Monday, January 21, 2019

Fuel theft related explosion kills 85 in Mexico (Jan. 21, 2019)

A Friday night explosion at a fuel pipeline punctured by gasoline thieves killed at least 85 people in Tlahuelilpan. (Animal Político) The site had been offline until Friday, part of the López Obrador administration's crackdown on oil theft that has led to a fuel crisis in Mexico. The Associated Press describes how hundreds of people came Friday evening to gather fuel gushing up to six meters high from an illegal tap in the pipeline, which eventually drenched onlookers and exploded into a giant fireball. (Videos here and here.) Soldiers had created a perimeter around the area, and attempted to dissuade residents from entering. But the detachment of 25 troops was insufficient to deter the approximately 800 townspeople who flocked to the tap. (Animal Político)

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made combatting fuel theft a central priority of the new government, and the explosion will only raise the stakes of his wager. (See last Wednesday's post, and Quartz.) The government temporarily shutdown fuel pipelines which feed a rampant black market run by organized crime, instead shipping gas by trucks, which has led to shortages around the country. Some people in Tlahuelipan said they were drawn to Friday's tap precisely because of those shortages, which have left many people unable to go to work, reports the New York Times. Many of those who came were not experienced huachicoleros -- oil thieves -- who would have known the deadly likelyhood of a fire in a leak of that magnitude, reports Animal Político. They were drawn by reports of gasoline being given away.

Missteps in the government reaction to news of the puncture, which it received on Friday afternoon, will increase scrutiny of the fuel theft crackdown, reports Reuters. Government authorities said they did not immediately close the gasoline pipe because the initial leak was considered minimal. The explosion occurred half an hour after the pipe was turned off by Pemex. Some experts say the state-owned oil company was anxious to avoid more gasoline shortages in Mexico City.

Nonetheless, on Saturday AMLO promised to double down. "Far from stopping the fight … against fuel theft, it’s going to become stronger, we’ll continue until we’ve eradicated these practices." (Guardian)

The government estimates that $3.14 billion in fuel was drained from the system last year and sold on the black market. Ruling Morena party lawmakers have proposed a reform that would increase penalties for oil theft (and corruption and use of social programs for electoral ends), reports Animal Político.

In 2018, there were more than 13,000 illegal pipeline taps in Mexico, many of them resembling the scene on Friday, reports the Washington Post.


More from Mexico
  • Turmoil at the Tijuana U.S.-Mexico border crossing -- such as a clash with migrants that led to a shutdown in November -- are impacting the tourist industry in that part of Mexico, heavily reliant on day trips from California. (New York Times)
  • Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán's New York trial continues to provide salacious details of the narco lifestyle. On the witness stand last week, his longtime lover told the court that his legendary 2014 escape from authorities through a tunnel accessed by a bathtub was carried out stark naked. (Guardian)
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Human Rights Watch's 2019 report

Pressuring authoritarian governments to raise the cost of human rights violations is the surest way to stop authoritarian abuses, even if the effects are not immediately apparent, writes Human Rights Watch Executive Director Kenneth Roth in the organization's yearly report. In Latin America he emphasizes the relevance of smaller and medium sized states in increasing pressure on Venezuela at the U.N. He also points to Brazil's new president, Jair Bolsonaro, as an example of how "the forces of autocracy have been on the rise."

Other highlights from the report, which is organized by country include Brazil's record homicide rate, increased violence in Colombia, and risks to the fight against corruption in Guatemala. The pressing issue of Venezuela's humanitarian crisis receives a lot of focus, as does the related migration crisis affecting the region.

