Venezuelan military stands by Maduro (Jan. 25, 2019)

At least 28 people have been killed this week in anti-government protests, killed by security forces or armed, pro-government civilian groups, according to Efecto Cocuyo. U.N.human rights chief Michelle Bachelet condemned the killings and called for an investigation into potential undue use of force, and expressed concern that the Venezuelan crisis could rapidly spin out of control with "catastrophic" consequences. (BBC)

Efecto Cocuyo is live blogging the crisis.

Yesterday, the Venezuelan military, headed by defense minister Vladimir Padrino, stood by President Nicolás Maduro. (Guardian and Wall Street Journal) It's a severe plan to attempts to oust the leader whose legitimacy has been severely questioned by opponents in Venezuela and countries around the world. On Wednesday National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó declared himself interim president and was rapidly recognized by the U.S. and countries in the region. (See yesterday's post.) Persuading military officers to support Guaidó's bid for a transitional government is a key aspect to effectively removing Maduro.

In an interview yesterday Guaidó offered Maduro and his inner circle an amnesty if they step down and permit a peaceful transition, referencing previous such pardons in Venezuela and Chile as examples. (Guardian)

The dual power situation raises all sorts of practical consular and economic issues. And international recognition of Guaidó should not be confused with de facto power, warns WOLA Assistant Director for Venezuela Geoff Ramsey. 

Opposition unity behind Guaidó is a positive sign -- and a radical departure from characteristic fragmentation, writes Ramsey at Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights. Outreach to dissident factions of Chavismo, which Guaidó has engaged in, is another critical step.

Mexico has offered to mediate in Venezuela, but only at the request of both sides and without violating citizens' right to self determination, said President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Mexico has not recognized Guaidó and has not subscribed to Lima Group statements calling Maduro illegitimate, reports Efecto Cocuyo. (See yesterday's post.) 

U.S. President Donald Trump's challenge to Maduro is a departure from his anti-interventionist stance, and tendency to befriend autocrats around the world. And his sudden support for what amounts to regime change carries significant diplomatic risks as Maduro digs his heels in, reports the New York Times. The Wall Street Journal reports that Guaidó's decision to declare himself president came after the U.S. explicitly promised to back him up.

Though U.S. support for Guaidó has fed a narrative of an imperialist coup among Maduro supporters, the large number of countries in the region and around the world that rapidly followed suit softens parallels with past U.S. supported military dictatorships in Latin America, according to the New York Times.

And despite serious saber rattling this week, there appears to be no immediate plan for U.S. military intervention, reports the Guardian. Non-essential U.S. embassy personnel and families left Caracas. Senior staff remains and are bracing for Maduro's response, reports the Washington Post. (See yesterday's post.) Maduro ordered the recall of all Venezuelan diplomatic staff from in Washington.

The European Union is debating a unified response to the current crisis, but seems likely to demand Maduro hold elections, without yet recognizing Guaidó's claim to authority, reports EFE and EFE again.

Russia has been particularly vocal in denouncing U.S. interventionism against Maduro -- behind the posturing is concern over losing a significant financial investment in Venezuela, according to the Washington Post.

The Venezuela crisis could have significant impact on the international oil market, reports the Guardian. Venezuelan oil exports are critical for U.S. production, but the cash is vital for Venezuela, leaving Maduro without leverage, reports the Washington Post separately.

More from Venezuela

• The crisis in a nutshell, New York Times, Washington Post and New York Times again.

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Remain in Mexico

U.S. authorities will start sending asylum seekers crossing the country's southern border back to Mexico while their cases are processed. The drastic change in migration policy will be implemented starting today at the San Ysidro crossing, but will eventually be scaled up the entire Mexico-U.S. border, reports the Washington Post. The Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), informally dubbed "Remain in Mexico," aims to curb increasing numbers of Central American migrants, often traveling in family groups, who apply for asylum due to violence at home, reports Reuters. Critics say the policy, first announced in December, violates international asylum laws and could be challenged in court. (See Dec. 21's post.)

