow any more migrants to enter the country because they are overwhelming the immigration system and “our country is full.” (Washington Post)

• Though Trump backed off last week from a threat to immediately shut down the border with Mexico (see Friday's briefs) -- it has effectively been closed by U.S. staffing shortages over the past week, reports the New York Times.

• U.S. of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen -- infamous for her role enforcing last year's migrant family separation policy - resigned yesterday. She was edged out by migration hardliners who believed her border policies to be insufficiently tough, reports CNN. The New York Times reports that Trump demanded her resignation after she pushed back against his recent calls to close ports of entry and stop accepting asylum seekers.

• Lest we forget her role in family separation: "Long after we have forgotten how to spell her name, there will be children suffering from the permanent separation from their parents because Nielsen was too incompetent and inhuman to track them or their parents," writes Richard Wolffe in a Guardian opinion piece.

• Among the many inconsistencies with the U.S.'s immigration policies: the federal government wants to increase visas for temporary foreign workers, even as it contemplates shutting down the border with Mexico, where most of those workers come from, reports theNew York Times.

• The flow of Central American migrant caravans through Mexico has put the country's government under increasing pressure from citizens and the U.S. government, reports the Washington Post. 

Honduras

• Migrants from Honduras are fleeing a society controlled by criminals -- women are particularly vulnerable to rampant gender violence and "the government is doing virtually nothing to protect them and is sometimes itself the predator," argues Sonia Nazario in the New York Times' Sunday Review.

Nicaragua

• Nicaragua's government released another 50 political prisoners on Friday -- bringing the total releases up to about 200. Most were released to house arrest, reports the Associated Press.

• Confidencial reports on the abuses faced by political prisoners in Nicaragua's repression, ranging from rotten food, to abuse of authority, and regular beatings. Prisoners were isolated and refused medical treatment.

Guatemala

• Guatemalan lawmakers backed off an amnesty bill for human rights violations committed during the country's civil war -- but the legislation has not been fully withdrawn and could be pushed through with little warning, writes Frida Ghitis in the Washington Post.

Honduras

• Thousands of protesters demanded Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández's resignation on Friday, part of the Movimiento de Indignados. (AFP)

Mexico

• Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said the government will conduct a census to determine which teachers are working and purge the rest from the payroll, reports theAssociated Press.

• NAFTA overhauls and AMLO's pro-worker stance could lead to a union revolution in Mexico, reports The New Republic.

• Netflix's newly released "Tijuana" series offers an amazing dramatization of the dangers faced by Mexico's journalists. (Animal Político)

Venezuela

• Thousands of Venezuelans protested against the Maduro government on Saturday, and in support of National Assembly leader and presidential challenger Juan Guaidó, reportsReuters.

• The United States targeted oil shipments from Venezuela to Cuba in its latest round of sanctions on Friday. (Reuters)

Cuba

• Hundreds of Cubans marched against animal mistreatment on Sunday, a very rare spontaneous public demonstration, reports EFE.

Brazil

• A fire that killed ten boys in Brazil last year exposed a player development industry that has spun out of control in the country that exposes young boys to abusive irregularities, reports the New York Times.

Peru

• Las Bambas copper mine is expected to be up and running again, after an indigenous tribe ended a two month blockade of the road leading to the Chinese owned mine. (Reuters)

Ecuador

• Amid mounting rumors that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is about to be kicked out of Ecuador's London embassy -- where he's been granted asylum for seven years -- theWashington Post gives a welcome review of how he got there and the twists the case has taken on over the years. (Ecuador denied on Friday that it would kick Assange out, reportedReuters.) 

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing

Guatemalan democracy under threat (April 5, 2019)

News Briefs

Guatemala

• Legal persecution of Guatemalan presidential candidate Thelma Aldana is the latest step towards an authoritarian regime of cooptation, writes Martín Rodríguez Pellecer in a New York Times Español op-ed. Eliminating Aldana, a popular former attorney general is part of President Jimmy Morales' antidemocratic agenda, he writes, noting that the president already controls the Supreme Court, and apparently, the public ministry. The anti-corruption crusader can still appeal an electoral tribunal decision invalidating her candidacy (see Tuesday's briefs), but the challenges will limit her campaign time ahead of the June 16 vote.

• Fourty-four Nobel Prize laureates in various disciplines have signed a letter expressing concern over what they call deteriorating conditions for democracy and human rights in Guatemala, reports the Associated Press. Signatories include Rigoberta Menchu, and call on Guatemalan authorities to safeguard peace and democracy.

