Mexico facing uncertainty over Trump's policies -- but won't pay for the wall (Jan. 11, 2016)

Mexico will not pay for the wall the U.S. intends to build along the border between the two countries. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to ask Congress for funding now, to be paid back by Mexico. But the issue is not one of how much the wall costs, but rather "of dignity and national sovereignty," said Mexico's newly appointed Foreign Minister, Luis Videgaray. He said he's up for discussing trade relations, but not the wall, reports the Wall Street Journal. 

Videgaray used fairly dramatic language in a speech to diplomats from around the world, saying Mexico is facing a new era of uncertainty with the U.S., according to the Washington Post. Trump's policies "could ultimately impact the lives of “millions of compatriots on both sides of the border and the destiny of future generations." (See last Thursday's and Friday's posts.)

In a television interview yesterday, Videgaray said he stands behind the decision to invite then-presidential candidate Trump to meet with President Enrique Peña Nieto in August. The meeting was widely viewed as a failure by Mexicans who said the president failed to stand up to Trump, and led to Videgaray's resignation a week later. Videgaray admitted the planning and communication could have been better, but said it was an important initial building block in a relationship with the incoming administration, reports Animal Político.

News Briefs

• Two thirds of Mexicans believe the country's police are controlled by organized crime, while 36 percent believe authorities participate in criminal activity, reports InSight Crime based on a new poll by the Chamber of Deputies' Centro de Estudios Sociales y de Opinión Pública - CESOP. And nearly a third of respondents opted for militarization as the best option for cleaning up police forces.

• Protests against gas price hikes of up to 20 percent continue to affect some areas of Mexico, reports the Los Angeles Times. Four people have been killed and more than 1,500 arrested while looting, staging road blockades and marching in protests such as the weekend demonstrations in Rosarito and along the border.  (See last Thursday's briefs.)

• The leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution promised to fight to rollback the gas hikes, reports EFE.

• Cámara de ratas: Online pranksters renamed the Mexican Chamber of Deputies to Chamber of Rats, national slang for thieves, on Google Maps. Over the weekend the presidential residence appeared as the "Official Residence of Corruption" on Google Maps before Google Mexico removed it from the map, reports Reuters. (See yesterday's and Monday's briefs on the groundswell of dissatisfaction with the Mexican government.)

• A harsh New York Times editorial criticizes Bolivian President Evo Morales' apparent intention to run for a fourth consecutive presidential term, despite losing a referendum last year which would have modified the constitution to permit him to do so. "The truth is that allowing him to stay in power would be an affront to the will of Bolivian voters and a step on the road to autocracy," argues the editorial. Though it briefly points to Morales' achievements in reducing poverty and giving voice to the long-silenced indigenous majority, it also notes that "his administration has been dogged by allegations of corruption and criticized for co-opting nominally independent institutions and cracking down on the press." Morales has argued that last year's referendum was tainted by a disinformation campaign intended to discredit him. Though the NYT scoffs at the rational, the issue of media distortion and disinformation effects on electoral outcomes is of considerable relevance to elections in the region (as in Colombia last year) and beyond.

• Trump has named Jason Greenblat, a top Trump Organization exec and Orthodox Jew, as the administration's special representative for international negotiations, a portfolio which is expected to include Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and the U.S. relationship with Cuba, reports the Miami Herald. Proponents of maintaining the détente hope it means a business interests will prevail over Cuba hardline posturing. But Cuban Jews in Miami also hopes it means an ally for the island's small Jewish community. Greenblat hasn't discussed Cuba publicly, but in the past visited the island on Trump's behalf to explore business opportunities.

• The Colombian government has unveiled an ambitious coca eradication strategy targeting 100,000 hectares with forced eradication led by state forces and voluntary substitution of coca crops. The target is significantly more than the approximately 17,600 hectares eradicated last year, and could be aimed at quieting U.S. criticisms of the peace deal with the FARC, argues InSight Crime.

• The case of a bank robbery group in the Dominican Republic, headed by a former army officer, serves as "a reminder of the dangers of corruption within security institutions," according to InSight Crime. A criminal group headed by former army Lieutenant John Percival Matos, stole more than $200,000 dollars between August and December of last year, and apparently the military training and experience was central to the success of the robberies.

• Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega was sworn in for his third term as president yesterday, along with his wife Rosario Murillo who will serve as vice president, reports the Associated Press.

• A cooperation agreement signed in December between Argentina's armed forces and U.S. Georgia state National Guard has little detail over what the two sides are committing to, writes Juan Tokatlian in Clarín. Argentine legislators must demand more information regarding the under-reported agreement, he argues, noting there are currently agreements between various U.S. national guard units and 70 countries, 23 of them under the orbit of the U.S. Southern Command.

Venezuelan legislators declare Maduro in abandonment of duties (Jan. 10, 2017)

Venezuela's opposition-controlled National Assembly declared President Nicolás Maduro in abandonment of duties by allowing the country's economic crisis to spiral out of control, explains Deutsche Welle.

The largely symbolic resolution accuses the government of violating the constitution and employing courts and military to obviate parliamentary power and calls for new elections, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Even before yesterday's vote, the Supreme Court ruled that legislators lack the authority to declare the president in so-called abandonment, notes the WSJ.

Congress appears to have given up on recall referendum efforts (see below) and instead is taking up a symbolic political trial of Maduro, as it doesn't technically have the power to remove him, reports the Associated Press. The trial was suspended last year as a gesture of goodwill at the beginning of a dialogue process between the government and the opposition.

The next round of Vatican-mediated dialogue is scheduled for Friday, but it's not clear whether the process will continue or not. Hugo Pérez Hernáiz analyzes the issue on Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights, providing the back-and-forth minutia of who said what about whom. Though not terribly clear, polling seems to suggest that popular opinion backs continuing the dialogue process.