Its not clear how Mexico will deal with thousands of migrants, whose asylum claims could take years to process in the U.S. Mexican authorities were informed yesterday of the implementation.Many areas of the Mexican border with the U.S. are also violent and dangerous for migrants. In December two Honduran teens were murdered in Tijuana while moving between migrant shelters, for example. (See Dec. 19's post.) “Make no mistake — Mexico is not a safe country for all people seeking protection,” said Amnesty International Executive Director Margaret Huang in December.

Advocates are also concerned that asylum seekers will not be able to access lawyers to represent them in U.S. courts.

More on Migration

• In addition to all the other issues with Trump's proposed border wall, the negative environmental impact would be significant, reports the New York Times.

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Gay Brazilian lawmaker goes into exile after death threats

Brazilian lawmaker Jean Wyllys said he is giving up his seat in congress and will stay outside the country in response to death threats. Wyllys is openly gay and has been a fierce LGBTQ advocate. He has been the target of threats for years, but said they intensified after the murder of his ally, Rio de Janeiro councillor Marielle Franco, last year. (New York Times)

In an interview with Folha de S. Paulo, Wyllys mentioned recent reports linking President Jair Bolsonaro's son to a death squad suspected in Franco's killing. (See Wednesday's briefs, and see below) "I have to stay alive. I don’t want to be a martyr," said Wyllys.

From Davos, Bolsonaro tweeted “Great day!” and a thumbs-up emoticon. Many supporters responded with homophobic comments. 

Brazil's LGBT community has increasingly been targeted by homophobic attacks, especially during last year's campaign -- Wyllys cited examples in his interview. In 2017, at least 445 LGBT Brazilians died as victims of homophobia – a 30% increase from 2016. (Guardian)

More from Brazil

• Flavio Bolsonaro is implicated in a corruption investigation that threatens to tarnish the new Bolsonaro administration -- but there are other indications that its politics as usual in Brasilia, reports the New York Times.

News Briefs

Colombia

• The U.N. Security Council expressed concern over the "about the persistent pattern of assassinations of community and social leaders," in Colombia. Seven leaders have been killed so far this year.

Guatemala

• Guatemala's congress is considering a blanket amnesty for military officials accused of international crimes related to the internal armed conflict, in which an estimated 200,000 lives were lost, report Jo-Marie Burt and Paulo Estrada in the International Justice Monitor.

El Salvador

• Former San Salvador mayor Nayib Bukele could win El Salvador's presidency outright on Feb. 4's elections, according to three out of four polls. But there are signs that conservative candidate Carlos Calleja, who heads an alliance that includes the traditional ARENA party, is gaining support, reports AS/COA.

• A sign of changing times? Roberto Valencia analyzes Calleja's security platform, which emphasizes human rights and -- on paper! -- diverges significantly from Arena's traditional "mano dura" stance.

Orange economy

• Latin America has huge potential to grow its creative, or orange, economy -- but piracy, often with links to transnational crime, threatens to stifle artists and inventors according to the latest issue of Americas Quarterly. Piracy costs Latin America’s software industry 60 percent of its potential revenues and as much as a third of the region’s medicines are pirated.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing

U.S. recognizes Guaidó as Venezuela's interim president (Jan. 24, 2019)

Tens of thousands of Venezuelans around the country protested against President Nicolás Maduro yesterday. Clashes after two nights of violent demonstrations in Caracas left at least 16 dead and dozens of wounded, according to an Inter-American Commission on Human Rights estimate yesterday evening.

National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó declared himself interim president, yesterday, taking an oath of office before masses of demonstrators in Caracas. He is acting on a constitutional clause that says a presidential vacancy is to be filled by the legislature's head until new elections are called -- the opposition and many international actors say Maduro's second term, which started earlier this month, is illegitimate. (See Jan. 11's post and Jan. 16's briefs.) He was quickly recognized as Venezuela's legitimate leader by the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, Costa Rica, and Argentina, as well as the OAS.