Haiti

• The U.N. peacekeeping chief ratified the plan to end the U.N. Stabilization Mission in Haiti, known as MINUJUSTH, in October. (Associated Press)

Colombia

• About 20,000 people have blocked the Pan-American Highway in Colombia, mostly in the state of Cauca, for over three weeks. They are demanding President Iván Duque engage in talks over systemic violence to indigenous communities, reports The New Republic.

• Brazil's Lava Jato investigation is historic, but it's also brought to the fore difficulties in coordinating international corruption investigations in the region, Colombian Inspector General Fernando Carrillo told Americas Quarterly.

Migration

• There is a real crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, but it's a humanitarian rather than a security crisis, write WOLA's Adriana Beltrán, Adam Isacson, and Maureen Meyer. Closing off the border doesn't make any sense for the new flow of migrant families, who are simply seeking to turn themselves in with U.S. authorities and could do so even if legal ports of entry are closed, they note. "Let’s get our minds around it: this is the new pattern, not a temporary surge or distortion."

• Most migrant families at the U.S. border are seeking asylum -- which has changed the whole human trafficking industry, notes the Economist, which criticizes Trump's move to cut aid to Central American countries in retaliation for ongoing flows of migrants. (See Monday's post and Tuesday's.)

• Trump backed off a threat to close the U.S. border with Mexico -- instead he said he'd give Mexico a year to stop illicit drug trafficking and respond first with auto tariffs before shutting down the border. (Politico)

Regional Relations

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said other Latin American countries might join Colombia as a NATO partner, apparently ruling out U.S. President Donald Trump's recent suggestion that Brazil become a full-fledged member of the security alliance. (Reuters)

• Trump's off the cuff attack on Colombian President Iván Duque spurred damage control among Republican lawmakers, reports the Miami Herald. Duque was reportedly "quite upset" by Trump's remarks. (See Monday's briefs.)

• Colombia rejected a Russian warning against foreign military intervention in Venezuela, and affirmed support for a peaceful transition to democracy led by Venezuelans. (Reuters)

• Military intervention in Venezuela could destabilize Colombia and endanger its peace process said Kristina Birke Daniels in an interview with International Politics and Society.

• A group of former intelligence officers and other national security practitioners with many decades of experience -- Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity -- called on Trump to avoid "taking potentially catastrophic military action in response to civil unrest in Venezuela or Russian activities in the Western Hemisphere."

Venezuela

• The multi-pronged U.S. strategy supporting "constitutional regime change" in Venezuela is not working so far, but what else can they do, argues the Economist, which advocates pushing more for negotiation.

• The United States requested that the UN Security Council hold a meeting next week to discuss the worsening humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, reports AFP. (See yesterday's post.)

• The U.S. sent more than two tons of sanitary kits destined for Venezuela to Curaçao, the first time the Caribbean island has been used as a humanitarian aid staging ground, reports EFE.

• The blackouts that afflicted much of Venezuela in March also impacted oil output, reports Bloomberg.

Mexico

• Nafta 2.0 may prove an obstacle to Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's promises of reform, writes Rebecca Watts in NACLA.

• Mexico's ruling Morena party altered a labor bill to meet the renegotiated Nafta requirements after U.S. Democrats threatened to hold up the new deal, reports Bloomberg.

• AMLO's demand that Spain apologize for conquistador era rights violations is a politically solid and fashionable request -- but it's still a mistake, argues the Economist. (See March 26's briefs.)

• A journalist attacked every 16 hours in Mexico -- and 99 percent of the cases going unpunished, according to Article 19. (EFE)

Brazil

• Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is appealing to the very same political horse-trading he denounced on the campaign trail, in order to pass a complicated pension reform bill, reports Reuters.

• Brazilian police killed 11 people who were allegedly planning to blow up two ATM machines in São Paulo state. (Reuters)

• Gunmakers gathered at a Rio de Janeiro fair, hoping to capitalize on the Bolsonaro administration's push to loosen ownership regulations. (Associated Press)

Memory

• Brazilian Education Minister Ricardo Vélez says school textbook coverage of the 1964 military coup will be revised. "Brazilian history shows that what happened on 31 March 1964 was a sovereign decision by Brazilian society," he told Valor Económico. "There will be gradual changes so a fuller version of history can be redeemed," said Vélez. It's part of the Bolsonaro administration's ongoing defense of the military coup that inaugurated a 21 year dictatorship marked by human rights violations and censorship, report the BBC and the Guardian. (See yesterday's briefs and Monday's, among others.)