News Briefs

Nicaragua
  • Nicaraguan journalist Carlos F. Chamorro announced his exile in the face of extreme threats from government forces. Five weeks ago police illegally raided the offices of Confidencial and Esta Semana, though both independent outlets have continued working since, he writes. (See post for Dec. 14, 2018.)
Colombia
  • Three days after a car bomb explosion that killed 21 people in a Bogotá police academy last Thursday, Colombia's ELN guerrillas claimed responsibility for the attack. In a blog post the group insisted its actions were in self-defense and called on the government to dialogue, reports Semana. (See Friday's post.) But the reaction from the government was the opposite -- President Iván Duque formally suspended a Havana peace negotiation process, and asked Cuba to arrest the 10 rebel negotiators living on the island, report the Associated Press and the Miami Herald. (See Semana for more.) La Silla Vacía says the guerrillas have shot themselves in the proverbial foot. 
  • Citizens around the country participated in massive marches in favor of peace yesterday -- many carried signs in solidarity with the police and the victims of the attack. Duque, members of his cabinet, and politicians from across the spectrum participated. (Caracol)
  • Duque has emphasized a message of unity in the wake of the attack, but is being pressured to respond with mano dura measures, reports La Silla Vacía.
Cuba
  • "The experience of exile has been a two way street" for Cubans, writes novelist Leonardo Padura in a New York Times Español op-ed. "We have all been touched by its drama in some part -- or many -- of our sensibilities and individual stories: those who left, from uprooting; those who stayed, from a sense of loss."
  • And Nicholas Kristof looks at how Cuba's healthcare system achieves excellent results.
Haiti
  • Mexico isn't the only place with gas shortages. In Haiti there has been a fuel crisis for about a month, related to $80 million in unpaid bills, reports the Miami Herald. (More from the Miami Herald.)
Venezuela
  • Venezuelan military officers tend to agree with the country's political opposition that President Nicolás Maduro's government is now illegitimate. They aren't willing to lead an insurrection, but are also disinclined to repress massive protests, officers in exile told the Miami Herald.
Regional Relations
  • Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro promised to do “everything for democracy to be re-established” Venezuela. And his son, described as a sort of "parallel" foreign minister called Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro a "cancer" that needs to be "excised," reports the Guardian.
El Salvador
  • El Salvador is gearing up for presidential elections on Feb. 3. Polls from last week have outsider Nayib Bukele firmly in the lead. (Ultima Hora) But an uptick in homicides, which had been on a downward trend has brought back concerns of gang influence on politics and the electoral process, reports InSight Crime.
  • El Faro reported allegations that the Arena party has had to pay gang leaders to campaign in certain areas.
Migration
  • Deportation from the U.S. hasn't deported would be migrants from El Salvador. A new group set out last week in a caravan formation, though some are now aiming for Mexico instead of the U.S. reports El Faro.
Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Friday, January 18, 2019

21 killed in Bogotá bombing (Jan. 18, 2019)

A car bomb in Colombia killed at least 21 people and wounded 68 more. The explosive, detonated outside a Bogotá police academy with students from around the region, raised the specter of past violence in Colombia. It has been more than a decade since a police or military installation in the capital has suffered a major bombing. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, which reminded Bogotá residents of bombings carried out by guerrillas and drug cartels in past decades. 

But authorities say the ELN, the country's largest remaining guerrilla force, was behind the bomb. The group has been gaining strength since the 2016 peace deal, particularly in the territory along the Venezuelan border. The attack was carried out by a 57-year-old man with ELN links driving a car carrying 80 kg of pentolite, a powerful explosive used in the past by Colombia's rebel guerrilla groups, said Attorney General Néstor Humberto Martínez. (Semana and Tiempo)

Authorities discarded earlier hypothesis linking the FARC or Venezuela to the attack, reports Semana.

President Ivan Duque described the attack as a "crazy terrorist act" and declared three days of national mourning. He favored a narrative of unity and institutionality. He avoided mano dura prescriptions promoted by some in his party, including his political mentor, former president Álvaro Uribe , notes La Silla Vacía.

The attack will likely put an end to negotiations between the government and the ELN, which have already been jeopardized by the guerrilla group's ongoing attacks, reports El Universal. (The Los Angeles Times discusses recent attacks and the group's evolution since 2016.)

(New York TimesEl PaísGuardianBBCMiami Herald

More from Colombia
  • Attacks against social activists remain a pressing security concern in Colombia -- already this year seven have been killed, and the government promised to improve protections. (Nuevo Siglo and El Universal)
  • Threats and violence against journalists in Colombia have also increased since the peace deal -- particularly since last year's presidential election, reports Al Jazeera.
News Briefs