Maduro promised to stay in office. Guaidó does not control state security forces, raising the question of how Maduro's administration will proceed said experts. Some expect attempts to arrest Guaidó and other opposition leaders, and efforts to intimidate protesters. (Guardian)

A lot hinges on how the military reacts. Yesterday Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino emphasized loyalty to Maduro, tweeting that "the soldiers of the Fatherland do not accept a president imposed from the shadows of dark interests or illegally self-proclaimed." But cracks are starting to appear among the military rank and file, reports the Associated Press. Earlier this week an attempted military uprising in Caracas spurred protests. (See Tuesday's post.) InSight Crime reports that military participation in illegal economies is spurring soldiers to reject the government.

Events in Venezuela are moving fast this week. (See yesterday's post.) Though experts are divided over whether Maduro's government will crumble quickly or cling to power with Chinese and Russian help, notes the Washington Post

Guaidó's move comes after weeks of contact with the U.S. administration, reports the Wall Street Journal. U.S. recognition could potentially enable Guaidó to access Venezuelan assets frozen by the U.S. government -- and eventually oil assets, such as Pdvsa's U.S.-based refiner, Citgo. The economic impact could be significant, report the Washington Post and the New York Times.

The diplomatic fall out from Guaidó's declaration and international recognition of his legitimacy is complicated but not unprecedented. Miguel Ángel Santos and José Ignacio Hernández suss out some of the details in a New York Times Español op-ed.

But the U.S. move is geopolitically fraught -- it could force escalating measures and, perversely, strengthen Maduro in a region suspicious of U.S. intervention. For some the U.S.'s quick recognition harkened back to dark episodes from Latin American history, reports the Associated Press. Experts, including David Smilde, warn of the potential negative effect of U.S. military action in Venezuela.

The U.S. has floated a potential military response in Venezuela. Yesterday U.S. President Donald Trump said: "we’re not considering anything but all options on the table. All options, always, all options are on the table." And Vice President Mike Pence later clarified that while Trump dislikes entangling the U.S. military internationally, he considers intervention in Latin America more warranted. "The United States has a special responsibility to support and nurture democracy and freedom in this hemisphere and that’s a longstanding tradition."

Maduro responded to the U.S. by cutting off relations with the U.S. and ordering all U.S. diplomats to leave the country within 72 hours. Guaidó in urged foreign embassies to keep diplomats in Venezuela, and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.S. would recognize Guaidó's directive. (Guardian)

Maduro and his international allies portray the opposition move as U.S. infringement on national sovereignty. "They intend to govern Venezuela from Washington," Maduro said in a speech yesterday. "Do you want a puppet government controlled by Washington?"

Russia and China said today that they back Maduro's government. Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov warned against external intervention, and said U.S. military action would be "catastrophic." Turkey and Cuba and Bolivia have also offered their support for Maduro. (Guardian)

Mexico maintained its principle of non intervention and, joined by Santa Lucia and Guyana, did not adhere to the Lima Group's declaration of support for a democratic transition aimed at holding new elections as quickly as possible.

Mexico and Uruguay urged all parties -- Venezuelan and international -- to try to reduce tensions and avoid an escalation of violence, reports the Associated Press.

Unrest turned into violent clashes in Caracas and around the country. National Guardsmen threw tear gas at hundreds of youths congregated in the Altamira neighborhood, while demonstrators nearby attacked a group of guardsmen, reports the Associated Press. Three Caracas deaths yesterday were related to disproportionate use of force and tear gas, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

Four demonstrators were killed by gunfire in the western city of Barinas as security forces were dispersing a crowd. Three others were killed amid unrest in the border city of San Cristobal.

Three Venezuelan lawyers are asking the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to grant precautionary measures to protect opposition leader Juan Guaido, his wife and his daughter, report the Associated Press and EFE.