• But what is happening in Brazil is actually part of a broader trend in Latin America -- conservative governments attacking and revising historical memory narratives about atrocities, argues Laurence Blair in the New Statesman. "... Museums are becoming a fulcrum in a culture war that is gripping the continent."

Paraguay

• Paraguay's conservative shift has left the country's LGBT communities feeling increasingly isolated, reports Reuters.

Honduras

• Among the many drivers of migration: climate change. Rising temperatures and declining rainfall are killing crops and jeopardizing farmers’ survival in rural Honduras and pushing families to move to urban areas or out of the country, reports PBS.

Ecuador

• Ecuadorean authorities denied rumors that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange will be imminently turned out of the country's London embassy. (CNBC)

• A Canadian court ruled against an attempt to force Chevron Corp’s Canadian unit to pay a $9.5 billion judgment handed down in Ecuador agains the U.S. oil company. (Reuters)

Uruguay

• Five years after Uruguay's pioneering cannabis reform, the BBC reports on the national experiment.

Peru

• A British missionary was dead before his body was burned, reports the Guardian. (See Wednesday's briefs.)

• A new initiative at Peru’s national register, Reniec, seeks to register and catalogue names from the country’s 48 indigenous languages -- a shift from a long-standing tradition that forced indigenous parents to give children a "Christian" name for official documents. (Guardian)

Argentina

• Thousands of Argentine's rallied against the Macri administration's austerity measures, reports EFE.

• Argentina's justice system is in the midst of a severe crisis of credibility. High profile corruption cases accuse leading political figures of wrongdoing, but allegations against judicial actors themselves undermine the cases -- all in the midst of a heated electoral year in which corruption scandals play a prominent role. In a New York Times Español op-ed that I wrote with Juan Pappier, of Human Rights Watch, we argue that an international commission of judicial experts could provide a much needed guarantee for a broken judicial system.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing

Venezuela undergoing complex humanitarian emergency - HRW (April 4, 2019)

• "The combination of severe medicine and food shortages within Venezuela, together with the spread of disease across the country’s borders, amounts to a complex humanitarian emergency that requires a full-scale response by the United Nations secretary-general," researchers from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Human Rights Watch said in a new report. The report "documents increased numbers of maternal and infant deaths; the unchecked spread of vaccine-preventable diseases, such as measles and diphtheria; and sharp increases in the transmission of infectious diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis in Venezuela. Available data shows high levels of food insecurity and child malnutrition, as well as of hospital admissions of malnourished children."

• Though much of the commentary on the Venezuelan crisis focuses on the potential for armed conflict -- the current situation will likely result in "a prolonged deadlock – and deeper human suffering," argues David Smilde in the Conversation. U.S. military intervention would likely come at too high a cost -- even more now with Russian troops in the country. And U.S. sanctions appear to be having more of an effect on a suffering population than the entrenched Maduro administration -- which makes a democratic transition harder, Smilde argues, since "Venezuelans, who in their vast majority oppose Maduro, will be concentrating on survival rather than protest."

• Russian troops in Venezuela will increase shortly -- all part of military cooperation, according to government officials. (Efecto Cocuyo)

• Nicolás Maduro's government asked for Russian cooperation to fix the country's ailing electrical grid, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

• The Red Cross recently announced a massive aid initiative -- that both the government and the opposition agreed to. (See Monday's briefs.) The announcement is significant and shows the potential power of "satellite diplomacy" -- "negotiations that engage with rival factions independently rather than requiring them to meet face to face," writes Smilde in the Conversation piece.

• The U.S. is putting together a financial rescue package for Venezuela -- to be implemented in the event of Maduro's ouster -- that would include temporary dollarization, reports Efecto Cocuyo. (See also yesterday's briefs.)

News Briefs

Regional Relations

• The U.S. is considering fully implementing the Helms-Burton act -- which allows Americans to file lawsuits in U.S. courts to seek compensation for property that was confiscated by the Cuban government after Fidel Castro seized power in 1959. It would intensify the U.S. embargo against Cuba. The move would be retaliation for Cuban support for Maduro in Venezuela, reports the Miami Herald.

• Media coverage of a potential border shutdown between the U.S. and Mexico focused a lot on avocados. (See Tuesday's post.) The example is not meant to be flippant, say experts, but rather drive home the potential impact of Trump's threat. "We need to make U.S.-Mexico trade and trade policy and border management tangible,” said Christopher Wilson, deputy director of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute, told the Washington Post.

• Already delays at ports of entry are causing tens of millions of dollars in losses for shippers and logistics companies, reports the Wall Street Journal.

• In the midst of the border war, a New York Times photo-essay looks revisits the contemporary site of the old border, before the Mexican-American War.

• Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador invited El Salvador's president-elect, Nayib Bukele, to tour Chiapas with him. They will look at an ongoing reforestation and development program -- "Sembrando Vida -- that AMLO says could be implemented in Central America. (La Prensa Gráfica)

Mexico

• Mexican development policy is undermined by elite corporate influence on the government, argues Laura Dowley in Nueva Sociedad.

Migration

• An Honduran migrant who fled gang violence at home tells how her toddler was literally ripped from her husbands arms by U.S. immigration officials and kept in government care for a month, leaving the baby with lingering psychological impact -- New York Times op-ed.

Nicaragua

• The latest negotiations between Nicaragua's Ortega administration and an opposition civil society alliance fell apart yesterday without concrete agreements, reports Confidencial. Dialogue foundered on opposition demands for international guarantors and early elections, reports Confidencial separately. The Alianza Cívica said there was no will to dialogue on the part of the government, and that it would focus on implementing partial agreements regarding political prisoner releases.

Guatemala

• Juan Francisco Sandoval, Guatemala's lead anti-corruption prosecutor, told the Associated Press that the government has blocked his investigations in every way possible, and that he fears for his personal safety. 

• Sandoval's position is complicated by attorney general Consuelo Porra's management of ongoing corruption investigations, particularly the timing of one accusing presidential candidate Sandra Torres of illicit financing in 2015, reports Nómada.

• Trouble implementing electoral reform related to campaign media ads means social media -- and dirty campaigning -- will be more relevant than ever in Guatemala's upcoming presidential elections, reports No-Ficción.

• Hundreds of indigenous Achi Mayan survivors, forced to leave their homes by the construction of Chixoy hydroelectric dam in the 1980s, are asking the government to comply with a 2014 agreement to pay reparations for their displacement, reports Al Jazeera.

Argentina

• Argentines are known for taking to the streets -- often with explosive results. In the midst of rising costs, strong austerity policies, and rising poverty and unemployment, many are wondering why there hasn't been more upheaval. In part the answer lies in the legacy of social organization and programs developed over the past 20 years, since the 2001 crisis, according to a thoughtful piece by Tali Goldman in Anfibia. In an electoral year, many activists are also betting on a political solution.

Brazil

• Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's glorification of the country's 1964 military coup has shown the world that the leader lives in a parallel universe -- but that fact is also becoming more clear with his every appearance on the international stage, argues Sylvia Colombo in a New York Times Español op-ed.

• Brazilian military officers -- though mostly retired -- have returned to the country's political scene via the ballot box last year. But though their influence on the Bolsonaro administration has been a moderating force in several key instances -- including Venezuela -- in general the politicization of the armed forces represents a threat to the country's democracy, writes Ignacio Pirotta in Nueva Sociedad.

• A Brazilian judge took a salomonic decision in a paternity case: faced with identical twins, neither of whom would admit paternity, he ordered them both to pay child support. (New York Times)

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing

Venezuela takes away Guaidó's immunity (April 3, 2019)

Venezuela's constituent assembly stripped National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó of parliamentary immunity yesterday. It's seen as a first step for President Nicolás Maduro's government to potentially arrest Guaidó, who is recognized as the country's legitimate leader by over fifty countries, reports the Guardian. Guaidó called on the international community to defend him in case of detention, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

It's the latest in a series of actions the Maduro administration has taken against Guaidó in recent weeks. The government has banned him from traveling, frozen his bank accounts, accused him of terrorism, and prohibited him from holding public office. His chief of staff has been arrested. Nonetheless, the government has refrained from detaining Guaidó, perhaps out of fear of international retaliation, reports the New York Times.

There are signs that Venezuela's slums, once strongholds of Chavista fervor, are turning against the Maduro government. But that hasn't translated into support for challenger Guaidó yet -- another necessary pillar if his claim to leadership is to succeed, reports the Guardian.

More from Venezuela

• The Maduro government is essentially a crime syndicate. In order to defeat it, the international community must move beyond diplomacy and sanctions, instead employing tactics used by police against criminal organizations writes Raúl Gallegos in Americas Quarterly.

• OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro called on Guaidó to provide solutions for about 1,000 security force members who defected from Maduro's government by crossing into Colombia. (Efecto Cocuyo)

• Even in the midst of the political stalemate, lawyers, academics and government officials are focusing on options to restructure the country's more than $175 billion in foreign debt, reports the Wall Street Journal.

• Water shortages -- linked to Venezuela's ongoing power crisis and a drought -- have been acute for weeks in Caracas, reports Bloomberg.

• China denied presence of troops in Venezuela, reports EFE.

• Female inmates in Venezuelan prisons have started taking on criminal leadership roles in order to survive, reports InSight Crime.

News Briefs

Nicaragua

• Nicaragua's ongoing political conflict is intimately linked to Venezuela, though the latter's crisis has largely eclipsed the former's in international coverage, writes Aryeh Neier in Project Syndicate. "If the Maduro government falls, international attention will likely shift to Nicaragua, and the pressure on Ortega and Murillo to step down will probably intensify. Just as the previous strength of Venezuela’s chávistas buttressed Ortega’s position, their current weakness may well be his undoing."

• Dialogue between Ortega's government and the Alianza Cívica will not advance without more pressure from the international community, writes Carlos Chamorro in Confidencial. Early elections are the only chance for an orderly exit to the crisis he argues, but the negotiations must also set the basis for a stable future government, he warns.

Regional Relations

• Though Canada is seen by many as a soothing advocate of multilateralism, it "has in fact emerged as a chief protagonist for regime change in Venezuela, a position that follows a longer standing pattern of Ottawa’s interventions in the Americas," argues Donald Kingsbury in Nacla.

Migration

• The U.S. announced significant cuts in its foreign aid to Central America last week -- a slew of programs focusing on security, governance and development, the very factors pushing migration from the Northern Triangle countries. A New York Times report looks at specific programs in each country. (See Monday's post and Tuesday's.)

• The U.S. border crisis isn't due to uncontrolled migration, but rather changes in how the U.S. processes undocumented migrants, reports the New York Times.

Mexico

• Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is known for being outspoken, but has remained quiet in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump's lashing out at Mexico over migration -- part of a broader trend of caution when dealing with his temperamental northern counterpart, reports the Los Angeles Times. (See Monday's post and Tuesday's.)

• Mexico's government cut projected spending for 2019 in response to lower oil production and economic growth -- investors welcomed the move as a sign of commitment to sound finances, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Haiti

• The United Nation's is set to finally end its peacekeeping mission in Haiti -- the question is whether the 15,051 strong national force is ready to take control of the country's security, reports the Miami Herald.

Brazil

• Former Brazilian president Michel Temer was indicted yesterday on charges of corruption. Prosecutors said he took part in a bribery scheme related to the Angra 3 nuclear power plant complex, reports Reuters.

• The Brazilian military's kidnapping of at least 19 children during the country's last dictatorship is now coming to light. (EFE)

Peru

• An English environmental activist was found dead in Peru, where he has lived and worked for two decades. Local media reported Paul McAuley's body was burned, and found in a hostel he founded for indigenous students in the Amazon city of Iquitos. (BBC, Guardian)

• A Peruvian indigenous group refuses to negotiate freeing the road to Las Bambas copper mine until the group's lawyers are released from jail, reports Reuters.

Ecuador

• Ecuadorean President Lenín Moreno accused WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange of repeatedly violating the terms of his asylum in the country's London embassy. (Guardian)

Argentina

• Argentine President Mauricio Macri reiterated the country's claim to the British controlled Falklands Islands, known as the Malvinas in Argentina. (AFP)

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing

Aid cuts counterproductive, experts say (April 2, 2019)

U.S. President Donald Trump's move to cut $450 million allocated to aid in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras (see yesterday's post) would affect a broad chunk of programs in the Northern Triangle -- advocates say it will affect the countries' most vulnerable populations. So far the administration has not said whether certain types of assistance, such as military aid or support to combat drug trafficking, might be exempt from the move, reports the New York Times. Officials were scrambling yesterday to figure out what exactly the order entailed and how it would be implemented, reports Reuters.

Though Trump posits the cuts as retaliation for government inaction, most of the funds go to nongovernmental organizations, churches, charities and private contractors that carry out projects for the State Department and the United States Agency for International Development. Indeed, using the funds to hit back against governments makes little sense, argues Michael Gerson in a Washington Post column.