Migrants
  • Colombian authorities dismantled a Bogotá temporary shelter for Venezuelan migrants, despite the ongoing flow of refugees from the neighboring country. Jan. 15 had always been set as the camp's closure date, and Colombian authorities are responding to backlash against Venezuelan migration, reports Reuters.
  • Colombia has been remarkably open to the incoming flow, partly because of a history of Venezuela accepting Colombian refugees, reports Foreign Policy.
Venezuela
  • Venezuelan authorities say 12 officials with the country’s intelligence agency (Sebin) will be tried for their role in the brief detention of National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó last weekend, reports the Associated Press.
  • Guaidó has been portrayed as the new hope of Venezuela's fractured opposition this week, but he's just the latest iteration of long standing divisions among those who hope to oust President Nicolás Maduro writes Fulton Armstrong. In an Aula Blog post he warns that the Voluntad Popular party's strategy leans heavily on eventual military support to oust the government, but it's not clear that the Armed Forces will go along. "... Unhappiness with Maduro does not translate into support for the opposition ... Despite deep corruption in the officer corps, moreover, most officers probably see themselves as nationalists and might chafe at the idea of the OAS or regional governments trying to be the kingmakers." (See Monday's postWednesday's briefs and yesterday's.)
  • Venezuela will receive the 2,000 Cuban doctors who left Brazil after the new government criticized a long-standing program aimed at providing health care to isolated and poor communities, reports Reuters. (See Nov. 15's post.)
Brazil
  • Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's first couple of weeks in office have been marked by missteps and communication gaffes. But the lack of a cohesive plan is raising questions over whether he'll be able to deliver on promises of sweeping change he made during last year's campaign, reports the Associated Press. (Last week Reuters also reported on internal contradictions in the new administration, see Jan. 10's post.)
  • Bolsonaro's tough stance against crime and in favor of police use of lethal force has sparked "preoccupation" for human rights in the country, Human Rights Watch Americas chief Jose Miguel Vivanco told AFP.
  • There are mounting concerns over indigenous inmates in Brazil's notoriously bad penal system -- Reuters reports they "can face unduly long sentences due to no linguistic and legal aid."
  • Gisele Bündchen used facts to rebut the Brazilian agricultural minister's allegations that the supermodel is a "bad Brazilian" because of her environmental activism. "An immeasurable heritage threatened by illegal deforestation and the squatting of public lands. These, yes, are the ‘bad Brazilians,'" she wrote in a letter published in Brazilian media. (Guardian, and see yesterday's briefs.)
Nicaragua
  • Nicaraguan foreign minister Denis Moncada canceled a trip to Mexico yesterday, in which officials were supposed to discuss Mexico's offer to mediate in Nicaragua's ongoing political crisis. (La Prensa and Confidencial)
Mexico
  • AMLO promised protect and respect the human rights of Central American migrants traveling through the country in caravans on their way to the U.S. (EFE)
Guatemala
  • A group of U.S. lawmakers called on President Donald Trump to apply the same standards to Guatemala as to Venezuela, pointing to Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales' efforts to oust the U.N. backed anti-graft commission and refusal to obey Constitutional Court decisions. (El Periódico)
  • Guatemala's electoral tribunal will announce general elections scheduled for later this year. This will suspend cancelation proceedings against six political parties for illicit financing, reports El Periódico.
Peru
  • Peru's lawmakers launched an investigation into a defunct Odebrecht-led consortium that reportedly did business over a decade ago with a company owned by President Martín Vizcarra. Vizcarra has made battling corruption a hallmark of his administration, and denies ever having done business with the scandal-plagued Brazilian construction firm. (Reuters)
  • The ten-year-old U.S.-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement was the first trade deal to include detailed protections for the environment and for labor. But Peru's illegal logging industry -- and the Peruvian government which seeks to enable it -- continues despite the provisions, writes Richard Conniff in a New York Times op-ed.
Paraguay
  • A Paraguayan lawmaker proposed allowing young men to carry out reforestation projects, among other civil service alternatives to military conscription. (EFE)
Futból
  • Argentina's football fans are the country's latest cultural export, like tango before, writes Martín Caparrós in a New York Times Español op-ed lamenting how fanaticism is ruining love of the sport.
Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...Latin America Daily Briefing

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Mexico's lower chamber approves National Guard bill (Jan. 17, 2019)

News Briefs


Mexico
  • Mexico's lower chamber of Congress approved the government's National Guard proposal, which would create a new 60,000-member security force aimed at combating organized crime and widespread violence. Critics say President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's proposal doubles down on failed militarized security strategies. (ReutersAnimal Político, and see post for Nov. 21, 2018.)
  • Allegations that Sinaloa Cartel leader Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán paid a $100 million bribe to former Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto caused little ruckus at home, where citizens were more concerned about an ongoing gas shortage, notes the New York Times. (See yesterday's post and briefs.)
  • El Chapo's New York trial -- along with the latest season of Netflix's Narcos, set in Mexico -- feeds into a narrative that the country's ills stem from organized crime. Rather, Mexico's narcos should be understood  as "the catalyzer that accelerates the functioning of a corrupt and impune system of a profoundly unequal country," writes José Luis Pardo Veiras in a New York Times Español op-ed.
El Salvador
  • El Salvador has presidential elections on Feb. 3 -- and the young charismatic former mayor of San Salvador, Nayib Bukele is in the lead. But Bukele's maverick persona seems to have backfired against him, and election results might be closer than polls indicate, argues Lucas Perelló in Global Americans.
Elections
  • Last year was an election super-year in Latin America, but this year has a fair amount of votes coming up. AS/COA previews upcoming elections in El Salvador, Panama, Guatemala, Argentina, Uruguay, and Bolivia.
Venezuela
  • Venezuelan National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó's brief detention last Sunday might be an indication of conflict within the country's Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (Sebin) -- known for rights violations and criminal activity, reports InSight Crime. (See Monday's post.)
  • This week the opposition-led National Assembly declared President Nicolás Maduro illegitimate, but Guaidó has stopped short of declaring himself the head of an interim government. Some governments in the region have gone ahead and done so though. The U.S., which is reportedly considering such a move, could prove pivotal in this latest phase of the Venezuelan crisis, argues Frida Ghitis in World Politics Review. (See yesterday's briefs.)
  • Andres Oppenheimer argues similarly, calling on regional governments to recognize Guaidó in order to oust Maduro. (Miami Herald)
  • Economist Manuel Sutherland compares Venezuela's political opposition's divisions to that of Cuba's during the "special period." (Nueva Sociedad)
  • But Venezuela is no Cuba, and President Nicolás Maduro is no Castro, warns Juan Gabriel Tokatlian arguing against using the same failed Cold War measures applied against the island, also in Nueva Sociedad.
Honduras
  • Honduras' Supreme Court confirmed a 2016 10-year defamation sentence for journalist David Romero Ellner. (See yesterday's briefs.) There have been at least 41 such cases in Honduran tribunals since 2013  -- 13 against journalists, denounced C-Libre and Ciprodeh yesterday. (Criterio)
  • Brazil's environmental minister suspended all partnerships and agreements with non-governmental organizations for 90 days. Organizations of civil society characterized the move as "a war on NGOs." (Guardian)
Regional Relations
  • Bolsonaro met with Argentine President Mauricio Macri yesterday in Brasilia, where the two smiled and promised to work together on trade issues and fighting crime, reports Bloomberg.
Argentina
  • Indeed, Macri's government is increasingly in-tune with the regional shift towards tough on crime politics. A December decree allowing security officials to shoot without warning suspects goes into effect in six months, reports La Nación.
  • The shift has been criticized by rights groups, and across the political spectrum. But Security Minister Patricia Bullrich, the face of the administration's manodurismo, is proving popular -- to the point where she she's a rumored potential running mate for Macri's reelection campaign this year, write Benjamin Gedan and Nicolás Saldías in Americas Quarterly.
  • Another potential presidential candidate, Alfredo Olmedo, has been a fringe anti-establishment right-winger for years. But has gained notoriety as an "Argentine Bolsonaro," reports Americas Quarterly. His ultra-conservative views pushed him to be the only vote against a December bill aimed at reducing gender violence.
  • Another femicide in Argentina -- this time a 17-year-old leaving a night club -- has drawn attention to the dangers women face heading home at night. The hashtag AmigaLlegué is making rounds, an allusion to the common practise among women of checking to see if their friends have arrived safely home before going to sleep. (La Nación)
Gender Ideology
  • It's ludicrous that this argument even needs to be made, but Andrés Gil Domínguez compares those who oppose sexual education for children, arguing they are being indoctrinated with "gender ideology," to those who would oppose teaching them that race has no impact on their juridical status. (Clarín)

Latin America Daily Briefing
Brazil
Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Mexico's ongoing fuel theft crackdown (Jan. 16, 2019)

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said the government was making progress in normalizing fuel supplies, in the midst of widespread shortages provoked by a crackdown on oil theft, reports the Associated Press. (See last Thursday's briefs.) 5,800 security officers have been deployed to protect the 11 most important pipelines, reports Animal Político.

Illegal taps of Pemex pipelines cost Mexico an estimated $3 billion in 2017. Fuel theft even reached to oil drilling platforms said AMLO yesterday. 

But the government's strategy of temporarily closing down major fuel pipelines -- and instead shipping gas to stations in trucks -- has left citizens facing long lines for fuel around the country. Queues at gas stations can extend for blocks, reports the Associated Press.  The measure has polarized the population, though more people support than oppose it, reports Reuters

But the situation is not as simple as AMLO is making it seem, reports InSight Crime. Oil thieves are just a part of the problem, which is related to criminal organizations controlled by Mexico's cartels and work with the complicity of engineers and workers at Pemex’s refineries.