Guaidó swore on battered copy of the Venezuelan Constitution sporting the image of national liberation hero Simón Bolivar, a sign that the freedom fighter lionized by Chavistas remains a key symbol, reports the Guardian.

More from Venezuela

• New York Times' backgrounder on the protracted Venezuelan crisis.

• Americas Quarterly interviews exiled former mayor David Smolansky, who formed part of Voluntad Popular with Juan Guaidó.

News Briefs

Migrants

• Mexican authorities said more than 10,000 Central American migrants requested humanitarian visas at the country's southern border, which will permit them to transit through Mexico, but also work there. The number of migrants surpasses last year's headline grabbing caravans, but the Washington Post notes that this group is less organized and has a high potential for dispersal within Mexico. The new visa policy is part of the López Obrador administration's promise for a more humanitarian approach to migration. Experts say its a drastic change that could push migration to Mexico, though most migrants still aim for the U.S.

• Already the scene at the Mexican border with Guatemala is vastly different than under the previous administration: the fence is open, there are no police officers deployed, and immigration officers hand out water to people waiting turns to apply for visas which now take just five days to process, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Mexico

• Mexican rights organizations propose creating a Truth Commission and an international anti-impunity commission, among other measures aimed at truth, justice, and reparation for human rights victims. (Animal Político)

• The latest from El Chapo's trial: a former top Sinaloa Cartel lieutenant said Joaquín Guzmán's wife played a key role in the kingpin's 2015 jailbreak. (Guardian)

Brazil

• CNN is launching a Portuguese language channel in Brazil -- but The Intercept looks at the track records of those behind the project, calling into question their credibility.

• A Christian missionary has endangered a Brazilian uncontacted indigenous group by entering the area in which the Hi-Merimã tribe lives. Incursions into protected areas expose isolated tribes to potentially deathly diseases. Experts warn of increased danger of such missions since President Jair Bolsonaro appointed an evangelical preacher to the cabinet's indigenous affairs post. (Guardian)

Guatemala

• Not everything should be recycled. Used buses phased out of U.S. cities often find a second life in Guatemala, where emissions standards are lower, reports the Guardian.

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing

Protests strong in Venezuela (Jan. 23, 2019)

Anti government protests called by Venezuela's political opposition started strong around the country this morning, reports Efecto Cocuyo. The Guardian reports tens of thousands, despite rain in Caracas. One person has already been detained. There were already protests sprouting around the country yesterday, with repressive responses from security forces, reports Efecto Cocuyo. (Seeyesterday's post.)

Today's call to protest is a major test for the opposition, which has been largely irrelevant since it boycotted last year's presidential election in May, writes David Smilde in the Venezuela Weekly. If turnout is big today, it will be the first mass mobilization since 2017, when a crackdown against demonstrators killed 100 people, reports the New York Times.

The opposition has been reinvigorated by 35-year-old Juan Guaidó who swore in as National Assembly president earlier this month. Lawmakers have declared President Nicolás Maduro's government illegitimate, and Guaidó wants to head a transitional government until new elections can be held -- an option increasingly supported internationally.

Already observers note the momentum against the government building with protests earlier this week, notes the Guardian. (See yesterday's post.)

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence declared the country's unwavering support for protesters today -- the strongest backing yet from the Trump administration, reports the New York Times. But Smilde warned against the high-stakes diplomatic move, telling Talk Media News that the opposition would be better served by framing the conflict as between the government and Venezuelan citizens, not the U.S.

Indeed, Maduro responded yesterday that Pence was giving orders to carry out a coup, and ordered "a total revision of relations" with Washington. (AFP)

Protests in several Caracas working class neighborhoods on Monday -- in response to the quashing of an apparent military uprising -- shouldn't be interpreted as overly supportive of the opposition, warns Smilde in the Venezuela Weekly. These protests are more aimed at concrete issues affecting citizens, such as inflation or lack of basic services. Efecto Cocuyo's Luz Mely Reyes reports on the issue.

News Briefs

Nicaragua

• Former Nicaraguan Supreme Court judge Rafael Solis advocates the annulment of ongoing trials against more than 500 political prisoners in Nicaragua and called for the creation of a “Truth Commission in an interview with Esta Semana. (Confidencial)

Guatemala

• Protests last week against President Jimmy Morales's onslaught against Guatemala's U.N. international anti-graft commission, the CICIG, featured indigenous communities who are particularly affected by corrupt and weak institutions in the country. Last year 26 members of indigenous campesino organizations were killed, raising the specter of a human rights crisis, reports NPR.

Colombia

• ELN guerrilla leaders, in Cuba for peace negotiations with the Colombian government, deny any role in a car bomb that killed 21 people last week, reports Reuters. The ELN earlier claimed responsibility for the attack, and the Colombian government has asked Cuba to extradite the 10-person ELN delegation in Havana. (See yesterday's briefs.)

Migrants

• Central American migrants are "victims of inequality and exclusion from political systems that, formally democratic, remain dominated by corruption and organized crime activity," writes Luis Guillermo Solís Rivera in a New York Times Español op-ed focused on how to strengthen democratic institutions in the region.

• Mexico's López Obrador administration is easing passage for Central American migrants headed for the U.S. About 5,600 Central Americans at the Guatemalan border with Mexico are awaiting Mexican humanitarian visas which will allow them to travel without fear of deportation, reports the Wall Street Journal. 

Mexico

• Mexico's murder rate hit a new record last year: 28,816 homicide cases reported, a 15 percent increase over the previous year. (Guardian)

• AMLO and his cabinet skipped the Davos World Economic Forum to focus on graft at home. (Bloomberg)

Brazil

• But, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro went to Davos and pitched his country as a good place for investors -- he also reiterated a commitment to rid Brazil of left-wing ideology and said "our motto is 'God above all things,'" reports the New York Times. The speech was underwhelming, according to the Washington Post, though the Wall Street Journal was less critical. His speech stressed the need to balance environmental concerns with economic, with the balance mostly tilting towards development, alarming climate activists, reports theGuardian. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• But the Davos appearance was overshadowed by a scandal linking Bolsonaro's son Flavio to death squad called the Escritório do Crime, reports the Guardian.

• Members of the Escritório do Crime are suspected in the murder of Rio de Janeiro councillor Marielle Franco last year -- and reports this week reveal that Flavio Bolsonaro employed both the mother and wife of the gang’s alleged leader, a former special forces agent called Adriano Magalhães da Nóbrega. (Guardian)

• Two police officers suspected of involvement in Franco's assassination were arrested yesterday, EFE. One had received an honor from Flavio Bolsonaro in 2004, when the president's son was a state legislator.

• Speaking of environmental concerns, the Brazilian government plans to privatize and complete a dictatorship era road through the Amazon, a plan environmentalists say could increase deforestation. (Reuters)

• Bolsonaro's supporters are thrilled by his moves to loosen gun regulations -- and so are manufacturers, reports the Associated Press. (See last Wednesday's briefs.)

• Critics say the move is only likely to increase violence. Interestingly, even gang leaders say that will be the likely effect, reports VICE.

Bolivia

• Bolivian President Evo Morales celebrated 13 years in power yesterday, but intends to continue governing through 2025, reports EFE.

Environment

• Costa Rican sloths' eating habits in the New York Times -- but check it out mostly for the pictures!

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing

Protests strong in Venezuela (Jan. 23, 2019)

Anti government protests called by Venezuela's political opposition started strong around the country this morning, reports Efecto Cocuyo. The Guardian reports tens of thousands, despite rain in Caracas. One person has already been detained. There were already protests sprouting around the country yesterday, with repressive responses from security forces, reports Efecto Cocuyo. (Seeyesterday's post.)

Today's call to protest is a major test for the opposition, which has been largely irrelevant since it boycotted last year's presidential election in May, writes David Smilde in the Venezuela Weekly. If turnout is big today, it will be the first mass mobilization since 2017, when a crackdown against demonstrators killed 100 people, reports the New York Times.

The opposition has been reinvigorated by 35-year-old Juan Guaidó who swore in as National Assembly president earlier this month. Lawmakers have declared President Nicolás Maduro's government illegitimate, and Guaidó wants to head a transitional government until new elections can be held -- an option increasingly supported internationally.

Already observers note the momentum against the government building with protests earlier this week, notes the Guardian. (See yesterday's post.)

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence declared the country's unwavering support for protesters today -- the strongest backing yet from the Trump administration, reports the New York Times. But Smilde warned against the high-stakes diplomatic move, telling Talk Media News that the opposition would be better served by framing the conflict as between the government and Venezuelan citizens, not the U.S.

Indeed, Maduro responded yesterday that Pence was giving orders to carry out a coup, and ordered "a total revision of relations" with Washington. (AFP)

Protests in several Caracas working class neighborhoods on Monday -- in response to the quashing of an apparent military uprising -- shouldn't be interpreted as overly supportive of the opposition, warns Smilde in the Venezuela Weekly. These protests are more aimed at concrete issues affecting citizens, such as inflation or lack of basic services. Efecto Cocuyo's Luz Mely Reyes reports on the issue.

News Briefs

Nicaragua

• Former Nicaraguan Supreme Court judge Rafael Solis advocates the annulment of ongoing trials against more than 500 political prisoners in Nicaragua and called for the creation of a “Truth Commission in an interview with Esta Semana. (Confidencial)

Guatemala

• Protests last week against President Jimmy Morales's onslaught against Guatemala's U.N. international anti-graft commission, the CICIG, featured indigenous communities who are particularly affected by corrupt and weak institutions in the country. Last year 26 members of indigenous campesino organizations were killed, raising the specter of a human rights crisis, reports NPR.

Colombia

• ELN guerrilla leaders, in Cuba for peace negotiations with the Colombian government, deny any role in a car bomb that killed 21 people last week, reports Reuters. The ELN earlier claimed responsibility for the attack, and the Colombian government has asked Cuba to extradite the 10-person ELN delegation in Havana. (See yesterday's briefs.)

Migrants

• Central American migrants are "victims of inequality and exclusion from political systems that, formally democratic, remain dominated by corruption and organized crime activity," writes Luis Guillermo Solís Rivera in a New York Times Español op-ed focused on how to strengthen democratic institutions in the region.

• Mexico's López Obrador administration is easing passage for Central American migrants headed for the U.S. About 5,600 Central Americans at the Guatemalan border with Mexico are awaiting Mexican humanitarian visas which will allow them to travel without fear of deportation, reports the Wall Street Journal. 

Mexico

• Mexico's murder rate hit a new record last year: 28,816 homicide cases reported, a 15 percent increase over the previous year. (Guardian)

• AMLO and his cabinet skipped the Davos World Economic Forum to focus on graft at home. (Bloomberg)

Brazil

• But, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro went to Davos and pitched his country as a good place for investors -- he also reiterated a commitment to rid Brazil of left-wing ideology and said "our motto is 'God above all things,'" reports the New York Times. The speech was underwhelming, according to the Washington Post, though the Wall Street Journal was less critical. His speech stressed the need to balance environmental concerns with economic, with the balance mostly tilting towards development, alarming climate activists, reports theGuardian. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• But the Davos appearance was overshadowed by a scandal linking Bolsonaro's son Flavio to death squad called the Escritório do Crime, reports the Guardian.

• Members of the Escritório do Crime are suspected in the murder of Rio de Janeiro councillor Marielle Franco last year -- and reports this week reveal that Flavio Bolsonaro employed both the mother and wife of the gang’s alleged leader, a former special forces agent called Adriano Magalhães da Nóbrega. (Guardian)

• Two police officers suspected of involvement in Franco's assassination were arrested yesterday, EFE. One had received an honor from Flavio Bolsonaro in 2004, when the president's son was a state legislator.

• Speaking of environmental concerns, the Brazilian government plans to privatize and complete a dictatorship era road through the Amazon, a plan environmentalists say could increase deforestation. (Reuters)

• Bolsonaro's supporters are thrilled by his moves to loosen gun regulations -- and so are manufacturers, reports the Associated Press. (See last Wednesday's briefs.)

• Critics say the move is only likely to increase violence. Interestingly, even gang leaders say that will be the likely effect, reports VICE.

Bolivia

• Bolivian President Evo Morales celebrated 13 years in power yesterday, but intends to continue governing through 2025, reports EFE.

Environment

• Costa Rican sloths' eating habits in the New York Times -- but check it out mostly for the pictures!

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing

Uprising quashed in Venezuela, tensions rise (Jan. 22, 2019)

Venezuelan authorities arrested 27 members of the National Guard, accused of participating in a pre-dawn uprising yesterday in the Caracas neighborhood of Cotiza. The military said they kidnapped two officers and stole a cache of weapons, which have been recovered. The uprising, accompanied by videos of heavily armed guardsmen saying they do not recognize the government of President Nicolás Maduro and urging citizens to take to the streets. (Associated Press and Associated Press)

Sounds of gunfire in Cotiza yesterday spurred citizens in the neighborhood to protest in support of the rebellion and against ongoing shortages of basic goods and services. Some banged pots and pans, while others created a flaming barricade. The protesters were contained by security troops who fired tear gas at them. (Efecto Cocuyo, Associated Press, Wall Street Journal, Guardian, and New York Times) Efecto Cocuyo reports that pot banging, street protests, and repression continued throughout yesterday night in poor neighborhoods around Caracas. (More from Efecto Cocuyo.)

The Venezuelan opposition, which doesn't recognize the legitimacy of Maduro's second term which began earlier this month, hopes to turn the military against the government. Last week opposition lawmakers offered amnesty to soldiers who support a transitional government. And yesterday National Assembly President Juan Guaidó called the soldiers’ actions "a show of the generalized feeling" in the armed forces and promised troops they would have "necessary guarantees" if they act in defense of the Constitution. The opposition led by Guaidó has called on citizens to protest massively tomorrow -- a date that commemorates the end of a military dictatorship in 1958.

But some experts questioned the uprising narrative yesterday, arguing the clash might have been staged by the government to justify extreme security measures ahead of tomorrow's protests. They point to the rather hopeless nature of the small uprising, and authorities' swift response as dubious elements, reports the New York Times.

The Miami Herald reported yesterday that dissatisfaction with the government is widespread among the armed forces, but most officers are disinclined to support an insurrection. Officers in exile said the armed forces would be unlikely to repress demonstrations, however. (See yesterday's briefs.)

Yesterday Guaidó appealed to the military along these lines, saying he asked not for a coup, but that troops not fire on protesters and defend their right to be heard. A video released late last night by a Colombian news channel shows about two dozen unarmed men wearing combat fatigues and promising to support Guaidó. Guaidó's wife made a social media appeal to military families, asking them to not shoot at demonstrators.

Also yesterday, the Supreme Court, which is loyal to Maduro, issued a ruling that called the opposition-led National Assembly illegitimate, and warned that recent measures such as the amnesty law, are unconstitutional. Efecto Cocuyo notes that the move was not unexpected. (Legal analysis from Efecto Cocuyo.)

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Xenophobic attacks against Venezuelans in Ecuador

The killing of a pregnant Ecuadorean woman by her Venezuelan immigrant boyfriend over the weekend triggered outrage and xenophobic attacks Sunday. President Lenín Moreno said he would immediately tighten immigration controls for Venezuelans and also announced that the government might create a special permit for Venezuelans to enter the country. (Guardian) Vice President Otto Sonnenholzner said Venezuelans would be required to show criminal records to enter the country in the future. But obtaining even basic documents like passports is already nearly impossible in Venezuela, making the requirement difficult for most migrants to fulfill. (El Comercio, Associated Press, and Reuters)

Human rights groups criticized Moreno's decision to send special forces to the streets to conduct checks on Venezuelans' immigration status and demand more documentation. Human Rights Watch Americas Director José Miguel Vivanco said the move would only increase xenophobia. "The government cannot spread collective hysteria," he tweeted. Amnesty International called on the government to respect the rights of asylum seekers and respond to violence without xenophobia.

Videos on social media show mobs harassing Venezuelans in Ecuador, breaking into their homes, and burning their possessions. (El Comercio) Ecuador's government offered Venezuelan immigrants flights back home yesterday in the midst of the attacks. (El Universal)

The United Nations estimates at least 221,000 Venezuelans are now residing in Ecuador, and thousands more have travelled through on their way to other countries, especially Peru.

Venezuela's government accused Ecuador's of stoking xenophobia.

Police in the locality of Ibarra where the femicide took place have also been strongly criticized for not intervening in the episode -- in which the killer held the victim at knifepoint on a street for over an hour.

News Briefs

Mexico

• Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador insists victims of a pipeline explosion last Friday were pushed to gather gasoline gushing out of an illegal tap because of poverty and previous governments' abandonment. (See yesterday's post.) Yesterday he announced social development programs for 91 municipalities with the most incidents of fuel pipeline theft, reports Animal Político.

• According to the New York Times, his response demonstrates a central tension of the new government: a commitment to be tough on crime and corruption, and sympathy for the country's poor and marginalized. He has been applauded for quickly assuming leadership in the wake of the tragedy.

• Rafael Murua is the first Mexican journalist killed this year. The country had record homicide rates last year and has become one of the most dangerous countries in the world for the press. (AFP)

Nicaragua

• Nicaraguan journalist Carlos Fernando Chamorro said he has gone into exile in Costa Rica after receiving government threats, but will continue his reporting from San José. (Guardian, Reuters, and see yesterday's briefs.)

• Last week La Prensa, Nicaragua’s oldest and most-widely read newspaper, published a paper with a blank front page, in protest of government withholding of material needed for printing. (Reuters)

Guatemala

• Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales' actions against the CICIG will clear the way for corruption and impunity. "... his intentional sabotaging of the rule of law could never succeed without the seemingly unconditional support of the Trump administration and Republicans in the United States Congress," writes Francisco Goldman in a New York Times op-ed.

Brazil

• Six witnesses tied a former special operations police officer with criminal ties to the killing of Rio de Janeiro councillor Marielle Franco last year, reports The Intercept.

• Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will sell a "new Brazil" at the Davos World Economic Forum, reports AFP. But potential investors should be wary of the contradiction between Bolsonaro's market friendly economy minister, "Chicago Boy" Paul Guedes, and populist conservative commitments to his base, writes Brian Winter at Americas Quarterly.

• One of Bolsonaro's sons is under investigation for financial irregularities, a case that threatens to cast a cloud over the new president, elected on a strong anti-corruption platform, reports the Associated Press.

Colombia

• Colombia's ELN guerrillas asked the government to permit their 10-person negotiation delegation to return to Colombia from Cuba. They maintain a deadly attack on a police academy that killed 20 people last week was a legitimate response to government attacks, reports AFP. (See yesterday's briefs and last Friday's post.)

• Colombia's government repeated its request for Cuba's government to hand over the delegates, saying there are no agreements to protect terrorists. (EFE)

Chile

• Chilean President Sebastian Piñera announced tougher fines and jail time for environmental violations. (Reuters)

Cinema

• Americas Quarterly on Mexico's second "golden age."

Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing