Colombia and Brazil tighten border against Venezuela (Feb. 9, 2018)

Colombia announced measures to tighten border control as thousands of Venezuelans attempt to flee their country's crisis. Effective immediately, Venezuelans will need valid passports to cross the border legally, but obtaining a passport in Venezuela can be extremely difficult. More than 2,000 additional military officers will be deployed along the porous border between the two countries, and migration authorities are canceling temporary border crossing cards that allowed Venezuelans to come in for a short stay to purchase goods.

Brazil's defense minister said yesterday that the country is also exploring how to bolster border security. About 60,000 Venezuelans are now living in Roraima state. He said the country would seek to relocate refugees.

Colombia migration authorities say there are an estimated 600,000 Venezuelans currently in Colombia — double the number six months ago. The numbers might be even higher, reports the Associated Press. Almost 96,000 Venezuelans entered Colombia legally in November, more than double the amount in the same month of the previous year, according to Bloomberg. At least half of the Venezuelans living in Colombia are doing so illegally.

Many are arriving in need of medical attention, putting strain on Colombia as it attempts to implement a ground-breaking peace deal with the FARC. Colombian health services have vaccinated more than 112,000 people, attended more than 23,000 children and nearly 900 women about to give birth. About 10,000 minors have entered the public school system, reports El País.

The moves could eliminate an important social safety valve in Venezuela, where people are increasingly desperate for food and medication, reports Reuters. They also show mounting regional frustration with the Venezuelan government.

President Juan Manuel Santos yesterday emphasized solidarity with Venezuela, and urged his counterpart, President Nicolás Maduro to accept humanitarian aide to stop the flow of refugees. Santos remembered that millions of Colombians emigrated to Venezuela in the past, and called on Colombians to avoid xenophobia in the context of legislative and presidential electoral campaigns, reports EFE.

The Brazilian and Colombian announcements come after two attacks on migrants in Brazil this week, a sign of mounting frustration against the influx of migrants, according to Reuters.

On the subject of Venezuela's upcoming presidential elections (see yesterday's post): Peru called a meeting of the regional Lima Group to analyze the decision to hold them in April, and said conditions have not been met for a free and fair process, reports EFE.

The U.S. also criticized the unilateral call for elections, which occurred as negotiations between the government and the opposition fell apart in the Dominican Republic, reports EFE separately.

At Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights, Geoff Ramsey analyzes the different proposals in the Santo Domingo negotiations. While the government was willing to pay lip service to transparency -- inviting international observation -- it did not accede to demands for actual monitoring, nor new electoral authorities. The opposition also demanded that bans on its most prominent leaders be lifted, and for strict electoral guarantees.

With the elections set to proceed, nonetheless, the debate is whether the opposition should participate, despite the lack of guarantees. David Smilde argues that they should in a Voice of America interview.

Reuters reports on increased looting of trucks carrying food supplies in Venezuela. And protesters in Caracas yesterday demanded access to medications, reports the Miami Herald.

Human Rights Watch lauded the International Criminal Court prosecutor's decision to open a preliminary examination into alleged human rights violations committed by Venezuela's security forces. (See yesterday's briefs.) "By opening a preliminary examination, the ICC prosecutor is sending a powerful message that her office is closely tracking the Maduro government’s egregious abuses," said José Miguel Vivanco, Americas director at Human Rights Watch. "The Venezuelan judiciary has allowed impunity to flourish, but depending on the ICC’s decisions there may be another path for Venezuelan victims of abuse to have their day in court."

News Briefs

• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned regional leaders against Chinese imperialism last week (see Monday's briefs), but observers can't help but contrast the U.S.'s aggressive rhetoric with Chinese interest in investing, reports the Guardian. Experts say that the Trump administration is all but pushing governments towards China, but are also skeptical of the political influence Chinese investments might exert.

• Cultural conservatism is changing Latin America's electoral map and will impact human rights in the region, writes Silvio Waisbord in a New York Times Español op-ed, noting the results of Costa Rica's presidential election last Sunday. (See Monday's post.) Recent social gains are at risk. "The continent's rightward swing and the growing influence of religion on politics gives tailwind to a cultural reaction that aims to rollback some major social achievements, including increased awareness of gender violence and the participation of transexual persons in politics."  The rather vague and opaque term "gender ideology" is increasingly lobbed by those who believe traditional values are being undermined by human rights talk, he writes.

• Latin America remains an area with disproportionately high rates of violent crime, but some countries have made a significant dent in their homicide rates, write Robert Muggah and Katherine Aguirre in Americas Quarterly.

• Homicides are most certainly not going down in Mexico -- last year had the highest murder rate on record. Yet the issue has been somewhat under the radar in the presidential campaign, reports InSight Crime. The next administration should avoid a grand solution, and focus on policing itself, especially local strategies, rather than institutional reform, recommends the piece. On a more long-term scale, the piece also recommends judicial reform and targeting corruption.

• Jalisco Cartel New Generation is an upstart criminal organization with increasing impact on the country's violent scene, reports InSight Crime, in a piece that looks at how the group is consolidating and expanding.

• Oxfam denied covering up use of prostitutes by the organization's aid workers in Haiti, reports the BBC.

• Anti-gay bills in Haiti have had a chilling effect on the LGBT community, despite not having passed, reports PRI.

• Peruvian authorities want to shield companies collaborating with prosecutors on graft cases from financial restrictions, in a bid to keep Operation Car Wash revelations from paralyzing the construction sector and encourage them to share evidence of wrongdoing, reports Reuters.

• More than a dozen indigenous families have been camped out in front of Paraguay's Congress for over two months, since being forced off their land by Brazilian soy barons, reports EFE.

• Outrage about corruption in Brazil could give environmentalist Marina Silva a fighting chance of finally winning the presidency, after several failed runs in the past, reports Reuters.

• The potential elimination of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from the running after a corruption conviction against him was upheld last month, together with 2015 electoral reforms limiting corporate donations to campaigns, throw Brazil's parties into uncharted waters, writes Paulo Castro at the Aula blog. "The final outcome of the Lula case and implementation of the reforms could ignite further political instability.  Lula’s arrest could very well spark a new wave of demonstrations, with possible violence.  Lacking resources, Bolsonaro – who has already advocated military intervention in civilian political affairs – will try to rally right-wing groups behind his candidacy.  Combined, these opposing movements create a dangerous political landscape that brings both sides of the spectrum to doubt the capacity of democratic institutions.  A recent survey by Latinobarometro already shows that only 13 percent of Brazilians are pleased with the current state of their democracy."

• Cuban investigators say U.S. Embassy workers were definitely not the victims of "sonic" attacks, reports the Miami Herald.

• Illegal immigration goes both ways: but Mexican authorities usually turn a blind eye to the U.S. senior citizens that increasingly move south, reports the Economist. Lack of healthcare will likely stop a massive migration, however.

• Bogotá residents are holding their noses as trash piles up in the midst of a collectors' strike, reports the BBC.

• Medellín university students -- male and female -- wore miniskirts to protest administration advice to women to avoid wearing short skirts that could distract fellow students and teachers, reports the BBC. 

• Carnival revelers in Trinidad and Tobago must obtain consent from dance partners before grinding, reports the Miami Herald.

Venezuelan elections in April, no agreement with opposition (Feb. 8, 2017)

Venezuela's government announced elections for April 22. President Nicolás Maduro is seeking a second term in the midst of a protracted political, social and economic crisis. Most of the opposition's top contenders have been banned from participating, and it is not clear who will run against the government, reports the New York Times. Many opposition parties were also made ineligible by the government, after boycotting municipal elections in December due to alleged fraud and irregularities in an earlier October regional elections.

The upcoming snap presidential elections don't appear to be off to a promising start. The announcement comes as negotiations between the government and members of an opposition coalition -- aimed in part at ensuring free and fair elections -- failed in Santo Domingo yesterday. 

El País reports that the agreement proposed by the government consisted of generic platitudes regarding the importance of electoral guarantees and fair process, but that negotiators refused to consider opposition demands for more time before the vote and of changing the composition of the electoral council, which has been accused of working in favor of the government. Opposition leaders sought a later election date and concrete measure to guarantee equitable access to publicity and  a veto of use of public resources in the campaign.

Efecto Cocuyo reports that the government negotiators didn't even show up after failing to sign an accord on Tuesday. (See yesterday's post.) Opposition negotiators said their demand to free political prisoners was not heard, and government negotiators accused the U.S. of intervening against a pact.

Opposition leader Julio Borges, the MUD coalition's lead negotiator in the Dominican Republic discussions, said there were two potential scenarios moving forward: a full boycott from all opposition parties, in demand of electoral guarantees, or a unified "anti-system" candidate. He said the strategic decision must be taken quickly, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

Venezuela's government is required to hold a presidential election this year, but critics note that the short time frame and barring of most of the relevant players in the opposition field mean the exercise is unlikely to result in international recognition. The U.S. and major countries in the region have already announced they would not recognize the results, notes the Financial Times.

Some experts say the top potential opposition candidate would be Henry Ramos Allup, the former leader of the national assembly. His party is still eligible to run. (See post for Jan. 4, 2016)

The government said a window of only three weeks will be allowed for campaigning, between April 2 and April 19.

News Briefs

• The International Criminal Court has opened a preliminary probe against Venezuela, for alleged crimes against humanity during repression of political demonstrations last year and the arrest and detention of members of the opposition, reports AFP. The process is preliminary, and examines the available information to determine if a full investigation is warranted, explains EFE.

• Human Rights Watch called on Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos to intervene in the case of 61 people detained arbitrarily in Venezuela. Sixty are Colombian citizens, and one is a Venezuelan unfairly expelled from Colombia, according to the organization. Most were detained in a 2016 police crackdown, part of a criticized "Operación de Liberación del Pueblo" which has been accused of human rights violations.

• Nómada has an in-depth investigation into how Guatemala dramatically reduced its homicide rates from 17 per 100,000 in 2008 to 12 in 2016. "In a violent neighborhood like Central America and Mexico, that a country has reduced its homicides for nine consecutive years should be news. It isn't in Guatemala. Because nobody claims it and because nobody has a convincing answer that explains why at least 4030 lives were saved." The piece explores seven neighborhoods where homicides changed most radically, looks at available data and checks out several hypothesis as to why the reduction happened. In an accompanying editorial, Martín Rodríguez Pellecer and Elsa Cabria focus on the work of the Public Ministry and the CICIG in persecuting "social cleansing" carried out by elite groups of the Policía Nacional Civil.

• Two years ago, Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales took office promising change. Since then, he's "allowed himself to be guided by dark powers and withdrawn his support for anti-corruption efforts in order to save his and his family's necks," writes Paolina Albani in Nueva Sociedad, wading in to the trajectory of the administration over the past two years.

• Bermuda has become the first country in the world to legalize and then rollback same-sex marriage, reports the Guardian. The governor signed a bill repealing gay marriage, though a supreme court ruling last year authorized it. The government argued that legislation permitting domestic partnerships complies with European court rulings regarding LGBT rights balanced with voter opposition to same sex marriage in a referendum.

• The British government approved the sale of sophisticated spyware to the Honduran government, shortly before the questioned November presidential elections. Telecommunications interception equipment worth at least £300,000, technology which can be used to intercept, monitor and track emails, mobile phones, and online messaging services such as WhatsApp was sold to Honduras for use by its law enforcement agencies, reports the Guardian, which notes that the country's security forces have a "dismal" human rights record. "At least 40 people have been killed since the elections, and more than 2,000 detained, with many held under a controversial new terrorism law. High-profile activists say they have been harassed and intimidated by security forces."

• Trump's criticized immigration plan, though in many ways offensive to Mexicans, could have several advantages, if "viewed somewhat cynically from the perspective of strict Mexican national interests," argues Jorge Castañeda in a New York Times op-ed. "... The four-pillar plan has inconveniences for Mexico but also many advantages. That it is racist as well as unworthy of the American immigration ideal and inflames the worst demons in American society is another matter. As Mr. Trump says, countries have to look out for their own interests."

• A São Paulo carnival event -- billed as "Brazil’s largest anti-Communist block party" -- has been criticized for glorifying Brazil's dictatorship past. The carnival event “Dops Basement” is named after the Department of Political and Social Order, a police intelligence agency that tortured dissidents during the 1964-1985 military regime, reports the Guardian. Prosecutors tried to stop the party, but a judge permitted it to go ahead, citing freedom of expression. The debate takes on special relevance in light of the popularity of right-wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who is a vocal supporter of the military regime.

• An Mexican YouTube political satirist was killed in Acapulco this week by gunmen. Authorities say Leslie Ann Pamela Montenegro del Real, better known for her irreverent character "Nana Pelucas," was killed by members of a criminal gang. Her videos also criticized Acapulco's PRD government, notes Animal Político.

• Illegal fuel taps increased by about 50 percent last year according to Mexican state oil company Pemex. Last year, Mexico’s government estimated that the 2016 thefts cost Pemex about $1 billion for the year, reports the Associated Press. (See briefs for May 15, 2017.)

• Increasing renewable energy to 80 percent of the energy matrix and expanding cross-border connections, could save Latin American countries "billions of dollars in investments, avoid blackouts and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, according to recent findings by the Inter-American Development Bank." But the main obstacle to energy integration is political, argue Lisa Viscidi and Ariel Yépez in a New York Times op-ed. "Most countries are reluctant to rely on their neighbors for energy, deeming self-sufficiency more important than cost, reliability and sustainability. Rather than pursuing this narrow view of energy security, Latin American countries should embrace the advantages of electricity diversification by interconnecting."

• Ambitious food regulations in Chile aim to fight the nation's obesity epidemic by limiting how companies can market products, especially to kids, reports the New York Times. In addition to prohibiting cartoon characters from junk food packages, and toys from candy like Kinder eggs, a new measure will require packaged food companies to display black warning logos on items high in sugar, salt, calories or saturated fat. "Strolling through a Chilean supermarket can be visually jarring. Boxes of Nesquik chocolate powder no longer include Nestle’s hyperkinetic bunny. Gone, too, are the dancing candies that enliven packages of M&Ms the world over. Then there are the warning signs that appear on the front of countless items. Cereal bars, yogurts and juice boxes, products long advertised as “healthy,” “natural” or “fortified with vitamins and minerals,” now carry one or more of the black warning labels."

Venezuelan negotiations foundering (Feb. 7, 2018)

Negotiations between the Venezuelan government and the opposition ended dramatically yesterday, but still without an agreement over how to guarantee free and fair elections. Dominican President Danilo Medina, who is serving as a mediator, said the discussions could continue today, reports Efecto Cocuyo. Telam reports that negotiations were continuing this morning. (See last Thursday's post.)

The Venezuelan government signed a "final" accord, at a table set with two pens, but failed to get their counterparts to agree report the Associated Press and  EFE. The two sides have been negotiating in the Dominican Republic regarding how to exit Venezuela's political crisis. The current focus is on guaranteeing free and fair elections, to be held before May.

The Venezuelan government accused the U.S. of sabotaging the discussions, and said all the details had been ironed out on Monday in Caracas. Lead opposition negotiator Julio Borges denied receiving instructions from U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to jettison an accord.

Yesterday Borges said he would not sign an agreement that jeopardized the country's democracy, reports Efecto Cocuyo separately. Chilean Foreign Minister Heraldo Muñoz, who was serving as a guarantor in the discussions, said opposition delegates were under enormous pressure to sign an agreement that did not include adequate guarantees for the upcoming presidential elections.

In Bogotá yesterday, Tillerson said the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is a top priority for the U.S., reports the Miami Herald. On Sunday he said the U.S. is considering limiting oil sales from Venezuela, reports the Associated Press. While he has focused on obtaining regional support for further sanctions in his LatAm tour this week, he merely voiced support for free elections yesterday.

But Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos spoke harshly, saying Maduro will "never accept going to free and fair elections because he knows he will lose," reports Efecto Cocuyo. Santos said that given the conditions in Venezuela, it was unlikely that Colombia, and the rest of the regional block known as the Lima Group, would be able to recognize the results of presidential elections that will be held before May.

As the country seems likely headed into elections that will not be free, fair or transparent, opposition voters are increasingly looking at business leader Lorenzo Mendoza, reports Americas Quarterly. However, while he is well regarded, political considerations in a deeply divided opposition movement whose most popular leaders have been prohibited from running might well complicate his candidacy, writes Seijas Rodríguez.

Venezuela aside: Caracas residents were hit by a major power outage last night, reports the BBC. Government officials blamed "sabotage."

News Briefs

• In Colombia Tillerson praised Colombian efforts to reduce cocaine production, but warned that the U.S. is seeking to see results, reports the Associated Press. Santos noted that efforts to reduce U.S. demand for illicit drugs are also critical.

• U.N. Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, Agnes Callamard, said that Salvadoran extraordinary measures to isolate imprisoned gang members are aimed at dehumanizing prisoners and must be stopped immediately, reports El Faro. (See yesterday's briefs.) Despite previous U.N. condemnation, the Salvadoran government is seeking to extend exceptional measures permitting restrictions on rights of incarcerated suspected gang members. (See Jan. 30's briefs.)

• A new Mitofsky poll puts San Salvador mayor Nayib Bukele ahead of opinion polls for next year's presidential elections. Outsider Bukele has a strong lead over the main ARENA and FMLN would-be candidates, with nearly 50 percent support, reports Contrapunto.

• The OAS anti-corruption mission in Honduras has proof linking former President Porfirio Lobo to a powerful drug smuggling group, who in turn benefited from state hydroelectric contracts, reports El País. MACCIH investigators, along with Honduran prosecutors, are investigating Lobo, his wife, and several officials from the ruling party. Sources in the piece say the investigations are what spurred government attempts to limit MACCIH's investigations, the so-called "impunity pact." (See Jan. 24's post.) "If officially confirmed, the latest allegations against Lobo would illustrate how the MACCIH’s support — and that of the international community — has empowered the Attorney General’s Office to go after Honduras’ most powerful elites even in the face of strong resistance to anti-corruption efforts," according to InSight Crime.

• The mother of a Chilean woman who says her daughter was driven to suicide by an abusive boyfriend is lobbying for a law to penalize causing suicide through extreme physical and psychological aggression, reports the Guardian.

• Two dueling New York Times Español op-eds pose different views of the Ecuadorian referendum on Sunday that reinstated presidential term limits, among other things. (See Monday's post.) Citizen support to rollback indefinite reelection, which would have permitted former president Rafael Correa to run for a fourth term in 2021, spells out political death for the charismatic leader, argues María Sol Borja. She also notes the relevance of another referendum question, that will allow President Lenín Moreno to restructure a Citizen Participation committee with power to name important government officials. Not so fast, warns Soraya Constante. Correismo obtained nearly 37 percent of votes, making it a relevant political actor that is attracting dissidents from the governing Alianza País. And the referendum itself does not strike at the heart of many of the institutional reforms carried out by Correa, she argues, including the media law that allowed the government to silence opposition voices.

• An InSight Crime and American University investigation questions the Trump administration's attempts to link migration with the U.S. expansion of Salvadoran street gang MS-13. "While there is clearly some communication, coordination and, in some instances, intent to commit criminal acts across borders, there is little to suggest that the migration of members and potential recruits is controlled in a top-down, coordinated fashion. And while there appears to be a disproportionate number of UAC’s involved in recent gang activities, they represent a tiny fraction of the total UAC [unaccompanied alien children] population." 

• Attempts by migrants to cross into the U.S. from Mexico fell last year, but the number who died doing so increased, according to the International Organization for Migration. Last year, 412 migrant deaths were recorded on either side of the border, up from 398 a year earlier, reports the AFP.

• Mexico is one of the wold's most dangerous countries for journalists, forcing dozens to give up their lives and families and go into hiding in an attempt to avoid hitmen, reports the Los Angeles Times. Many seek refuge in the U.S., but have been denied asylum.

• The latest Mexican opinion poll has Andrés Manuel López Obrador still firmly in the lead, with 38 percentage points. His rivals are closing the gap slightly though, reports Reuters.

• Brazilian police arrested 13 members of a religious sect suspected of forcing followers into enslavement, reports the BBC.

• Two children were killed by gunfire in two separate incidents in Rio de Janeiro, just days before the emblematic Carnival celebrations. Nine people were also killed between Friday and Sunday, and police were forced to shut down three major highways, reports the Guardian.

• Violence, ever more pronounced in Brazil, is fueled by criminal organizations and their struggles to defeat each other, writes Calorina Sampó in Nueva Sociedad. She catalogues the country's main gangs, including Primeiro Comando Da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho(CV). Earlier this month, a piece in Americas Quarterly examined the rise of the PCC over the past quarter decade, "from a union of inmates seeking better treatment in Brazilian prisons into a multinational mafia with a global reach."

• International policy in the region is more atomized than ever. Collective decision making has given way to individualist strategies of "every man for himself," argue Alejandro Frenkel and Nicolás Comini in Nueva Sociedad. 

U.N. Rapporteur says Salvadoran police may have committed extrajudicial killings (Feb. 6, 2018)

News Briefs

• Police in El Salvador may have committed extrajudicial killings and used excessive force in their battle against violent street gangs, said the U.N. Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, Agnes Callamard. Callamard was on a two-week tour of the country, and said her findings did not indicate a state policy, but rather actions of a few members of security forces, reports Reuters. "I have found a pattern of behavior between security personnel that could be considered as extrajudicial killings," Callamard told a news conference, without giving further details."This is fomented more by weak answers from public institutions," she said. Rights groups accuse the government of at least 1,000 illegal executions since 2014, notes Deutsche Welle.

• A Venezuelan victim of horrific sexual abuse has taken her case to the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. The hearing today will be the first related to gender-based violence in Venezuela to be judged by the court. Linda Loaiza was kidnapped and abused for four months in a Caracas apartment in 2001. She determined to take her case to the international body because of the failure of the Venezuelan justice system. Scores of judges refused to take her case, and her abductor was never charged with rape, reports the Guardian.

• The Venezuelan government has named a controversial official as "protector" of the opposition-governed border state of Táchira. The move is significant not only politically -- he is expected to try wrest power from opposition leaders -- but also involves "social control over a volatile but strategically critical region," reports InSight Crime. Freddy Bernal, the new Táchira protector, is one of many Venezuelan officials on the U.S. Treasury Department's Kingpinlist. "Bernal is infamous for his connections to the armed actors that have used their control over criminal economies to become key players along the Táchira-Norte de Santander border."

• Colombian presidential and legislative elections this year could leave the implementation of the FARC peace deal in the hands of leaders with a significantly different vision to that of President Juan Manuel Santos. That could mean that the more complicated social and economic reforms promised as part of the agreement will be left by the roadside, experts told Americas Quarterly. Lawmakers have been cool regarding several initiatives mandated by the agreement, and Santos is running low on political capital. "According to the Kroc Institute, a think tank, Colombia’s Congress has so far approved eight legislative initiatives tied to the peace accords. But legislators are still reviewing 12 peace deal laws, including one that would give deferential legal treatment to coca growers, and another to create a national system for agricultural innovation." And Santos unpopularity means backing the agreements is a poor electoral bet ... 

• With Chilean President Michelle Bachelet's tenure ending, an era of female leaders in the region is drawing to a close. Though Latin American countries have made inroads into gender disparity in politics, using quotas and affirmative action policies, political crises are showing that there is still a double standard when it comes to women and male presidents, argues Jennifer Piscopo in a New York Times op-ed. "My research shows that political parties from the left and right nominate fewer women when voters think the economy is doing poorly. Political parties on both sides also nominate fewer women when there is increased competition. In Latin America, disillusionment has fueled the growth of new parties. More choices for voters means fewer seats for each party — and parties with fewer seats to win appear less likely to take chances on women. More women in office also does not mean less discrimination or harassment. The glass ceiling remains."

• Top security officials in Mexico and Brazil are questioning traditional organized crime fighting strategies, but that is unlikely to translate to concrete policy changes, according to InSight Crime. 

• A person protesting against Honduras' questioned election results was killed on Monday when military police fired live rounds to clear demonstrators from a highway near the country’s Caribbean coast, reports the Associated Press.

• The Honduran attorney general and the Asociación para una Sociedad más Justa have challenged an Honduran reform that would complicate anti-corruption prosecution efforts, reports InSight Crime. (See Jan. 24's post.)

• A recent Associated Press report linking top Honduran police officials with drug trafficking could delegitimize the work of a special police commission aimed at rooting out corrupt cops, according to InSight Crime. (See Jan. 26's briefs.) The commission is investigating the allegations made in the report, linking Police Director José David Aguilar Morán with Wilter Blanco Ruíz, the leader of the Atlantic Cartel.

• Guatemalan authorities have arrested 28 people, including nine police officers, in a bust of a network allegedly involved in organized crime and drug trafficking, reports the Associated Press.
• There have been media reports of how Trump is casting a shadow over Mexican elections and drawing out nationalism in the electorate, but voters will likely focus more on national sources of discontent in choosing the next president, argues Shannon O'Neill in a Bloomberg column. In fact, U.S. influence has been positive in one of the country's key challenges, that of corruption, she writes, noting the impact of "high-profile [U.S.] prosecutions of insider trading, bribery, market manipulation and outright fraud."
• The Washington Post portrays Ecuador's referendum as part of a series of defeats for the populist left-wing movements of the region. (See yesterday's post.)
• A letter sent to the Pope in 2015 by a Chilean victim of sexual abuse has raised questions over his continued defense of a bishop accused of covering up for a pedophile priest, reports the New York Times.
• Farmers in Mexico's Mexicali valley fear a U.S. brewery will suck up the little water left for agriculture in the area, reports the Guardian.

• Zika babies are now two, and the their developmental delays are devastating their families, reports the Guardian.

• Amazon Watch launched a campaign today on calling on e-commerce giant Amazon.com to take real action to stop destruction of the biome after which CEO Jeff Bezos named his company. Amazon Watch, as part of its ongoing work to stop Amazon destruction, is pressuring Amazon.com to speak out about the importance of protecting the Amazon rainforest, cut its use of Amazonian crude oil, and invest in vehicles powered by renewable energy.

• The Guardian profiles the sudden change in lifestyle for people living along the Xingu river in Brazil, displaced to urban poverty by the Belo Horizonte dam. The "ribeirinhos" are "one of the most invisible, misunderstood populations in Brazil," according to the piece. "Accustomed to changing islands and indifferent to the concept of land as merchandise, they often confound people when they proclaim their freedom. ... They all work hard, because forest life is tough, but they only do what they want, when they want. Converting them into the urban poor drains them of their essence."

Latin America Daily Briefing

Ecuador's voters back Moreno, term limits (Feb. 5, 2018)

Ecuadoreans voted to reinstate presidential term limits, a political win for current President Lenín Moreno and a blow for his predecesor Rafael Correa. The referendum undoes a 2015 constitutional amendment pushed by Correa that permitted indefinite presidential reelection. Presidents are now limited to one reelection, reports the New York Times. 

More broadly, the results back Moreno after he won the presidency by a slim majority last year. About 64 percent of voters backed the rollback of the term-limit amendment. Correa warned the result would be political instability, reports the Associated Press. He argued that the 34 percent vote against rolling back the term limit amendment demonstrated that his political force remains the most dominant in the country. Both Moreno and Correa came from the same party, which has been divided since the two have feuded over the legacy of the "Citizens' Revolution," reports the Miami Herald.

A majority of voters around backed Moreno in all seven of the referendum questions posed to them several of which also angled against Correa administration reforms, such as political ineligibility for officials convicted of corruption, and another that gives Moreno more control of a citizen council that has authority over national institutions. Another key Correa reform that was eliminated is a capital gains tax on real estate. Other questions that were backed by voters included eliminating the statute of limitations for prosecution of sexual crimes committed against minors and prohibition of metal mining in protected areas. El Comercio has the full results.

Moreno promised the National Assembly will quickly advance on the legal reforms required to enact the referendum questions, reports El Tiempo.

A key issue in the election has been the debt taken on by the Correa administrations, between 2007 and 2017, reports the Los Angeles Times. Since taking office last year, Moreno revealed that Ecuador owed the Chinese about 500 million barrels of crude, the equivalent of three years' production. That means nearly all of this years oil production must be used to pay off debts, notes the piece.

Voters also chose to limit oil extraction in the Yasuni national park, home to 40 per cent of Ecuador’s petroleum reserves and one of the country's last uncontacted tribes, notes the Financial Times.

Most of the media reports mark that the results make Ecuador buck a recent trend of eliminating or softening term limits in the region.

Costa Rica election turns into referendum on marriage equality

Former television journalist and Pentacostal singer Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz won nearly 25 percent of the vote in Costa Rica's presidential election yesterday. The lawmaker was initially a long-shot, but was propelled to first place last month by his opposition to an international court ruling that obliges countries in the region to implement same-sex marriage. (See Jan. 10's briefs and Feb. 2's post.)

Alvarado Muñoz will face off against the ruling party candidate, former labor minister Carlos Alvarado Quesada (no relation) in an April 1 run-off. Alvarado Quesada got about 22 percent of the vote, reports the New York Times.

The Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruling was in response to an inquiry by outgoing president, Luis Guillermo Solís, but the ruling also applies to some 20 countries that acknowledge the court’s jurisdiction. The decision demonstrated the conservatism of Costa Ricans, most of whom disapprove of the directive. 

As Alvarado Quesada supports the ruling, the run-off will effectively turn into a referendum on the issue of gay marriage, according to Reuters. Alvarado Muñoz has called the ruling a violation of the country's sovereignty and has threatened to pull out of the regional court.

News Briefs

• Ahead of his ongoing LatAm tour, Tillerson warned countries in the region against trade with China, reports the New York Times. "China’s offer always comes at a price," he said in a speech at the University of Texas, Austin. "Latin America does not need new imperial powers that seek only to benefit their own people." The NYT notes that he did not mention how U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement is part of what left a vacuum for China to fill economically. (See Jan. 24's post and briefs.)

• In the same speech, Tillerson suggested that regime change in Venezuela could be carried out by the military, reports Reuters. "In the past, "when things are so bad that the military leadership realizes that they just — they can’t serve the citizens anymore, they will manage a peaceful transition," he said according to the New York Times, which cites it as an example of poor communication with a region still sensitive about military regimes backed by the U.S.

• But U.S. efforts to influence regional politics -- though most countries share concern regarding Venezuela -- have been undercut by President Donald Trump's rhetoric, notes the NYT. Miami Herald columnist Andrés Oppenheimer celebrates the decision to try to wrest the region away from Chinese influence. "Trouble is, you can’t win over Latin American countries if you’re constantly insulting them."

• The U.S.'s top career diplomat, Tom Shannon announced plans to retire last week from his post as under secretary of state for political affairs. The move will make room for hardliners in the Trump administration to take a stronger stance against Venezuela and Cuba, reports the Miami Herald. His 35 years of diplomatic experience were particularly focused on Latin American, and he served as ambassador to Venezuela in the 1990's, notes the Atlantic. Shannon's diplomacy was critical in avoiding stronger U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, for example, and he argued they would be counterproductive. The move also comes amid a moment of crisis for the Foreign Service -- 60 percent of the State Departments’ top-ranking career diplomats have left and new applications to join the Foreign Service have fallen by half.

• Disenchantment among voters in Venezuela will present a formidable obstacle to an already weakened political opposition headed into upcoming presidential elections, reports Reuters. Not only that, but the opposition is fragmented and many of its most well-known members have been barred from running, notes the piece.

• Media outlets in Mexico are beholden to government advertising funds, a situation that complicates freedom of the press in the country. The country's Supreme Court has ordered Congress to regulate public advertising, in response to a case brought by Artículo 19, and must do so by the end of April. But the regulation will be made difficult by lack of funding and time, argues Carlos Bravo Regidor in a New York Times Español op-ed. He outlines the paradox: "The arbitrarity of public advertising has distorted the financial model of a good part of Mexican media. Given that the market of private advertising could not sustain a media system of the size of Mexico's, the industry has become dependent on the income through public advertising. That dependence, in the best of cases, leaves the media in a very vulnerable position to political pressure ... and in the worst of cases, perverts them with the incentive to become deliberately rentier." Yet eliminating public funding would also affect media viability.

• InSight Crime interviews CICIG head Iván Velásquez, who said the U.N. backed anti-impunity commission's investigations have proved their working hypothesis: "that those in power seek total control of the state. ... So this phenomena, which isn’t just co-option of specific sectors of the government, seeks power over the state in its entirety. It’s also a problem that has developed over time, which has allowed us to come to the conclusion that corruption is not just circumstantial, or just a singular case, nor does it stem explicitly from the government or those certain people. Rather, it’s a structural issue, one that is already endemic in a corrupt system. All the things that we do to remove those who co-opt the state make those who have control of the state use everything in their power to prevent the state from being freed — that is, to prevent them from losing power, and losing their control."

• Nicaragua's homicide rate is quite low for Central America, where El Salvador is one of the world's most violent countries. Though it has many factors in common with it's murder-prone neighbors, its success in this aspect can be traced to post-revolutionary innovative policing focused on prevention, and an anti-machista culture promoted by Sandinista women, according to The Nation. 

• Brazilian Supreme Court chief justice spoke out against political criticisms of the court, in response to criticisms that judges are politically motivated, reports EFE.

• The issue has been in vogue lately, with the extremely popular former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, being blocked from running for president after an appeals court upheld a corruption conviction against him. "Many point to the decision as the highest example of justice being served in a country where impunity for the powerful has always been the rule," writes Alex Cuadros in the Atlantic. "But while an abundance of evidence shows that Lula received special favors from government contractors—and he still faces several other accusations of wrongdoing—legal experts with no special sympathy for him have argued that due process may have been abbreviated in order to convict him. The matter is all the more concerning given that Lula had planned another run for president this year, and is still by far the frontrunner."

• U.S. aerospace giant Boeing wants to buy Brazilian jet-maker Embraer, but the deal is apparently opposed by the Brazilian government, which can veto change in ownership in national company, reports the New York Times. 

• Lasers used from planes above the Guatemalan jungle show about 60,000 previously undiscovered Mayan structures, reports the New York Times. "The findings suggested an ancient society of such density and interconnectedness that even the most experienced archaeologists were surprised."

Gay marriage marks Costa Rica's presidential race (Feb. 2, 2018)

The issue of gay marriage has roiled Costa Rica's presidential campaign, ahead of voting this Sunday. The current poll leader, Evangelical Christian lawmaker Fabricio Alvarado, is trying to position the vote as a referendum on gay marriage, in response to a recent Inter-American Court of Human Rights calling on Costa Rica to legalize same-sex marriage.

Alvarado is unlikely to win outright, nor is he likely to win in an eventual run-off election, according to Reuters. However, his rhetoric has pushed other candidates to take more conservative positions.

A final poll published this week by University of Costa Rica’s Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP) shows the race to be a statistical rollercoaster, reports Americas Society /Council of the Americas, which reviews all of the candidates. Alvarado has 17 percent, five points above PLN candidate Antonio Álvarez. If he does not make it into the second round, it will be the first time since 1953 that the party is not one of the top two vote getters in a presidential election.

The race is also marked by discontent with establishment politicians, according to the Economist. Among other factors are an increase in homicides (though the rates are still far lower than elsewhere in the region) as well as growing income inequality.

News Briefs

• Ecuadoreans also head to the polls on Sunday, in a referendum that will ask them to weigh in on presidential term limits, among other reforms that could be rolled back. (See Tuesday's briefs and Jan 5's post.) The reinstatement of term limits would most affect former President Rafael Correa, who got rid of them in 2015, reports the Miami Herald. He has campaigned against the referendum questions, which would also undo other reforms he enacted, such as a citizen committee with power to appoint or fire the country's attorney general. The referendum is seen as a political showdown between Correa and his former vp, President Lenín Moreno. Less than a year after taking office, Moreno has broken decisively with his predecessor, in a range of policies. U.S. News and World Report notes in particular his emphasis on dialogue and a rollback of media repressive policies.

• Peru's government should revoke the humanitarian pardon granted to former autocratic President Alberto Fujimori, Human Rights Watch said ahead of Inter-American Court of Human Rights hearing on the case. Fujimori was serving a 25-year sentence for his role in extrajudicial killings, abductions, and enforced disappearances. There are strong reasons to believe that the release was the result of a negotiation in response to growing pressure from Fujimori supporters in Congress, including a recent attempt to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK), argues HRW in an amicus brief submitted to the court. CELS and Abuelas de Plaza de Mayo also submitted an amicus curiae brief in the case, arguing that such a pardon is incompatible with human rights violations, and how the pardon generates additional vulnerabilities for the original victims of Fujimori's policies.

• Fujimori's younger son, lawmaker Kenji Fujimori, split with his elder sister who leads the Fuerza Popular party. Kenji, whose support is surging, created a new faction in Congress with 10 dissident lawmakers, and has promised to support PPK, reports Reuters. (See yesterday's briefs.) Kenji has dubbed his group the Avengers, and told journalists that Fuerza Popular ignored his calls for internal reform after the party narrowly lost two presidential elections. 

• Geoff Ramsey at Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights analyzes the potential avenues for a deal between Venezuela's government and the opposition -- talks will likely conclude next week, with or without an agreement. A draft version of the agreement captured in a journalist's picture seem to indicate a potential delay of elections (set to happen before April 28) and a possible recomposition of the electoral authorities -- though its not clear that these proposals, aimed at ensuring a more fair electoral process, will prosper. In yesterday's post I incorrectly said Chile had withdrawn from it's mediating role -- it has actually threatened to do so if there are no advances, notes Ramsey. 

• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's Latin America tour, which started yesterday in Mexico, has a retrograde agenda focused on drugs, gangs, and illegal immigrants (with the addition of Venezuela), said the Latin America Working Group. "The United States should raise tough questions for governments of left and right, urging actions to protect human rights, strengthen the rule of law and democratic governance, and fight corruption. Instead, it seems to be a return to the past: Latin America as a threat, a rerun of the failed war on drugs, pressure for democratic change directed largely to left-wing governments, and turning back the clock on U.S. policy towards Cuba. This is accompanied by ever escalating demands to block migrants and refugees from crossing the U.S. border. We’ve seen this movie before," said Executive Directo Lisa Haugaard. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• During the trip Tillerson will attempt to convince nervous allies in Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Colombia and Jamaica "that U.S. foreign policy is deeper and more nuanced than the sometimes hostile rhetoric emerging from the White House," according to the Los Angeles Times. The piece quotes Cynthia Arnson, director of the Latin American program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, who says Latin American agendas and Trump are out of synch in many ways.

• U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Bob Menendez, from both sides of the aisle, have urged Tillerson to raise the issue of potential Russian meddling in elections in the region, reports CBS News.

• The case of Mexican teen Marco Antonio Sanchez, who disappeared for five days after being taken into police custody, has struck a chord in a country accustomed to frequent enforced disappearances, reports the Los Angeles Times. Though authorities deny wrongdoing, critics point to frequent human rights abuses by security forces and corrupt officials.

• At least 106,000 guns coming from the U.S. were linked to crimes in Mexico between 2011 and 2016, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, cited in a new report by the Center for American Progress. Of those, 70 percent were purchased legally in the U.S. Other estimates suggest that close to 213,000 firearms are smuggled across the U.S.-Mexico border each year.

• A controversial Bolivian law allows children as young as 10 to work, allowing families wrestling with poverty a potential lifeline. But the measure has been criticized by The United Nations, the International Labor Organization and other groups, who say it does not grant enough protections to the young workers, reports NBC News.

• A security forces crackdown in Jamaica's Montego Bay, conducted within a recently extended state-of-emergency, focused on reducing homicides and criminal organizations. Damion Blake at the Conversation explains the role lotto scammers play within the area's violence ecosystem: "Montego Bay also has a long-standing history of gang disputes in poor neighborhoods. So lotto scammers, who generally come from those same violent areas, often use their dirty money to secure protection. They pay criminal organizations to defend their homes and families and bribe police. Rich, protected and powerful, many lotto fraudsters eventually use their illegal earnings to purchase weapons and manpower, forming criminal gangs of their own and fighting for control over turf in Montego Bay."

• El Salvador's Supreme Court has preemptively blocked a bill that would bar same-sex marriage, reports the Associated Press.The ruling blocks lawmakers from ratifying the measure due to procedural missteps.

• El Salvador has one of the world's most draconian bans on abortion -- including threat to the woman's life -- but that doesn't mean that it's not a common practice in the country, reports El Faro. Of course, access to safe termination of pregnancy is an economic luxury. El Faro has a heartbreaking in-depth on the women and families affected by the policy, criticized by an Inter-American Commission on Human Rights report earlier this week. (See Tuesday's briefs.)

• The recent loss of 44 members of Argentina's navy in a submarine accident has revived a debate as to what use the armed forces could have in the country. In lieu of an external enemy, there have been calls to employ the military in a fight against "terrorism." However, while proponents tend to link "terrorism" with "drug trafficking" the two are hardly that related. Nor is the military the best instrument against terrorism, argues Juan Tokatlian in La Nación. (See briefs for Dec. 8, 2017.)

• Fidel Castro's eldest son committed suicide in Cuba, where he was receiving treatment for depression, reports the New York Times.

• This week Chile created five new national parks and extended three others -- adding 10.3 million acres of land to the national park system. In part, the conservation efforts are based on the work of Tompkins Conservation, which donated about one million acres. In a New York Times op-ed, Kristine McDivitt Tompkins, extolls the "crucial" leadership role of President Michelle Bachelet. "Anyone can conceive of big ideas, but to carve them into being requires political leaders with the courage to protect important landscapes."

• Foul-mouthed former Haitian President Michel Martelly has been banned from participating in two city's Carnival celebrations, reports the Miami Herald.

• Latin America's electoral supercycle, is marked by a geopolitical lull -- "free from major battles for regional influence, perhaps, but also devoid of any vision grand enough to unite all or significant part of the Americas" -- write Michael Camilleri and Ben Raderstorf in Americas Quarterly. Though the authors do not see the situation as negative, "the question is whether this is a lasting new reality: an Americas devoid of nations with the will, much less the capacity, to project power and influence beyond their own borders." They analyze potential scenarios, including a strengthened Chinese influence in the region.

Venezuela talks edging towards deal, maybe (Feb. 1, 2018)

Talks between the Venezuelan government and the political opposition are advancing, and could reach a final agreement as soon as next week -- depending who you ask, of course. 

A document with the points of agreement until now was signed by both parties yesterday. While a cabinet member told press a "pre-agreement" had been signed, a representative for the opposition said that was not the case, reports Reuters. Both sides are returning to Venezuela for consultation, and will meet again in the Dominican Republic on Monday, reports Efecto Cocuyo. 

Yesterday President Nicolás Maduro insisted that the document was a "pre-agreement," saying he had added personal corrections and assuring citizens that they could celebrate a full accord within three days, reports Efecto Cocoyo. The opposition insisted that only a comprehensive agreement is acceptable, and that if not the process will be scrapped, reports the Associated Press.

The fractured political opposition is aiming to ensure fair presidential elections in the Santo Domingo negotiations, as well as allow humanitarian relief for a crisis struck population and freedom for political prisoners. For its part, the government seeks to lift international sanctions against it and recognition for a supra-legislative body created last year.

Chile, another international mediator, said it was suspending its participation in talks as conditions for transparent and democratic elections have not been created, reports Efecto Cocuyo. Mexico already withdrew after the Venezuelan government last week unilaterally announced elections to be held before April 30. (See Jan 24's post.)

News Briefs

• U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres referred a long-standing border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana to the International Court of Justice, after a year of talks failed to make any progress, reports AFP. Venezuela revived a claim to a 40 percent of Guyana's territory in 2015, after Exxon-Mobil discovered oil in waters of the coast of the disputed area. Venezuela rejected the referral to the court yesterday, and said it would seek a diplomatic solution, reports the Associated Press.  

• Venezuela's government says it will launch a new crypto currency later this month, reports Bloomberg. But critics say the "petro," which would be backed by oil, is illegal, reports Reuters.

• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is starting a week long trip through Latin America, starting in Mexico and going through Argentina, Colombia, Peru and Jamaica. The State Dept. said the focus of the trip will be the Venezuela crisis. But the Washington Post notes that there's a fair number of delicate issues to deal with in Mexico -- including NAFTA renegotiations, immigration and Trump's protectionist rhetoric.

• NAFTA renegotiations have stretched into their seventh month, though Canadian, Mexican, and U.S. negotiators say they are advancing to a revamped free trade deal, reports the New York Times. The timeline has extended beyond initial plans, and could be complicated by Mexico's presidential election in July, which could bring in a government less amenable to U.S. demands.

• If former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is effectively barred from running in Brazil's presidential elections later this year, the race is up for grabs. However, he would likely win handily in a second round run-off if he is permitted to apear on the ballot, reports Reuters. A corruption conviction will likely stop him from presenting himself, leaving right-wing provocateur Jair Bolsonaro in the lead, but a Datafolha poll found he would likely lose in a second round. 

• "During the first month of 2018, Colombia’s alarming wave of attacks on human rights defenders, particularly community activists in rural areas, continued apace," reports the Washington Office on Latin America in its latest human rights update. "The alarming number of killings, security incidents, and threats involving social leaders, means that it is urgent that U.S. policymakers do their utmost to convince Colombian authorities to take bold, efficient, and constructive steps to address the security crisis facing community leaders and defenders. We will continue to see more killings unless Colombian authorities bring the perpetrators of these crimes to justice and provide effective protection to vulnerable communities."

• Peruvian legislator Keiko Fujimori expelled her younger brother Kenji from the Fuerza Popular political party, reports the BBC. The two are offspring of former President Alberto Fujimori, object of a controversial presidential pardon in December. Critics say President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski bartered the pardon in exchange for Kenji's vote against PPK's impeachment, pushed in Congress by Keiko.

• Peruvian prosecutors are seeking to investigate Grana and Montero, a major national construction company, in relation to Odebrecht bribes, reports Reuters.

• A former captain in Hondura's army said repression by security forces of protesters was part of an active plan by the armed forces. In an interview with Radio Progreso he alleged that active intelligence and counter-intelligence units responding directly to President Juan Orlando Hernández are responsible for "eliminating people" and "creating chaos" in the country. (Upside Down World has translated the interview to English.)

• Families displaced by the flooding Paraguay River in Asunción have taken refuge in military bases, reports EFE. More than 25,000 people have been left homeless.

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Latin America Daily Briefing