Note: A brief yesterday said that today was the midway point of Maduro's term. In fact, today marks the two-thirds point of his six year mandate, and the point after which an ouster via popular referendum would not trigger a new election constitutionally, instead leaving his vice president to finish the term. (See last Thursday's post on the newly appointed hard-line VP, Tareck El Aissami.) On technical note, the term in question is actually the late Hugo Chávez's fourth. Maduro won a special election in April, 2013 after Chávez's death. See this Americas Society explainer for details.

News Briefs

• Many analyses of Trump's nominee for secretary of state, Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson, focus on his conflictive history with Chávez as a predictor of an even more fraught relationship with Venezuela. But Venezuelan professors Sary Levy-Carciente and María Teresa Romero argue in the Conversation that his business pragmatism could actually reduce tensions between the two countries -- unless of course Tillerson buys into the tough talk that characterizes the president-elect and doubles down on sanctions.

• Scenes of terrible savagery emerging from several prison riots in Brazil have horrified the country, and experts warn that there are already signs that the gang rivalry that spurred the violence is spilling out from the prison system into Rio de Janeiro, according to the Guardian. The piece provides a useful review of the various riots and background. It notes some of the history behind the São Paulo based PCC, the country's biggest drug mafia which was founded in 1993, a year after 111 prisoners were killed by police at the Carandiru jail. The gang fills in important state failures, and offers inmates medical assistance, legal advice and financial help for family members. It's a relevant insight into why horrific prison conditions, widely noted by experts, have fed into the gangs now struggling for dominance. (See yesterday's post.)

• The Inter-American Court of Human Rights has ordered the Brazilian government to pay $5 million in reparations to to 128 former farm workers who were enslaved on a Brazilian farm between 1988-2000. Authorities failed to take adequate steps to preventing modern slavery, according to the ruling, which is the first such decision against a country, reports the Guardian.

• Widespread protesting and looting following gas price hikes in Mexico last week -- known as el gasolinazo -- reflect a deeper social discontent with a government which promised that structural reforms would lead to economic growth, instead of the stagnation currently dominating, reports the Guardian. Discontent with the political class has also been fostered by a string of corruption scandals and fear of the impact of Trump's administration. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• Fiat Chrysler's CEO warns that the entire automotive industry has been affected by uncertainty since Trump's election, reports the Guardian. If the president-elect makes good on promises of import tariffs from Mexico, he will be forced to shut down factories, said Sergio Marchionne yesterday at the Detroit North American International Auto Show. The statements add to a growing fear that the booming car industry will fall prey to U.S. nationalist policies, reports the Wall Street Journal. Auto and auto-parts industry account for a significant portion of the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico, which could explain Trump's focus on it. However, it's also Mexico's second-biggest industry. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• Cuban entrepreneurs face uncertainty over the continuation of policies that have permitted them to gain from a flux of U.S. dollars and tourists. Trump has threatened to reverse the U.S. policy permitting increased economic engagement, and, at home, President Raúl Castro has shown little commitment to continuing the economic reforms he started six years ago, reports the Wall Street Journal. A third of Cuba’s 5 million workers are now in the private sector, including 522,000 business owners, up from 150,000 six years ago. The change stems both from Cuban reforms, and the U.S. regulatory changes that have permitted much of the funding for the new ventures to come from the U.S. (See Dec. 8's post.)

• Haiti's parliament inaugurated the year yesterday, but is two senators short after one senator elect was arrested and extradited last week, and another is accused of changing his name to avoid a 1982 conviction, reports the Miami Herald. Senator-elect Guy Philippe, a leader of the 2004 coup against President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, was arrested and extradited to the U.S. last week. (See yesterday's and Friday's briefs.)

• U.S. citizens are being evacuated by Haitian police from the Grand'Anse following attempted attacks by Philippe supporters, reports Reuters.

• Peru is a tuberculosis hotspot -- the country has the highest incidence per capita of tuberculosis in the Americas and includes virulent multi-drug resistant and extensively drug resistant strains. But it also has one of the highest cure rates, an example of the WHO's hands-on approach to ensuring patients don't abandon treatment, reports the Guardian. Local NGO Partners in Heath works with local health promoters within the community to quickly diagnose and treat patients.

Riots kill about 100 inmates in Brazil in one week (Jan. 9, 2017)

Yet another prison riot in Brazil, killed four more inmates this Sunday, bringing the total death tally over the past week to over a 100 due to gang related violence in the penitentiary system, reports Reuters. And over 140 in the past three months, notes the Wall Street Journal.

And the violence, part of a power struggle between the São Paulo-based First Capital Command (PCC) and the Rio de Janeiro-based Red Command gang, along with its ally, the Northern Family is likely to continue, reports El País. 

The bloodshed is due to the end of a two decade working relationship between the country's largest drug gangs, about six months ago. But it is also related to notoriously grim prison conditions, where horrific overcrowding and rights violations are routine. (See last Friday's and Wednesday's briefs as well as last Tuesday's post.) Experts have long pointed to the potentially explosive situation in the country's prisons, notes the New York Times.

President Michel Temer's government has refused to take responsibility for the killings, pointing to state responsibility for security and penitentiaries -- a stance lambasted by critics, reports the New York Times. (See Friday's  briefs.) 

Last week 60 inmates were killed in Manaus, and on Friday 31 were murdered in Roraima. This weekend's killings occurred in the Manaus Complexo Penitenciário Anísio Jardim, where 283 prisoners were transferred after the earlier riot in the state. The deaths call into question the authorities' attempts to separate warring gang members within the penitentiary system, according to El País.

The advance of the PCC in the country's north points to the increasing cartelization of the drug trade, according to the national attorney general's office, reports Folha de S. Paulo.

Folha de S. Paulo reports on the ramshackle conditions at the Roaima prison where Friday's murders took place, including a sort of internal shanty-town with housing walls built from disposable food containers.

Beyond the riots, last year InSight Crime reported on a 60 percent increase in prison murders, indicating the turf war between the two gangs in the country's northeast.

News Briefs

• U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's twitter bullying of car makers is threatening Mexico's automotive industry and foreign investment, at a time when the country's economy is already facing significant challenges, reports the Guardian. "...Economists and Mexican politicians have warned that Trump’s tantrums portend further economic problems as companies shy away from the public shaming that could come with investment in the country." (See last Thursday's and Friday's posts.) Last week Trump lashed out at General Motors and Toyota for Mexican production, and Ford announced that it was canceling a $1.6 billion new factory that had been criticized by him. The Mexican government responded without mentioning Trump, but rejecting "any attempt to influence the investment decisions of companies on the basis of fear or threats," reports the Guardian separately.

• All of this is coming as Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto faces widespread unrest (and significant looting) over gas price increases of up to 20 percent, and a downward spiral of unpopularity, reports the New York Times. Citizens long for a more energetic defense of Mexican interests against Trump's rhetoric, but have yet to hear it. Instead Peña Nieto promoted an advisor lauded by Trump to head the foreign ministry. (See last Thursday's post.)

• U.S. and Mexican authorities announced the arrest of a U.S. citizen suspected of shooting an American consular official in Guadalajara, reports the Guardian. He was reportedly detained in a joint operation by the FBI, DEA and Jalisco state officials in Guadalajara. The Mexican government said the suspect would be "expulsed and repatriated" to the U.S. for trial, reports the Wall Street Journal. Though the city is a stronghold of Jalisco New Generation Cartel, officials have not linked the incident to cartel activity. Though a handful of U.S. officials have been attacked in the past in Mexico, it has usually been attributed to cases of mistaken identity, according to Reuters.

• Some U.S. Republican lawmakers are questioning Colombia's much lauded peace deal with the FARC, an example of troublesome shifts in U.S. foreign policy, argue Chris Sabatini and Jimena Galindo in Latin America Goes Global. "While there is plenty to be skeptical about in the plan and in the FARC’s commitment to becoming legal, the peace deal came out of an organic process within the country that the U.S. should have no business undermining. In addition, despite the plan’s warts and a well-founded distrust of the FARC, Uribe’s vitriolic opposition is borne more out of personal pique than a constructive desire to shape a better deal—as his behavior after the popular rejection of the deal made clear," they write. (See Friday's briefs.)

• Under the terms of the peace deal and a related amnesty law passed in December, hundreds of imprisoned FARC fighters will be released and moved to concentration zones along with their demobilized companions. The Miami Herald explores what a political continuation of the revolutionary struggle could look like for some.

• French President Francois Hollande's plan to visit a demobilization camp has been criticized by opponents to the peace deal, reports Deutsche Welle.

• A well known Ecuadorian environmental NGO is struggling to survive a government shutdown attempt in the wake of violence between soldiers, police and indigenous Shuar people opposed to a Chinese-run copper development, reports the Guardian. U.N. rights experts have condemned the onslaught against the organization, which is accused of supporting violence by the Shuar against security forces. (See last Wednesday's briefs.)

• Artisanal charcoal produced on Cuban worker-owned cooperatives will become the island's first legal export to the U.S. in decades, reports the Associated Press. The first shipment is due to be delivered two days before Trump, who has threatened to reverse the regulation changes that have permitted the deal, takes office. The charcoal is being bought by a company founded by attorney Scott Gilbert, the former lawyer for imprisoned US government contractor Alan Gross.

• A chant shouted by marching troops at a Cuban military parade a "a hat out of bullets to the head," reports the Miami Herald.

• The operation to capture senator-elect Guy Phillipe, who last week was extradited to the U.S. where he faces charges of drug trafficking and money laundering, involved infiltrating the security detail of a man who has successfully avoided detention for years, reports the Miami Herald. The Daily Beast has a colorful story on the coup leader turned politician. (See Friday's briefs.)

• Venezuela's government announced the fifth increase in the minimum wage in the past year. The fifty percent hike aims to help workers keep abreast of the world's highest inflation rate, reports Reuters. 
• The U.S. embassy in Caracas will no longer accept Venezuela's crumbling currency, visa applicants will have to pay in U.S. dollars, reports the Miami Herald.

• Tomorrow marks the official midway point of President Nicolás Maduro's term -- efforts to oust him needed to succeed before in order to trigger a new election, notes the Associated Press. A recall referendum could still occur, but if successful, would replace Maduro with his newly named vice president. (See last Thursday's post.)

• A Taiwanese diplomatic offensive aims to keep Central American allies from cozying up to China, reports the Financial Times. (See Dec. 13's post.)

• Chilean senator Alejandro Guillier will be the center-left Radical Party's candidate for president in the November election in which he will face off against center-right ex-president Sebastian Pinera, reports Reuters. The former journalist and anti-establishment candidate promised to deepen education reforms and tackle the polemic private pension system. Though relatively unknown up to a year ago, he is now a favorite in polls and could the center-left ruling coalition New Majority's candidate.

• A New York Times feature piece focuses on Brazil's ranching culture which exemplifies the country's shift towards a socially conservative right.

Mexico won't pay for the wall just yet (Jan. 6, 2017)

The U.S. Congress, not Mexico, will be asked to fund the construction of a border wall separating the two countries, reports CNN. The wall, to be paid for by Mexico which opposes the policy, was a major campaign promise of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump. But he defended the change in tack in a morning tweet, saying this route would be faster and promising the money would be paid back by Mexico.

The transition team is already looking at locations for the first phases of the "Great Wall," and the effort will likely use legislation signed by George W. Bush authorizing the construction of a "physical barrier" on the southern border, reports the New York Times.

But U.S. policies could definitely batter Mexico's economy. Yesterday, Trump threatened to slap a "big border tax" on Japanese car manufacturer Toyota if the company follows through on plans to expand production in Mexico of vehicles destined for the U.S. market, reports the Guardian. 

It promises to be a tough year for Mexican leadership, amid national fears over the economic impact of Trump's policies, reports the New York Times. (See yesterday's post on the potential impact of Trump's threats on the Mexican economy, specifically the car manufacturing sector.)

News Briefs

• Trump's policies -- especially those rejecting free trade -- seem likely to preclude a closer relationship between the U.S. and the new market-friendly governments in the region. This coupled with economic and political crisis in Brazil, an unpopular government in Mexico, increasingly weakened democratic institutions in the region's remaining leftist governments and ever increasing violence in Central America paint a grim picture for the next year, according to Eric Hershberg and Fulton Armstrong on the Aula Blog. "Insofar as Washington changes gears and Latin Americans throw up their hands in dismay, the region will be thrust into the dilemma of trying to adjust yet again or to set off on its own course as ALBA and others have long espoused."

• The old U.S. policy on Cuba was an irritant to relations with the region, wrote outgoing U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in a memo likely directed at the incoming administration, which has threatened to roll-back détente with the Communist governed island, reports McClatchy DC. Ties must be deepened in order to truly help Cubans and U.S. interests, he argued.

• On the issue of upcoming U.S. policy towards the region, Honduras could be considered both the coal mine and the canary, writes Greg Gandin in The Nation. Observers should keep a close eye on whether Trump allows a military cooperation deal between Honduras and Israel to go through despite human rights concerns. (See Dec. 15's briefs.)

• U.S. international drug policy -- both the funding it provides Latin American countries for battling trafficking and sanctions for failing to try to reduce production -- is a significant factor in fueling drug wars around the region. The The Western Hemisphere Drug Policy Commission, signed into law last month, "will assess the success of US drug policies in Latin America in reducing the supply and abuse of drugs, and the damages associated with illicit drug markets. It will evaluate alternative policy models and make reform recommendations," explains Luis Gómez Romero in the Conversation. This could potentially usher in a sea change for a region increasingly aware of the futile policies of the drug war and the hypocrisy of the demands to continue it from the U.S., where marijuana is increasingly legal and over 9 percent of the population uses illicit drugs, he writes. (See Dec. 12's briefs on the Commission's mandate.)

• U.S. lawmakers could demand changes to the Colombia-FARC peace deal before approving U.S. funds to support the process, according to the Washington Times.

• Four U.N. monitors, designated to oversee the FARC disarmament process, were fired after a video showing them dancing with fighters at a party caused controversy, reports the AFP.

• Protests and looting over gas price increases continued yesterday in Mexico, leading to four deaths, the ransacking of at least 300 stores and the arrests of more than 700 people, reports the Associated Press. Animal Político reports over 980 arrests and five injured. And family members are denouncing irregularities in the detentions, reports Animal Político separately. Arrests included four state police officers who were caught on video putting looted items in their patrol vehicles reports the Wall Street Journal. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• At least 33 inmates were killed in a Brazilian prison riot this morning, just days after fighting at another jail killed 56 inmates, reports Reuters. The fighting in Roraima state has been blamed on the São Paulo-based First Capital Command (PCC) drug gang by one official. The riot earlier this week largely involved killing of PCC members by the North Family gang, allied with the powerful Rio de Janeiro-based Red Command drug gang. The killings were particularly brutal, some of those killed were decapitated, dismembered or had their hearts torn out, reports the New York Times. The Boa Vista prison was built for 700 inmates but currently holds about 1,400. (See Tuesday's post and Wednesday's briefs.)

• El Salvador's government is touting a reduction in the country's sky-high homicide rate last year as a sign of success for it's violent gang crackdown. Nonetheless the 2016 rate of 81 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants -- still well within the U.N.'s definition of violence epidemic. And the official message of violence against gang members "is only aggravating and protracting problems of social coexistence that have dragged on for decades," writes El Faro journalist Roberto Valencia in a New York Times Español op-ed. The current government's policies may have some measure of popular support, but have resulted in widespread human rights abuses, including hundreds of cases of alleged extrajudicial killings by security forces. "In the most violent society in the world, tweeting 'death to gang members' or 'we got what we wanted' on the day a prison riot leaves 14 gang members dead, gets votes. On the other hand, it's political -- and social -- suicide to demand that police respect human rights, propose improvements in jails tending towards rehabilitation, or suggest solutions to the problem that include direct and above board dialogue with gang members," writes Valencia.

• The new head of Venezuela's opposition-led National Assembly called on the armed forces to back the political opposition against President Nicolás Maduro in his inaugural speech yesterday, reports TeleSur. Julio Borges also used the occasion to demand new elections. The government responded that the National Assembly was in contempt of the law, reports Reuters. 

• Most of Costa Rica's electric energy was produced with renewable sources last year, including large hydropower facilities reports the Independent. However, the 98.1 percent refers only to electricity usage -- about 70 percent of the country's other energy needs are met with oil. And although hydropower is cleaner than non-renewable sources, dependence on dams carries its own costs, notes the Guardian.

• Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht signed the largest anti-corruption settlement in history last month, but finds itself banned from bidding on public projects in an increasing amount of Latin American countries as investigations into its corrupt practices multiply, reports the Wall Street Journal. (See Dec 22's briefs on the settlement.)

• Odebrecht reached an agreement with the Peruvian government yesterday to pay $8.9 million and give information regarding bribes to officials, reports Reuters. The payment is just to start talks though, and shouldn't be considered a final amount, said officials.

• Brazilian President Michel Temer isn't letting his unpopularity (and lack of electoral mandate) get in the way of governing. In fact, he boasts that he's taking advantage of his low approval ratings to push through unpopular austerity measures, many of which "will harm Brazil’s poorest and most vulnerable citizens for decades to come", writes Vanesa Barbara in a New York Times op-ed.

• Argentina's government plans to debate lowering the age of criminal responsibility, reports Ámbito Financiero. Trying 14-year-olds as adults is a perennial regional debate popular among voters concerned by insecurity but is questioned on issues of rights and effectivity. The initiative is unconstitutional, but also would do little to reduce violent crime, marks Página 12, noting statistics for the city of Buenos Aires, where most detained minors are charged with unarmed robbery.

• Guy Phillipe, Haitian senator-elect and a leader of a 2004 coup, was extradited to the United States yesterday, where he is wanted for alleged drug trafficking and money laundering, reports Reuters. He was due to swear in on Monday, which would have afforded him some level of immunity. He was arrested leaving a radio station and shots were fired in the process, reports the Miami Herald. Phillipe has successfully eluded detention both in Haiti and in the U.S., where he has been wanted since 2005 on charges of conspiring to smuggle cocaine and money laundering. Human Rights Watch has accused him of overseeing extrajudicial killings in the aftermath of the 2004 ouster of Aristede. (See briefs for Oct. 20, 2016.)

Key cabinet shuffles in Venezuela and Mexico (Jan. 5, 2017)

Maduro names hardliner VP

In a cabinet reshuffle yesterday Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appointed former interior minister Tareck El Aissami as his vice president. The post is particularly significant this year due to opposition efforts to oust Maduro, which could leave the youthful El Aissami in charge of the country until the next election scheduled for 2019, reports Deutsche Welle.

If the opposition succeeds in holding a recall referendum, polls indicate it's likely Maduro will lost his post. But constitutionally he would be replaced by his vice president for the rest of his mandate. (The opposition had been angling to hold the referendum last year, which would have triggered a new national election.) The appointment is considered a form of protection against his potential ouster, according to Efecto Cocuyo. 

El Aissame is viewed as a ruling-party hardliner and one of the administration's younger stars, reports the Miami Herald. He served as interior minister under Hugo Chávez, and currently holds the post of state governor of Aragua. Efecto Cocuyo has a bio. 

El Aissame replaces Aristobulo Isturiz, who served as intermediary with the opposition-led National Assembly, notes Reuters.

He is also one of the country's senior officials under investigation by U.S. federal prosecutors for allegedly aiding drug shipments from Venezuela, according to a Wall Street Journal report from 2015. Maduro has previously promoted officials accused by the U.S. to top posts.

Maduro also named Ramón Lobo, a low-ranking lawmaker from the western Merida state his sixth new economy minister in three years yesterday, reports the Wall Street Journal. Lobo has previously advocated weakening the currency and price controls that many blame for the country's economic meltdown. He will also hold the post of finance minister, making him the country's top economic authority, according to Reuters.

Nelson Martínez, head of Venezuela’s oil refineries in the U.S., will lead the oil ministry, while the former oil minister Eulogio del Pino will head Pdvsa. The economic and oil changes are a bid to avoid worsening hyperinflation, according the Financial Times, which reports on a quietly issued $5 billion in bonds to finance food and medicine imports.

Efecto Cocuyo lists several other new appointments announced yesterday. About a third of his cabinet currently comes from the military, according to Control Ciudadano.

Venezuela aside: Still no sign of the new bills that would replace the 100 bolivar note, reports Efecto Cocuyo. (See Dec. 19's post.)

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Mexican advisor lauded by Trump to head foreign ministry

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto named a close advisor who played a key role in organizing a campaign visit with Donald Trump to head the foreign ministry, reports the Wall Street Journal. Luis Videgaray, a former finance minister, resigned a week after the August meeting, in which Peña Nieto's failure to stand up to the then-candidate provoked widespread anger. (See post for Sept. 8, 2016.)

Videgaray has been charged with starting a close relationship with the new U.S. administration -- no easy task considering Trump's inflammatory campaign promises such as building a wall between the two countries (and making Mexico pay for it), tearing up NAFTA and deporting millions of migrants. (See post for Nov. 9, 2016, for example.)

But he has been praised by Trump, who tweeted after his Sept. resignation that "with Luis, Mexico and the U.S. would have made wonderful deals together—where both Mexico and the U.S. would have benefited.”

The appointment is a reversal of fortunes for a key Peña Nieto advisor, who has been called the brains behind the throne, notes the Financial Times. Until the disastrous visit he was a power player in the administration and was considered a contender for next year's presidential election, reports the New York Times. In light of Trump's win, the visit seems less misguided, however, and there have been rumors of Videgaray's return.

One of the country's leading economists, Videgaray spearheaded Peña Nieto's economic reforms and has a good relationship with the Trump transition team. However others criticize that his appointment makes Mexico appear weak, that there will be no penalty for Trump's bashing during the campaign, reports the Washington Post.

Concerns over the bilateral relationship were further fanned by Ford Motor Co.'s announcement this week that it was canceling a planned $1.6 billion investment in a new assembly plant in Mexico, and instead will invest $700 million in a new plant in Michigan. The decision further devalued the Mexican peso against the dollar (prompting Central Bank intervention to raise it back up) and raised concerns that protectionist U.S. policies could hurt Mexico's manufacturing sector, according to the WSJ. Some analysts fear the decision could have a domino effect on other businesses, reports Animal Político.

Trump made NAFTA bashing a central issue of his campaign, arguing that Mexico's economy won at the expense of U.S. workers. But Mexicans increasingly feel that as a development strategy the free trade agreement fell very short, reports the New York Times. The poverty rate has remained the same since before NAFTA was implemented, and wages have stagnated for over a decade, despite enormous investment in the country. But the failure is more of the Mexican government than the agreement, argue some experts. Nonetheless, despite negative consequences to Mexican agriculture and a national dependence on U.S. imports, most Mexican authorities want to keep the treaty and say undoing it would be disastrous for both countries.

The Financial Times paints a far rosier picture of NAFTA's benefits for Mexico, which include permitting the country to become the world’s seventh largest car manufacturer and fourth-largest exporter. A success story that is of course threatened by Trump's stance on U.S. companies investing in Mexico.

News Briefs

• Protests over gas price hikes of up to 20 percent in Mexico turned into looting yesterday, reports Reuters. (See yesterday's briefs.) Dozens of stores were looted, and 170 were blockaded yesterday, reports the Associated Press. One police officer was killed, and five more injured yesterday, and the government announced the intervention of the federal police in affected areas, reports Animal Político. Nonetheless, Peña Nieto defended the reforms that resulted in the increases yesterday, arguing that "if this decision had not been taken, the effects and consequences would have been far more painful," and that the reforms are aimed at protecting family economies, reports Animal Político.

• Grand infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars were contracted to Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht by the Venezuelan government. But most remain frozen, another symptom of the corrupt practices that led the company to sign a massive plea deal with U.S., Brazilian, and Swiss authorities last month, reports the Wall Street Journal. (See Dec. 22's briefs.)

• Over a hundred inmates remain at large after a prison riot in Brazil left 56 dead and permitted 184 to escape, reports the Wall Street Journal. (See Tuesday's post.)

• Yesterday President Michel Temer said the federal government wasn't asked for help in controlling the riot in a privately run prison. But he said that state governments should seek reinforcement from federal forces in such situations, reports Reuters. He promised a new national security plan featuring a more prominent role for federal authorities on security issues. Currently policing and prison administration are largely state responsibilities.

• A government order of food worth $400,000 for Brazilian President Michel Temer's 2017 plane trips -- a budget than included 500 cartons of Haagen-Dazs ice cream and nearly 1.5 tons of chocolate cake -- and it's subsequent cancellation amid public outrage, demonstrates the tone deaf nature of the Temer administration, reports the Associated Press. His approval rating is at about 10 percent and the misstep is particularly problematic in light of his austerity policies. Let them eat cake ... 400 kilos of Strawberry and fruit cake, that is. A separate Associated Press piece has more highlights from the list, including 500 truffles. 

• A new investigation by Repórter Brazil, a civil society organization, found that monitoring systems at so-called sustainable coffee plantations failed to spot serious labor violations, reports the Guardian.

• Heading into a reelection campaign, Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández announced this week that key cabinet ministers will be leaving the administration, including defense, health, and infrastructure and public services. He did not announce replacements, but emphasized that they were in order to free up the politicians in question to devote themselves to political activity, reports EFE.

• Former President Sebastian Pinera and independent center-left Senator Alejandro Guillier are leading polls for Chile's presidential election in November, reports Reuters.

Haiti's long election process finally over (Jan. 4, 2017)

News Briefs

• Haitian businessman Jovenel Moïse was confirmed the winner of the country's November election yesterday, after an Provisional Electoral Council dismissed accusations of massive fraud by supporters of other candidates, reports Reuters. Moïse officially obtained 55.6 percent of the vote, far outdistancing the second place candidate, Jude Célestin who obtained 19.57. Judges did find evidence of irregularities, but not enough to affect the final outcome of the vote, notes the Miami Herald. The declaration of a winner comes more than a year after the initial election in Oct. 2015, which was scrapped due to widespread irregularities. Moïse was the official winner of that election as well. Haiti has been governed by an interim government since last February. Some supporters of losing candidates led protests after the decision yesterday, but were overtaken by Moïse supporters in Port-au-Prince, reports the Associated Press.

• Brazil's jails are notoriously overcrowded, and form part of a "parallel state" controlled by drug gangs -- some of the context that helps explain how at least 56 people were slaughtered this week in a Manaus prison riot, explain Robert Muggah and Ilona Szabó de Carvalho in a New York Times op-ed. "There are an estimated 656,000 incarcerated people in state prisons, where there is officially space for less than 400,000. Yet roughly 3,000 new inmates are added to overcrowded penitentiaries each month. The prison population has increased by more than 160 percent since 2000," they write. And the leading cause of imprisonment is minor drug offenses. "The government urgently needs to regain control of public security, and the prison system in particular. Rather than imposing more draconian laws and building new prisons, Brazil needs to enforce existing legislation — including ensuring that suspects are provided hearings within 24 hours of their arrest and expanding the network of public defenders. This is not just about ensuring the humane treatment of inmates. Strategies to decriminalize drugs, ensure proportional sentencing and provide rehabilitation for offenders are vastly more cost-effective than putting nonviolent offenders in jail and throwing away the key." (See yesterday's post.)

• Shadowy right-wing militias are blamed for a wave of killings affecting left-wing activists, indigenous leaders, and human rights advocates in the Colombian countryside. At least 58 community supporting the peace process with the FARC were killed over the past year, and many fear the homicides could affect the recently passed peace pact's chance of sucess, reports the Washington Post. The deaths come as FARC fighters must begin to demobilize, but sow doubts as to the government's ability to protect them. (See briefs for Dec. 1, 2016.)

• Tens of thousands of Venezuelans are migrating to Colombia and Brazil, pouring across the border to towns ill prepared to receive them, reports the Washington Post. Services are swamped, and locals complain they can't compete with Venezuelans looking for informal employment. And neighbors fear that Venezuela could move farther towards a humanitarian crisis, pushing even more people to migrate. (See yesterday's post.)

• Latin Americans have a long list of demands for the newly sworn in U.N. Secretary General, António Gutterez, argues Raul Salgado Espinoza in the Conversation. Critical issues include tackling economic inequality, sustainable development, and the homicide epidemic afflicting several of the region's cities and countries. But also the reform of U.N. institutions, such as the nomination and selection process of the secretary general and the expansion of the Security Council.

• A group of U.N. experts condemned the Ecuadorian government for cracking down on a land rights advocacy group that supports an indigenous community protesting mining plans in land they claim as their ancestral home, reports Reuters.

• Ecuador kicked off its presidential race this week. President Rafael Correa's handpicked successor is leading in the polls. But it will be tough for Lenín Moreno to win outright in the first round of voting in February, and an opposition alliance would likely defeat him in a run-off, reports the Miami Herald. Experts are watching to see whether Ecuador continues the region's rightward swing.

• On the issue of the rightward swing -- the Latin American left must reinvent itself if it is to rise above a wave of discontent and rejection of political elites affecting the population, argue Guillermo Marín and Rodrigo Muñóz in Nueva Sociedad.

• Benign neglect might be the best bet for Latin America in the Trump era, argues Guardian correspondent Jonathan Watts. Though the region definitely swung to the right last year, those new governments -- including Argentina's Mauricio Macri, Brazil's Michel Temer, and Peru's Pedro Pablo Kuczynski -- support free trade agreements of the type rejected by the U.S. president-elect. "In an age of uncertainty, anti-globalisation movements, internet rumours, fake news and shifting political sands, it will be tough for Latin America to avoid being sucked into bigger conflicts. But its relative isolation, modest importance to the global economy and weak strategic importance could all prove a blessing if hostilities erupt over the share of the global spoils elsewhere."

• Mexicans generally oppose the wall U.S. president-elect Donald Trump has promised to build along the two countries' shared border. But in Ciudad Juárez, where extensive fencing was actually built between 2007 and 2010, residents have a more nuanced vision of the benefits and hazards of the division, reports the Associated Press. On the one hand, it's diverted trafficking (human and drugs) to more remote locations, on the other, it's created a whole new crime scene as thwarted drug dealers peddle their wares locally.

• Animal Político has a report denouncing that the Peña Nieto administration does not release the numbers of civilians killed by the military. 

• Protesters have blockaded fuel storage terminals in Mexico due to gas price increases, leading to distribution problems in several states, reports Reuters. A couple of dozen blockades snarled traffic around the country, where people spend considerable portions of their income on gas, reports the Los Angeles Times. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• Honoring the maternal line: a couple in Mexico's Nuevo León state obtained an injunction allowing them to register their baby with both their maternal surnames, rather than the traditional paternal ones, reports the Associated Press.

• A last-ditch plan to save Mexico's endangered vaquita porpoise could employ U.S. Navy trained dolphins to locate the elusive species, which would then be held in a safe bay to breed in protection from illegal fishing which has decimated its population, reports the Associated Press.

Venezuela facing tough 2017 (Jan. 3, 2017)

Last year began in Venezuela with upheaval over an opposition dominated Congress, and the potential for disruption it presented to the Chavista government. But over the course of 2016 hope for a democratic transition from a wildly unpopular government has faded.

David Smilde at Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights paints a graphic picture of the potential instability of the upcoming year. "Not only did 2016 see an excruciating economic contraction leading to scarcities of food and medicines, lootings and unnecessary hunger and death, it was also the year that Venezuela moved from electoral authoritarianism to unhyphenated authoritarianism. This means that 2017 will see more of the same but with even less hope for positive change because of the lack of a credible electoral solution. This is not to say the situation is stable. To the contrary, it is fragile, combustible and could spin out of control at any time–perhaps for better but more likely for worse."

A New York Times photo essay chronicles violence in the country, where last year nearly 28,500 people were killed, the deadliest year on record.

Though Vatican mediated talks between the government and the political opposition have largely stalled, authorities released former presidential candidate, Manuel Rosales and student five activists detained since 2014 on New Years Eve, reports the BBC. Release of about 100 political prisoners is a key opposition demand, and leaders say they will not attend the next round of talks on Jan. 13 if it's not met, reports the Associated Press.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of State could mean even tenser relations with Venezuela, writes Timothy M. Gill in a Washington Post Monkey Cage piece. ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson clashed repeatedly and bitterly with late President Hugo Chávez, who seized Exxon facilities in 2007. "Given Tillerson’s background at ExxonMobil, we can expect the Trump administration to take an aggressive stance toward Venezuela. This may include sanctions on more Venezuelan state officials and even an end to high-level diplomatic meetings. Expect more friction over the next few years." (See briefs for Dec. 14, 2016.)

December's 100 bolivar note withdrawal upheaval was particularly pronounced in Ciudad Bolivar, where looting and destruction of shops was widespread and violent. The events show the weakness of the state in southern Venezuela, where organized crime related to illicit mining control Bolivar state, argues Albor Rodríguez in a New York Times Español op-ed. The illegal economy that dominates in the area will be particularly hit by the move to withdraw the 100 bolivar note, and the scope of the destruction may have, in part, been aimed at pushing the government to postpone the initial deadline, he writes. (See post for Dec. 19, 2016.)

A harrowing Christmas story in the New York Times highlighting how hunger is taking lives in Venezuela, as food shortages are exacerbated by lack of medical supplies and impacting an increasingly strained population.

And an Associated Press investigation found that Venezuela's military is profiting from food shortages after being put in charge of distribution last year. "With much of the country on the verge of starvation and billions of dollars at stake, food trafficking has become one of the biggest businesses in Venezuela, the AP found. And from generals to foot soldiers, the military is at the heart of the graft, according to documents and interviews with more than 60 officials, business owners and workers, including five former generals. As a result, food is not reaching those who most need it."

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Deadly gang related prison riot in Manaus

A prison riot in Brazil left at least 56 people dead between Sunday and Monday. The episode in Manaus was particularly bloody, featuring decapitated bodies being flung over the walls of the penitentiary, reports the New York Times. The 17 hour riot is part of a wider battle in the city, the largest in the Amazon Basin, between two gangs seeking to control the area's cocaine trade. Authorities say the vast majority of the deaths were committed by the Familia do Norte gang, which operates from Manaus prisons, and targeted members of the larger First Capital Command (PCC) with roots in São Paulo's prisons. The Manaus gang is believed to be working at the behest of the Rio de Janeiro based Red Command (CV).

A November WOLA report on Brazilian prisons noted increased potential for violence in the penitentiary system following the end of a long alliance between the PCC and the CV, reports Reuters. And InSight Crime's 2016 GameChangers report notes the shifting paradigm of criminality as the two gangs battle for dominance.

Overcrowding and horrific conditions in Brazilian prisons often lead to rioting, notes Reuters. The WOLA report notes that "rebellions due to over-crowding and inhumane conditions have been frequent throughout the country and have resulted in torture, beheadings, and assassinations." (See briefs for Nov. 23, 2016.)

News Briefs

• The biggest criminal threat in the region for 2017 is the increasing consumption of illicit drugs, "which is  giving birth to a new mutation in organized crime. While the big cartels were born from the cocaine trade, the new generation of criminal syndicates increasingly have their roots in domestic drug consumption and distribution. Many start as street gangs and end up getting subcontracted by transnational organized crime. They quickly learn new skills sets, which they combine with their territorial control and disposition towards extreme violence. The most able ascend the criminal ladder and make the leap into transnational organized crime," explains InSight Crime in its GameChangers 2016 report, which reviews Mexico's failed drug war, struggles against entrenched corruption among political elites in several countries and Venezuela's Cartel of the Suns. The report is also critical of the continued use of militarized security strategies in the country, despite mounting evidence of human rights abuses and limited efficacy.

• A vast surge in migration from Central America to the U.S. points to a failure of Obama policies to stop the flow through an increase in immigration enforcement and humanitarian assistance, reports the Miami Herald.

• Murders in El Salvador dropped by a fifth in the past year, a success authorities attribute to anti-gang policies, reports Reuters.

• Last year was one of institutional upheaval in Brazil -- such that celebrated and reclusive author Raduan Nassar broke years of media silence to denounce the persecution of Workers' Party leaders. Carol Pires interviewed Nassar for a New York Times Español op-ed, and contrasts his new openness with President Michel Temer's closed approach to government. The piece notes the corrosive effect of ramming austerity measures through Congress and calls for more open debate within society over what policies to implement.

• Even violence weary cariocas were stunned by the telenovela worthy murder of the Greek ambassador to Brazil by a police officer having an affair with his wife, reports the New York Times. The killing adds scrutiny to Rio's police forces, which are accused of extrajudicial killings and torture. Amnesty International's Rio chapter estimates police were responsible for one of every five slayings in the state in 2015. (See briefs for July 29, 2016 for more data on police violence in Rio.)

• Peru is demanding cash from Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht before beginning talks for a plea deal with the company to obtain the names of officials who were bribed with an accumulated $29 million over three separate presidencies, reports Reuters. (See Dec. 22's briefs.)

• Mexicans were outraged by a 20 percent increase in gas prices on Jan. 1, part of the government's decision to deregulate prices, reports the Washington Post.

• The US Export-Import Bank, an obscure government agency, has quietly given Pemex more than $8.5 billion in loans during the Obama administration, despite the Mexican oil companies poor safety record in those years, according to a Guardian report that says the loans run counter to the president's climate change goals.

• Mexico was the deadliest country in the world for Catholic priests in 2016, reports InSight Crime. Three priests were murdered last year, and 61 attacks against church members occurred between 1990 and 2016.

• Financial Times profiles Mexican maverick politician Andrés Manuel López Obrador, comparing "Amlo" to Trump: "a love-him or loathe-him figure with a message that resonates with the underprivileged and the angry."

• Argentine authorities are considering treatment for drug addiction as an alternative to incarceration for people accused of minor crimes, reports InSight Crime.

• Argentina's highest criminal appeals court reopened a case against former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and members of her government accusing them of seeking to cover up Iranian officials' role in a 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires, reports the New York Times. The case was dismissed in three separate instances last year, but judges last week took the rare step of reopening it. (See the post for May 14, 2015 on the Nisman case.)

• Primitive sanitation systems in Haiti contribute to the persistence of cholera in the country, reports the Associated Press.

• The final leader of Uruguay's last military dictatorship, General Gregorio Alvarez died last week in Montevideo, reports the Associated Press.

• Cuba marked the anniversary of is revolution with a show of military strength, reports Reuters.

• Amid uncertainty over the future of U.S.-Cuba détente, research facilities from both countries are advancing with plans to make a joint coral greenhouse and coral nursery, reports the Miami Herald.

• Encouraging men to take on more unpaid care work is critical in enlisting their help in ending violence against women, according to Promundo, an NGO that engages men and boys in ending violence against women and girls. In Brazil the group runs a companion project to Bolsa Familia, which trained public sector staff to discuss gender equality and the importance of sharing care work when administering grants, reports the Guardian.