The government has portrayed the policy as a crackdown on entrenched corruption as well though. Indeed, on Monday Mexico's attorney general said three top officials at state oil company Pemex will face trial for fuel theft. (AFP)

In a recent Washington Post opinion piece Francisco Toro and James Bosworth argue that the fuel shortage crisis is an example of how populist governments blunder.

No need to lose your sense of humor: NPR has some of the crisis' most amusing memes.

More from Mexico
  • A former Sinaloa Cartel operative alleged that drug kingpin Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán boasted of bribing former Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto $100 million. (Washington Post)
  • Guzmán's detention and later extradition to the U.S. led to fracturing within the Sinaloa Cartel, part of a wider phenomenon of fragmentation in Mexico's criminal landscape that has led to increased violence and promises to be one of the most significant security challenges faced by López Obrador. (InSight Crime)
  • Mexico is taking positive steps towards a more human drug policy, stepping away from a prohibitionist stance, and pointing the way to alternatives for the rest of the region, write Aram Barra and Gabriel Santos Elia in Nexo.
News Briefs

Migrants
  • Between 1,000 and 2,000 migrants departed from Honduras in a group dubbed the Jan. 15 Caravan. They hope to follow the footsteps of similar initiatives last year and travel en masse to the U.S. border. They face the ongoing enmity of U.S. President Donald Trump, who reiterated his calls for a border wall with Mexico this morning. But they also face attempts by Honduras' government and Mexico to crack down on illegal border crossings. Migrants are aware they have slim chances of obtaining asylum or otherwise entering the U.S., but cite impossible circumstances at home as reason enough to try. They have been organizing through social media for longer than a month, according to the Wall Street Journal. The migrants pushed pass 150 Honduran police posted to the Guatemalan border, though Honduran government said it stopped 60 minors without proper travel documents from crossing the Guatemalan border this morning. (Washington PostNew York TimesEl PaísEl País again, and AFP)
  • The Trump administration's insistence on a wall "ignores changing migrant demographics and leaves largely unaddressed an asylum system buckling under unprecedented strain," writes Dennis Stinchcomb at the Aula Blog.
  • Human smuggling operations between Venezuela and Colombia are using tourism agencies and taxi cooperatives as fronts for their criminal activities, reports InSight Crime.
Venezuela
  • Venezuela's opposition-led National Assembly formally declared President Nicolás Maduro illegitimate, calling him a "usurper." Though the immediate impact of the measure is not clear -- the body has been largely powerless since 2017 -- the goal is to oust the current administration and implement a transitional government until new elections can be held under fair conditions. (New York Times and Reuters)
  • Lawmakers seek to undermine military support for Maduro with a proposed amnesty law that would offer guarantees to civilians and members of the military who "defend the Constitution," reports Efecto Cocuyo. (See Monday's post.)
  • National Constituent Assembly head Diosdado Cabello requested the judiciary and the prosecutor general to investigate crimes in relation to the National Assembly's declaration. (Efecto Cocuyo)
  • The Trump administration is considering recognizing National Assembly head Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's de facto leader, according to the Miami HeraldReuters, and CNN. (See Monday's post.)
  • The U.S. is considering tougher sanctions against Venezuela's military and oil sector, reports the Wall Street Journal. Options include limiting Venezuelan oil sales to the U.S., which would severely affect the country's money supply.
  • Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro promised a "new monetary system" this week, that will be based on the national Petro cryptocurrency. Part of the announcement included hiking up the Petro's value for the second time in about a month. Annual inflation is nearly two million percent. (Efecto CocuyoAl Jazeera and Bitcoin)
  • "The scale of Venezuela’s current social, economic and political crisis is so severe it is difficult to comprehend," writes Anthea McCarthy-Jones in the Conversation. She delves into how, under Maduro, Venezuela has transitioned from authoritarian rule into a "mafia state."
  • For InSight Crime: "The co-opting of government institutions, direct links between the Maduro government and Venezuelan economic elites replete with ill-gotten profits, and the government’s open encouragement of armed groups to intimidate the population are three signs that Venezuela’s crisis is deepening. The situation has reached the point of a humanitarian emergency, and the government has degenerated into a mafia state."
  • Venezuela's public universities have been particularly hit by Venezuela's political machine over the past 20 years, writes Carlos Sandoval in a New York Times Español op-ed detailing the pauperization of professors who work without budgets and electricity, for laughable wages that aren't enough for even the basic food basket.
  • Former Venezuelan attorney general Luisa Ortega lodged complaints in the International Criminal Court in the Hague against the Venezuelan government over the alleged murder of councillor Fernando Albán and allegations by former Supreme Court judge Christian Zerpa who defected this month. (Efecto Cocuyo)
  • Russian officials are reportedly offering Venezuela an economic lifeline, reports Reuters.
  • Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov expressed concern over talk of a possible U.S. military option in Venezuela, and accused Washington of influencing against discussions between the political opposition and Maduro. (Reuters and EFE)
Regional Relations
  • Colombian President Iván Duque proposed a conservative regional bloc alternative to Venezuelan-led Unasur. The group would be called Prosur, and he has discussed it with Chilean President Sebastián Piñera, reports the Associated Press. Colombia withdrew from Unasur in August and five other countries have suspended their participation.
  • From opposite ends of the political spectrum, Mexico and Brazil's new governments are disengaging from multilateralism, writes Mac Margolis in a Bloomberg opinion piece.
  • Argentine President Mauricio Macri will visit Brazil today, where he will likely discuss trade issues with his counterpart, Jair Bolsonaro. (AFP)
  • Trump hearts Bolsonaro, according to AFP. Or as Nacla terms it: Trump’s New Authoritarian Bromance.
Brazil
  • The Bolsonaro administration will seek to crack down on land invasions, with penalties akin to terrorism, reports Reuters.
  • Bolsonaro signed a presidential decree yesterday loosening gun ownership laws. (See yesterday's briefs.) The new policy eliminates a requirement asking potential owners to explain why they need a weapon and have that reason approved by police. Instead Brazilians have been presented with a list of conditions that justify the need for gun ownership. They include being responsible for a commercial or industrial establishment, being a gun collector or hunter, living in a rural area or living in a city with elevated crime rates — as the vast majority of Brazilians do, notes the New York Times. Critics say the measure will only worsen record homicide and violence rates in the country, reports the Washington Post.
  • The military has increased its presence in the Bolsonaro administration's economic arena, with several key appointments in government departments and state companies, reports Folha de S. Paulo.
Colombia
  • Former FARC negotiator, Iván Márquez, said giving up arms was a mistake for the guerrilla group. His location has been unknown since he decided not to assume his senate seat last year. (France 24)
  • Duque never got a honeymoon -- his approval ratings are at 24 percent and he faces the challenge of governing a polarized country where protests are increasingly destabilizing his administration, writes Marcela Prieto in Americas Quarterly.
Human Rights
  • Front Line Defenders reports that 321 human rights defenders were killed around the world last year -- more than half in Mexico and Colombia.
Haiti
  • The Haitian city of Canaan is home to about 320,000 people. It formed as a haven for people displaced by the 2010 earthquake, and has been largely left to its own devices ever since, reports U.S. News.
Honduras
  • Honduras' Supreme Court confirmed a 2016 10-year defamation sentence for journalist David Romero Ellner. Romero said the case is politically motivated. Romero denounced a case of alleged misuse of Honduran Social Security Institute funds to finance President Juan Orlando Hernández's electoral campaign. (Knight Center for Journalism in the Americas)
  • A series of massacres so far this year in Honduras have claimed 30 lives -- casting doubt on the government's claims of security gains, reports InSight Crime.
El Salvador
  • Tim Muth breaks down data on political donations in El Salvador. Conservative ARENA party received the bulk of donations,  $44.5 million in donations between 2006 and 2017 compared to only $13 million for the FMLN. There is not yet a lot of public data on leading presidential candidate Nayib Bukele's funding, he notes.
Argentina
  • Argentina's inflation rate last year was officially 47.6 percent -- the highest since 1991 and one of the highest in the world. (Associated Press)
Vultures
  • Aurelius Capital is suing Argentina again. This time alleging the country miscalculated a payment and owes the hedge fund $83.7 million. (Bloomberg)
Poverty
  • More than 10 percent of Latin Americans live in extreme poverty according to ECLAC. (EFE)
Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Guatemalans protest Morales' anti CICIG measures (Jan 15, 2019)

Guatemalans around the country protested against the government yesterday -- angered by the Morales administration's efforts to terminate a U.N. backed international anti-corruption commission and lack of improvement on education, health, and security, reports El Periódico. Much of Guatemala City's center was closed off to prevent demonstrations near Congress, where Morales' gave his third state of the union address yesterday, reports Soy 502. (See below)

The rallies followed protests last week over President Jimmy Morales' summary termination of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) mandate, reports Al Jazeera. Hundreds protested in Guatemala City on Saturday, reports Reuters. (See last Tuesday's post.)

U.N. human rights chief Michelle Bachelet urged the government "to guarantee freedom of expression and opinion, and the right to peaceful assembly and association." She also "expressed great concern about the ongoing erosion of various State institutions, including recent attacks on the independence of the Constitutional Court."

The Supreme Court is analyzing impeachment cases against Constitutional Court magistrates in relation to their defense of the CICIG in judgements -- but the CC has historically rejected such cases, arguing that judges cannot be prosecuted for opinions expressed in their decisions, reports El Periódico. (See last Wednesday's post.)

The Los Angeles Times contrasts the U.S.'s ambivalent attitude regarding Morales' onslaught against the CICIG with its defense of the U.N. commission in 2015. The change is linked to multiple factors, including Guatemalan lobbying among conservative U.S. lawmakers.

Morales gave his third yearly report before lawmakers yesterday. He emphasized the defense of sovereignty, part of his campaign against the CICIG, though he didn't explicitly mention the anti-impunity commission. He did maintain that the government has made advances in terms of transparency and anti-corruption measures. (El PeriódicoLa HoraNómadaCNÑ) He was echoed by Congress president Álvaro Arzú Escobar, who called the CICIG "another failed U.N. experiment." (República and Prensa Libre)

A long list of officials skipped the speech: the members of the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, attorney general Consuelo Porras, Human Rights Prosecutor Jordan Rodas, and U.S. ambassador Luis Arrega. (Nómada) Many members of the opposition were also absent or left the Congress in protest of Morales. (Soy 502)

It's Morales' last year in office, and analysts in La Hora have few expectations for policy innovation. Soy 502 has a fact check on Morales' speech, refuting many of what he called signature policies.

News Briefs

Venezuela
  • Juan Guaidó, the young head of Venezuela's National Assembly, has been catapulted to fame as the new face of opposition to President Nicolás Maduro, reports the Washington Post.  His combative stance has also provoked fears of a new crackdown though, reports the Guardian. (See yesterday's post.)
Haiti
  • At least 21 people were killed in a November massacre in Port-au-Prince, an attack led by a group of men in police uniform, reports the Associated Press. U.N. officials said they expect to complete an investigation into the killings within weeks.
Brazil 
  • Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro signed a decree loosening gun regulations today. It's the first major policy move in his two weeks of governance, aimed at making it easier for civilians to defend themselves from rampant violence. It is the first in a series of measures reforming Brazil's 15-year-old gun laws. (Wall Street Journal)
  • Now in it's third week, the wave of fire and bombing attacks in Ceará state shows no sign of letting up -- there were at least eight attacks on Sunday, including two bridges blown up and a school bus set on fire. (See last Wednesday's post.) It's a sign of how Brazil urgently needs penal reform and alternatives to tough-on-crime measures, according to the Guardian.
  • Rio de Janeiro's governor -- a Boslonaro ally -- shut-down an exhibit to prevent a performance attacking dictatorship-era torture, reports the Guardian. Artists retaliated with a pop-up street show protesting censorship.
  • Gisele Bündchen is a bad Brazilian, according to the new agriculture minister, who said her environmental activism has tainted the country’s image abroad. (Guardian)
Mexico
  • A presidential truth commission for the Ayotzinapa case starts work today in Mexico, reports Animal Político. (See post for Dec. 4, 2018.)
  • Mexican senators heard presentations from the 27 finalists for the new attorney general position -- but organizations of civil society rejected the procedure in which candidates were not questioned, reports Animal Político.
  • Mexico's fuel shortage crisis is an example of how populist governments blunder, according to Francisco Toro and James Bosworth in a Washington Post opinion piece.
  • Authorities keep discovering tunnels under the Mexico-U.S. border, presumably used to smuggle drugs, they underscore the futility of the U.S. administration's insistence on a wall to separate the two countries, according to the Washington Post.
Regional Relations
  • The U.S. Trump administration's reported plan to cut the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Nicaragua out of a Central America free trade agreement appears to be related to concerns over Chinese backdoor access to the U.S. market. (See last Thursday's briefs.) But the move will only increase the pressure of the migrant crisis, argues Kimberly Ann Elliott in World Politics Review.
Organized Crime
  • "Current trends all point to a strengthening of organized crime throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, as the criminals adapt far more quickly than authorities to changing conditions and take advantage of new opportunities," according to a new report by InSight Crime.
Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...

Monday, January 14, 2019

Guaidó briefly detained by Sebin (Jan. 14, 2018)

Venezuelan National Assembly president Juan Guaidó was briefly detained by Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (Sebin) agents yesterday. He was apparently detained while traveling on a highway yesterday, two days after declaring he would be willing to temporarily assume Venezuela's presidency until new elections could be organized. The opposition-led National Assembly -- as well as much of the international community -- considers President Nicolás Maduro's second term, which began Thursday, to be illegitimate having been obtained through elections widely denounced as irregular. (See Friday's post.)

A video recorded by a driver stuck in traffic on the highway appeared to show masked, heavily armed Sebin agents pulling a man assumed to be Guaidó from his vehicle and pushing him into a white van before driving away, reports the New York Times.
Venezuela’s Information Minister Jorge Rodríguez said the Sebin officers acted unilaterally -- possibly seeking to embarrass the government -- and will be sanctioned, report Efecto Cocuyo and the Miami Herald. He also suggested the opposition had orchestrated the episode. Guaidó questioned this version of events, and later told the Associated Press that the officers informed him they were carrying out orders from above.

The confusing incident will likely further increase already high tensions between the government and the political opposition, as well as Maduro's international isolation, reports the Associated Press. Opposition leader Leopoldo López, who is under house arrest, suggested that Guaidó's release represents a break within the ranks of Sebin, reports Efecto Cocuyo. Opposition party Acción Democrática suggested the detention was the work of the government's more militaristic faction. (Efecto Cocuyo)

Two international journalists covering the detention -- Osmary Hernández of CNN Español and Beatriz Adrián of Caracol Radio -- were also arrested and held for hours by the Sebin. (Efecto Cocuyo)

In a speech Friday, Guaidó said the constitution grants him the legitimacy to exercise the presidency and call new elections. He called on citizens and the armed forces to stand by his efforts, reports the Caracas Chronicles. He did not actually declare himself the country's legitimate president -- though yesterday he characterized his detention as a coup d'etat, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

Nonetheless, OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro and Brazil's government responded by recognizing him as Venezuela's transitional leader. Venezuela's exiled former attorney general Luisa Ortega also referred to Guaidó as the "new interim president."

Most other countries struck a more careful balancing act. Geoff Ramsey told the Washington Post the U.S. government exercising caution and is engaged in a “careful little dance” in Venezuela. Though they has said Maduro does not legitimately hold his post, U.S. officials have stopped short of cutting off diplomatic relations. The State Department called for a transition government and said it stands by Guaidó. (Associated Press) Similarly, Chilean President Sebastián Piñera offered Guaidó full support, and called on Maduro to transfer power to the National Assembly president.

Guaidó is calling on citizens to focus their efforts in a massive outpouring on Jan. 23. In recent days he has tried to rekindle small protests by holding rallies in diverse cities, reports the Wall Street Journal.

News Briefs

International Relations
  • Maduro's government in Venezuela, and Brazil's rightward swing under new President Jair Bolsonaro make confrontation between the two -- including the potential for military escalation -- increasingly likely, according to the Washington Post. (See last Wednesday's briefs.)
Nicaragua
  • The New York Times reports on a safe house in Costa Rica where 50 Nicaraguan political fugitives have taken residence, just a fraction of the 23,000 who have fled their country's political repression since last April.
  • Former Nicaraguan Supreme Court magistrate Rafael Solis told the New York Times he regrets his 2009 ruling permitting President Daniel Ortega to run for reelection, but has few illusions that his defection last week will have a major impact on Nicaragua's political crisis. (See Friday's briefs.)
Migration
  • A new migrant caravan is forming in Honduras, organized through social media, much like the ones that grabbed headlines last year. This time, the new Mexican government said it is preparing to help migrants enter "in a safe and orderly way." (Washington Post) But U.S. President Donald Trump is doubling down on his narrative of migrants as security threats, and maintains that a border wall with Mexico is the only solution. (New York Times)
  • A member of the October 2018 caravan was killed after being deported back to Honduras by U.S. authorities who rejected his asylum claim. (Guardian)
Honduras
  •  Halfway through its four-year mandate, the Mission to Support the Fight against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH) has scored some important successes but confronts growing sabotage from segments of Honduras’s political elite determined to undermine the Mission’s work, reports American University's Center for Latin American & Latino Studies.
Cuba
  • The internet -- and greater access to it -- is giving Cuban activists space to debate in a country where political freedoms are limited, writes Yoani Sánchez in a New York Times Español op-ed recounting her work to breach digital censorship over the past decade.
Ecuador
  • Seventeen people died and 12 more were injured at a fire in a drug rehabilitation clinic in Guayaquil, after patients set fire to their mattresses in an attempt to break out of the unlicensed facility. (Reuters)
Spiders
  • Giant spiders hanging out in Minas Gerais skies seem terrifying, but are apparently not dangerous at all. (Guardian)
Did I miss something, get something wrong, or do you have a different take? Let me know ...