Aid is in fact an imperfect tool that is implemented poorly -- but ending assistance to Central America will nonetheless be counterproductive, write Anita Isaacs and Anne Preston in a New York Times op-ed. "American aid to Central America has a lot of problems: Its total amounts are paltry, and it is mostly distributed inefficiently in large blocks by foreign contractors. Nonetheless, that aid is about the only outside support available to Central American governments confronting relentless poverty and violence. And some of the aid does work ..."

In a similar vein, Nacla notes the many deleterious effects of aid over the years -- but also maintains that the current move to cut financing is worst.

Several articles focus on Trump's accusation that Central American countries and Mexico are not working to stop migration -- and find that there are myriad policies in place, most in cooperation with the U.S.

In El Salvador development policies have actually been considered a success: both migration and homicide rates plummeted over the past three years, reports the Washington Post. U.S. aid funding has been used to train police officers, fund after-school programs and improve local governance -- and officials from both countries say the work put a dent in migration.

Mexico works closely with the U.S. on migration -- a cooperation that has continued despite President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's promise to respect migrants' rights. Mexican authorities are planning a "containment belt" near the border with Guatemala, and have agreed to host asylum seekers while their cases are processed in the U.S., notes the Washington Post. That being said, some argue that AMLO's relatively welcoming stance towards migrants has contributed to the surge of Central Americans at the U.S. border. Coupled with the new U.S. policy that keeps asylum seekers in Mexico, that is itself creating a crisis on the Mexican side of the border, reports the New York Times. 

And the situation be further complicated if Trump follows through on threats to close the border altogether. (See yesterday's post.) Such a move would not only affect Mexico, but would be drastic for communities on the U.S. side of the border as well, reports the Guardian. A complete shutdown would stop legal crossings, and disrupt billions of dollars in trade. Among other things: US consumers would run out of avocados in three weeks, reports the Guardian separately. (Yesterday AMLO met privately with visiting members of the US House of Representatives, reports EFE.)

Trump's threat to close the border is not without precedent, and in fact greatly resembles former U.S. president Richard Nixon's 1969 Operation Intercept, according to the Washington Post.

New Briefs

Venezuela

• Russia has ramped up its presence in Venezuela, and support for Maduro in the midst of intense international pressure -- its part of a greater international relations chess game with the U.S. for global influence, reports the Washington Post. It could become Trump's own "red-line moment" with Russia, according to the New York Times. (See yesterday's briefs.)
• The increase Russian (and Chinese) influence comes as international diplomats express frustration with the stalemate in Venezuela's crisis, reported McClatchy last week.

• Venezuelan-American comic Joanna Hausmann hits back against the "Hands off Venezuela" movement. In a New York Times video op-ed, she argues that opponents focused on Trump's military threats in Venezuela are ignoring a dire humanitarian crisis.

Regional Relations

• A group of Latin American countries, led by Mexico, are mounting diplomatic opposition to a secretive legal standard promoted by the US, UK and their allies to justify military operations in the Middle East. They fear it could eventually be used to justify intervention in Latin America, reports the Guardian.

Guatemala

• Guatemala's electoral court accepted three challenges to Thelma Aldana's candidacy, at least temporarily putting the popular former attorney general out of the running, reports the Associated Press. Aldana, a prominent anti-corruption crusader, can challenge the decision. She said the accusations against her are politically motivated. The electoral court's decision was predictable but surprising considering Aldana's popularity, reports El País.

• In Guatemala three female candidates are the main contenders for this year's presidential election -- but the judiciary seems to be more relevant than the popular vote in the race, writes Virgilio Álvarez Aragón in Nueva Sociedad.

• Without Aldana in the race, null votes and absenteeism is expected to increase, which will impact the Movimiento Semilla candidates, reports Nómada.

Mexico

• A Mexican rock start committed suicide. He called it a "radical declaration of innocence" after he was accused anonymously of raping a woman when she was 13. The death comes in the midst of a surge in Mexico's Me Too movement. (AFP)

• A Proceso report links Mexico's airport supervisor, Juan Manuel Hernández Palafox, to organized crime groups and alleges he facilitated the passage of drug shipments through Mexico City’s International Airport, as well as airports in Cancún, Guadalajara and Tijuana. (InSight Crime)

• There are currently 498 human rights defenders and 292 journalists in the Mexican government’s protection program -- but most still fear for their safety, reports EFE.

Migration

• U.S. border authorities are holding a group of migrant families in an outdoor temporary detention center under an El Paso bridge, reports the Los Angeles Times.

Brazil

• Police snipers have been deployed in Rio de Janeiro to take out armed suspects -- despite criticisms from rights groups. (AFP)

• Brazil's Bolsonaro administration threatens to roll back human rights advances of recent years, but a new generation of activists and politicians are challenging inequalities and standing up for rights, writes Pedro Telles at Open Democracy.

El Salvador

• Former Salvadoran first lady Ana Ligia de Saca will plead guilty to corruption charges related to her role in the laundering of $25 million in public money, reports the Associated Press.

Argentina

• Former Argentine president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's potential candidacy in this year's elections is the great question confounding pollsters. Her participation would definitively change the playing field -- a strong economic downturn and poverty increases mean she would have a shot at winning -- though it's not clear whether she'll risk her influence by running, writes Brendan O'Boyle at Americas Quarterly.

• Amid rising poverty, soup kitchens in Argentina say they are overwhelmed and called on the government to keep promises to supply milk, reports EFE.

Cuba

• Google and Cuban officials are exploring a direct connection that would allow internet users to navigate faster at lower prices, reports the Miami Herald.

Colombia

• Colombia's government has failed to comply with a coca crop substitution program that formed the cornerstone of the FARC peace deal agreement. It's a major setback for the country's drug fighting policies and leaves almost 100,000 families in limbo, reports InSight Crime.

• The Guardian profiles the Siona indigenous tribe's fight against oil developments on their lands in Colombia.

Uruguay

• Uruguay fired its defense minister, deputy and the army chief for allegedly covering up human rights abuses committed during military rule, reports the BBC.

Environment

• Sehuencas water frogs get it on. (New York Times)

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Latin America Daily Briefing

U.S. to suspend Northern Triangle aid (April 1, 2019)

The U.S. Trump administration announced to Congress that it intends to reprogram $450 million in aid to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, late Friday. (Or, three Mexican countries if you happen to watch Fox News.) The U.S. sends between $500 million and $750 million to those countries to support programs that combat drug and human trafficking, gang violence and promote good governance, the rule of law and anticorruption, according to the State Department. (Wall Street Journal) Though Trump has made threats regarding Northern Triangle aid, this time it has been accompanied by State Department actions, notes Politico.

The move surprised officials -- the Washington Post reports there was "chaos" in the State Department and U.S. embassies as officials tried to figure out whether they had to cancel existing contracts or simply not renew them.

If the move goes through, it would upend U.S. policy in the region -- including agreements like one on border security cooperation between those countries and the U.S. announced just last week. (Politico reported last week that already a significant portion last year's Congressional allocation for Central America has been in limbo -- see last Thursday's post and Friday's briefs.)

U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to cut aid to Central America's "Northern Triangle" as retaliation against the flow of undocumented migrants towards the U.S. runs counter to current theories that policies must address the root causes pushing immigrants. The Trump administration has questioned the efficacy of such programs, noting a historic rise of immigration from Central America. But experts say that an increase in U.S. aid, aimed at reducing such causes, effectively began only in 2017 -- a short period of time for results. And warn that the change could boomerang and eventually push more people to migrate. (New York Times, Washington Post, BBC, Deutsche Welle)

"You are shooting yourself in the foot. It’s an irresponsible policy that undermines efforts to help address the drivers of migration," Adriana Beltrán, of the Washington Office on Latin America, told the Wall Street Journal. "Instead of helping stabilize the situation, it makes it worse by gutting programs that had a positive impact."

Opposition U.S. lawmakers slammed the decision as "counterproductive." Senator Patrick Leahy, vice chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said it was "foreign policy by tweet" and demonstrated Trump’s ignorance of the funds' purpose, reports Politico. 

It also contradicts the development focus urged by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, reports the New York Times. Trump has continued to threaten to close the border with Mexico, or chunks of it, which would have a significant economic impact.

And the Associated Press reports that the Trump administration plans to more than quadruple the number of asylum seekers sent back over the border to wait out their immigration cases.

And no, it's not clear that the U.S. administration really knows who it's targeting. Snopes reports that acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said on CNN that the cutoff of aid was justified because "Honduras could do more. Nicaragua could do more. El Salvador could do more." (Not April Fools.)

(Aside: The Trump era has turned news into a soap opera, journalist Alma Guillermoprieto said in an interview with Folha de S. Paulo.)

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Nicaragua cracks down on protests -- a day after promising freedoms

Four people were hurt and ten detained in a Managua protest demanding freedom for political prisoners in Nicaragua on Saturday. The clash occurred before the march even started -- a group of Sandinista sympathizers, shielded by national police, threw rocks at protesters gathering inside a mall. One started shooting at protesters, reports Confidencial. Police stood by, arguing that protesters were responding with violence. Press workers denounced aggressions from the police. (See also AFP.)

The repression occurred the day after the government agreed to restore protest and press freedom rights, part of an ongoing negotiation with opposition civil society organizations regarding the country's political crisis. (Confidencial) The Alianza Cívica denounced that the government had violated the agreement, and called for international guarantors for the negotiating process to continue. (Confidencial and Associated Press)

The government responded that the demonstrators were violent -- and had attempted to lynch the gunman -- and asked the Alianza Cívica for responses.

Managua Archbishop, Cardinal Leopoldo Brenes, condemned Saturday’s violence on Twitter, and asked Nicaraguans to pray for peace. Bishop Silvio Baez, Managua’s auxiliary, said in his homily at Sunday Mass that the nation is still “caught up in a spiral of violence." (Confidencial, Vatican News)

Student leader and former political detainee Levis Artola Rugama spoke with el Confidencial about the abuses prisoners face.

News Briefs

Venezuela

• The Red Cross said it receive approval from Venezuela's government, and the political opposition, to start a major relief campaign. It is the first, albeit tacit, admission from the Maduro administration that there is a humanitarian crisis at all. The Red Cross plans to double its budget for Venezuela to an equivalent of at least $60 million this year. A sign of the depth of the crisis: the Red Cross said the scope of the effort would be similar to that carried out in Syria. It is a rare bipartisan agreement in Venezuela, where aid has become a political tool. (Wall Street Journal, New York Times)

• As the crisis worsens, Maduro opponents are digging in and hoping the misery topples the government, reports the New York Times.

• After a month of blackouts, President Nicolás Maduro announced a 30-day plan to ration electricity. (Al Jazeera)

• At least 12 people were arrested for protesting lack of basic services, including electricity, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

• Virginia López Glass writes about how shortages could provoke further violence and looting in a New York Times Español op-ed.

• Russia's footprint in Venezuela is growing, reports the Washington Post. Military cooperation is just the tip of an iceberg that also includes medical aid and oil industry supplies.

Haiti

• Hundreds of protesters demanded Haitian President Jovenel Moïse's resignation in Port-au-Prince. The demonstration occurred peacefully, the first major mobilization since a week of violent protests in February, reports EFE.

• At least 15 Haitian migrants died when their boat capsized in shark-infested waters off Turks and Caicos. (Miami Herald)

Brazil

• Thousands of Brazilians protested yesterday, on the 55th anniversary of a 1964 military coup that instituted a two decade dictatorial regime. (Associated Press)

• The protests formed the counterpart to President Jair Bolsonaro's instructions for the military to commemorate the coup, while at the same time arguing that it was a beneficial episode in Brazilian history. Activists, historians, politicians, and even the attorney general's office were scathingly critical of Bolsonaro's attempt to excuse a military regime that brutalized thousands of victims. (Guardian, New York Times, and see last Tuesday's briefs.) Folha de S. Paulo also notes that Bolsonaro's stance differs markedly from historical memory policies in Southern Cone neighbors.

• Bolsonaro's pledge to pass oft-delayed pension reforms is bumping up against partisan bickering in Congress, reports the Wall Street Journal.

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave Bolsonaro a warm welcome, as the Brazilian leader contemplates moving the country's Israel embassy to Jerusalem, reports the Associated Press. (See Friday's briefs.)

• China is open to trade and investment agreements with Brazil, reports Bloomberg.

Colombia

• Colombian indigenous groups called for broad protests after President Iván Duque suspended talks with Cauca groups. (Colombia Reports)

• Violence in some parts of Colombia has actually worsened since the 2016 peace deal with the FARC, according to the Red Cross. The power vacuum created when the guerrilla group demobilized has caused a struggles between armed actors. (Reuters)

• Prosecutors from Colombia's transitional justice system requested an investigation into ruling party lawmaker José Vicente Carreño in relation to an Arauca region paramilitary group. (Canal 1)

• Trump criticized Colombia -- a major U.S. ally -- over its "failure" to stop illicit drug flows. (Miami Herald)

Chile

• Chile's Catholic Church could face an onslaught of suits from sexual abuse victims, reports Reuters.

Argentina

• Argentina's presidential campaigns this year are poised to be the dirtiest in decades -- rife with false news circulating on social media, writes Hugo Alconada Mon in a New York Times Español op-ed.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing