Colombian negotiators miss peace deadline, daunting post-conflict scenario (March 24, 2016)

Colombian government and FARC rebel negotiators failed to reach a final peace accord by yesterday, missing a deadline set six months ago. (See post for Sept. 24, 2015.)

They say substantial differences still exist and more time is needed to conclude the talks, reports the Associated Press.

Colombia's chief negotiator Humberto de la Calle said the country was not interested in signing a deal at any cost or one that could not be maintained, reports the Miami Herald.

The FARC negotiators in a separate statement that they had proposed a "roadmap" to finalize an agreement and reiterated the guerrillas' commitment to see the talks through, reports the Guardian.

The peace negotiators have managed to reach full or partial agreement on many – but not all – of the key agenda items set out for the talks, including land reform, political participation by former rebels, an end to drug trafficking by the group, and transitional justice.  However, the disarmament and reintegration process of nearly 7,000 FARC fighters into Colombian society still remains in question, explains the Cipher Brief.

It had long been understood that a final peace accord would not be reached by yesterday, notes WOLA's Adam Isacson. A smaller, but still momentous "bilateral cease-fire" was expected, with the possibility of an enormously symbolic photo op with Obama at the end of his Cuba trip.

The issue of "concentration zones," where about 18,000 FARC fighters, supporters and relatives will gather to disarm, is a big point of contention at this point, according to WOLA's analysis.

A major stumbling block continues to be mutual mistrust between the two sides, as demonstrated by a disagreement last month over a FARC political act in the town of Conejo, near the Venezuelan border. (See Feb. 26's post.) The scandal provoked by the images of FARC leaders lobbying for peace while surrounded by armed guerrillas has brought to the fore the issue of where demobilized fighters will be located, notes Silla Vacía.

The camps would ideally be as isolated as possible from the government perspective, explains Silla Vacia. The government aims at a short term stay in the camps for fighters to reintegrate into civilian lifestyles. In the meantime, fighters would be prohibited from leaving.

But the FARC envisions staying in territories they currently control, where they can fulfill sentences for crimes committed and transition their group into a legal political party. They foresee a far longer disarmament process and see the concentration zones as areas in which they can five to eight-year "restriction of liberty" penalties for human rights crimes.

The emphasis on remaining in these territories speaks to commitment to protecting them, as well as a sense that the demobilized fighters will also be safer there, reports Silla Vacía based on interviews with rebel negotiators.
Guerrillas want to maintain their territorial base in towns where they have held influence for decades, while the government wants the zones to be as unpopulated as possible.

Both sides are also increasingly concerned about guaranteeing guerrilla safety from paramilitary forces after demobilization, notes WOLA.

The two sides must also still agree on a referendum mechanism for the agreement, how the peace tribunals will be put together and a precise disarmament schedule, according to Silla Vacía.

The rebels want the terms of a peace deal incorporated into a new constitution, while the government favors a simple vote by the public, reports the Los Angles Times.

The negotiations will likely take a few more months, reports El País, though FARC negotiators say good news will come. Silla Vacía also reports that a final agreement could still be months away. 

Yet, once that occurs, the challenges ahead will be momentous. The agreement's "significance will be quickly overshadowed by the gargantuan security, economic, and political tasks of the post-war era that will stretch—and perhaps exceed—the capacity of the Colombian state in coming years," writes Cynthia J. Arnson of the Woodrow Wilson Center for the Cipher Brief.

A post-conflict scenario still wouldn't mean peace everywhere. Earlier this week the U.N. warned about a possible surge in violence by paramilitary successor groups if the FARC demobilizes following a peace accord with the Colombian government, according to Colombia Reports.

Nearly 90 municipalities will be at extreme risk for violence after a FARC demobilization, and will require rapid state intervention to prevent criminal power vacuums, according to the Foundation for Peace and Reconciliation (PARES). This risk is highest along the impoverished Pacific coast, the Antioquia department that has a long history of paramilitary violence, and the south of the Bolivar department, which has long been disputed territory because of its strategic location for drug trafficking, according to Colombia Reports.

"The Colombian government has yet to announce a strategy against organized crime for the post-war era, but already the debate lines are being drawn, between those who see an active role for the army, marines, navy, and air force, and those who see the effort as principally one for the National Police," notes Arnson.

Nonetheless progress has been made since the historic Sept. handshake between President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leader Rodrigo "Timochenko" Londoño, notes Colombia Reports. Then the two sides made major strides and had already agreed on victims, rural reform, political inclusion of the FARC and the rebels' abandoning of the drug trade.

Since then, advances have included the creation of a specialized unit to locate "disappeared" people and the creation of a U.N. mission to oversee disarmament once an agreement is reached. (See Jan 19's and Jan. 26's posts.)  
Earlier this week FARC leaders welcomed the backing of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry who met with them in Havana, another historic moment for a group more known for protesting imperial policy in Latin America, notes Colombia Reports. (See Tuesday's and Wednesday's briefs.)

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Carnal Relations 2.0?

U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Buenos Aires wrought traffic havoc around the city, but also showcased a new warmth between Argentina and the U.S. Obama is the first U.S. president to hold high level talks with an Argentine leader in 20 years, reports the New York Times.

He took it a few (tango) steps forward on the dance-floor at a state dinner last night, and toasting "a new beginning," reports the Miami Herald.

This visit was intended as an example of efforts to improve U.S. standing in the region, and to give warm support to Macri's push to take the country in an investor friendly direction. (See yesterday's post.)

The visit coincides with the 40th anniversary of the 1976 military coup that ushered in a period of brutal repression, and left as many as 30,000 "disappeared." Obama promised to declassify secret military and intelligence documents that could shed light on the atrocities of that era.

Closing out his South America trip, Obama plans to use his visit to Remembrance Park in Buenos Aires to lay the groundwork for the U.S. to come clean about any involvement, notes the Associated Press.

"We are absolutely determined to do our part as Argentina continues to heal and move forward as one nation," Obama said. "I hope this gesture also helps to rebuild trust that may have been lost between our two countries — and that's a principal message that I have not only for Argentina but for the entire hemisphere."

But human rights are not merely history, write Gastón Chillier and Ernesto Semán in a scathing New York Times op-ed, that calls out Obama's endorsement of Macri in light of questionable practices in his first 100 days in office.

They draw special attention to the case of social activist Milagro Sala, who was detained for leading a social protest in northern Jujuy province, and remains in detention while being investigated for alleged embezzlement. They point to other worrisome policies, such as permitting security forces to shoot down unidentified planes suspecting of drug trafficking (they call it "a de facto death penalty without trial"); a recent court ruling that police officers could demand identification from citizens there without probable cause; and a new protocol for policing protests that gives the authorities more power to put down and criminalize demonstrations. (See Feb. 19's post.)

Chillier and Semán also call out Macri's use of executive orders to change a media law aimed at curbing monopolies and his "fixation on promoting free-market orthodoxies."

"A presidential visit to Argentina that neglects to notice how Mr. Macri’s government is undermining human rights and democratic institutions — and instead pours empty praise on his policies — will rightly be read as a return to the bad old days," they conclude.

News Briefs

• Keiko Fujimori remains in the running for Peru's presidential election. This morning the electoral board ruled out vote-buying allegations against her, reports the Associated Press. (See March 16's post, and Tuesday's and yesterday's briefs.)

• Haiti's political process continues to get increasingly bogged down. On Sunday lawmakers rejected the general policy objectives of a seasoned economist named prime minister of a temporary caretaker government, leading Provisional President Jocelerme Privert to name Enex Jean-Charles to the post this week. He is scheduled to go before Congress today, which must approve the appointment in order to advance towards much delayed presidential run-off elections to select the next government. In addition to a verification process for the questioned electoral process, the opposition is also demanding an audit of the country's finances under former President Michel Martelly. The country is in dire financial crisis and a humanitarian crisis looms, reports the Miami Herald. An ongoing drought has provoked a food security crisis, the country is behind on payments to Venezuela's Petrocaribe oil-loan program. This week the Port-au-Prince mayor's office announced that corpses can't be picked up off the streets in the capital because the company in charge of the task has not been paid.

• The political storm in Brazil worsened yesterday, with revelations that construction giant Odebrecht had made payments to over 200 politicians from 18 parties, reports the New York Times. The payments may or may not have been illegal, but the list, which was first reported by the Brazilian journalist Fernando Rodrigues, demonstrates the close ties between Brazil’s politicians and the nation's construction conglomerates, notes the NYTimes.

• More than 2 million Brazilians are set to lose unemployment benefits by June, which could erode support for President Dilma Rousseff among her working-class core, reports Reuters.

• A Supreme Court decision late Tuesday to move a corruption investigation of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to the highest court's purview puts the Supreme Court squarely in the middle of the drama caused by a high profile corruption investigation, reports the Wall Street Journal. (See Monday's post.)

• Mexico's attorney general's office announced an investigation into InterAmerican Human Rights Commission Secretary General Emilio Álvarez Icaza for alleged embezzlement of $2 million, reports El Financiero.

• The Wall Street Journal has a piece on how the interests of Google and the Obama administration aligned over Cuba policy. (See Monday's post.)
• A 21-year-old American woman has been detained in Honduras for allegedly heading a faction of the Mara Barrio 18, reports Reuters.

Macri welcomes Obama, as rights groups reject U.S. legacy (March 23, 2016)

Obama continued his Latin America tour yesterday, flying to Argentina where he seeks to bolster President Mauricio Macri, who was elected last year on a platform promising a closer relationship with the U.S.

Argentina is the first major South American leader to align publicly with U.S. policy toward Venezuela, and Macri has spoken out strongly against human-rights abuses there, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Unlike his predecesor Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Macri seeks to create an investor friendly climate and is looking to the U.S. for help, reports the Associated Press."President Macri recognizes that we're in a new era, and we have to look forward," Obama said ahead of his trip. The two leaders will hold a press conference later this morning.

The visit also signals Washington's backing for a shift to the political center in the region, reports the New York Times. The last U.S. President to visit was George W. Bush, who sought to push a free trade agreement and instead got lectured by then Presidents Hugo Chávez and Nestor Kirchner.

Macri himself represents a new shift in regional politics, reports the Wall Street Journal separately. 

Following his historic Cuba trip, Obama's Argentina visit represents a different kind of rapprochement, notes Reuters.

Annual trade between the two countries is at a minimum, and Obama hopes to create new economic exchanges, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Obama and Macri planned to announce new joint efforts on climate change, energy, and fighting drugs and crime, the White House said.

Macri has taken significant steps to end the decade-long debt dispute with litigating hedge-funds and seeks investors for the country's renewable energy industry, notes the New York Times.

Macri plans to make counter-narcotics a centerpiece of his national policy, and Security Minister Patricia Bullrich has already met with FBI and DEA officials in Washington. 

The new government's "paradigm shift" in drug policy represents "a realignment of the country on the map of world debate with regard to drug-related problems and drug trafficking," according to CELS' Manuel Tufró and Paula Litvachky, writing on Open Democracy. The policies remove Argentina from the group of countries in the region increasingly questioning the effectiveness of the "war on drugs," they write, and a fear campaign regarding drug trafficking is silencing incipient debates on the decriminalization of consumption.

The piece goes into depth regarding the adverse effects that can be expected in terms of violence, human rights violations and institutional functioning. They criticize that in such a context the prohibitionist model of drug control isn't even questioned. (See March 14's post and the post for Sept. 16, 2015, on CELS report documenting the harms of the "War on Drugs paradigm.)

The especially criticize the potential for military intervention in the new approach -- blurring the line between domestic security and foreign defense. Though armed forces have been used (with poor human rights results) in Mexico and Colombia, in Argentina the distinction between the two has been upheld since the return of democracy in 1983.

The debate comes at a symbolic time, on the eve of the 40th anniversary of the 1976 coup, which has also clouded over Obama's otherwise sunny and optimistic visit.

The coup ushered in a period of "dirty war" in which 30,000 people were "disappeared." The deep trauma that remains reflects the atrocity of a "premeditated mass murder," writes Uki Goñi in the New York Times.

Declassified cables show that then U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger appeared to support the military's repression tactics, notes the Wall Street Journal.

Human rights groups protested Obama's presence on the anniversary. He subsequently changed his itinerary and will spend Thursday in Bariloche, avoiding commemoration marches in Buenos Aires.

He will participate in an early morning ceremony in a memorial park, outside of Buenos Aires' city center. Human rights groups will boycott, calling his presence a provocation, reports the Guardian. Massive marches will take place in the afternoon.

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Adolfo Pérez Esquivel wrote an open letter to Obama. "In 1976, while you were only 14 years old, we were starting the most tragic period of our history, with the implementation of a state terrorism which subjected our people to persecution, torture, death and the forced disappearance of persons ... I am writing as a survivor of that horror [which included] financing, training, and coordination by the United States." (See March 4's briefs.)

Ahead of the visit the U.S. government is moving to declassify American military, intelligence and law enforcement records that could reveal what the United States government knew about the Argentina's brutal "dirty war" dictatorship which lasted until 1983, reports the New York Times. Last week several human rights groups, including Abuelas de Plaza de Mayo submitted requests to the U.S. embassy to declassify secret records.

The full extent of U.S. knowledge and support for human rights abuses -- which were spun as counter-terrorism actions -- is still shrouded in secrecy. 

"Declassifying a more extensive set of documents would also bring into sharper focus a shameful period of American foreign policy, during which Washington condoned and in some instances supported the brutal tactics of right-wing governments in the region," writes the New York Times Editorial Board. "It is time for the American government to do what it still can to help bring the guilty to justice and give the victims’ families some of the answers they seek."

Goñi notes that while the U.S. abetted the military junta, the President Jimmy Carter's administration was instrumental in saving lives and making human rights a cornerstone of his administration. He remembers the efforts of Carter’s human rights envoy, Patricia M. Derian and U.S. diplomat Tex Harris.

News Briefs

• Yesterday in a televised speech in Cuba, Obama called on President Raul Castro to implement change on the island, to allow free political expression and a less regulated economy, and to finally bury the hatchet on long-standing historical disputes from imperialism to the Cold War, reports the New York Times. His message to the Cuban people, in a speech unlike those they are used to hearing: "It's time to leave the past behind," reports the Washington Post. He made a "made a stirring case for democracy and freedom" and called for Cubans on the island and in the diaspora to come together, reports the Wall Street Journal.

• Obama's Cuba speech yesterday urged the island to engage with issues of race, a largely undiscussed topic for Cubans that the revolution supposedly resolved, reports the New York Times. (See yesterday's post.)

• For the baseball diplomacy commentators: The much maligned exhibition baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cuban national team was attended by both presidents and a contingent of the FARC guerrilla group's peace negotiating team in Havana. Leader Rodrigo Londoño looked relaxed wearing a baseball cap, blue Cuban team sweat jacket and sunglasses, and appeared to be enjoying the game with his fellow rebels, reports Reuters. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met with the rebel group on Monday, a meeting Londoño called "something unprecedented and unthinkable. We received support from him in person for the peace process in Colombia, which fills us with optimism and makes us more certain that we’re moving toward peace," according to the Latin American Herald Tribune. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• On Monday the U.N. warned about a possible surge in violence by paramilitary successor groups if the FARC demobilizes following a peace accord with the Colombian government, according to Colombia Reports. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff again affirmed that she will not resign, and called impeachment attempts a "coup d'etat" against democratic rule because she had committed no crime, reports Reuters. She could be suspended as soon as May if the move wins congressional support.
• In the meantime the Petrobras investigation will likely continue to expand and send shockwaves through the country's political system. (See Monday's post.) Yesterday executives at Odebrecht, the major engineering and construction firm at the center of the corruption investigation agreed to ask prosecutors for plea bargains, reports Reuters. The move comes as investigators uncovered systematic corruption at Odebrecht, with an office to pay bribes on work for World Cup soccer stadiums and Olympics legacy projects, as well as a bribery scheme that helped skim money off of state-run oil company Petrobras contracts.

• Late yesterday a Brazilian Supreme Court judge ordered that a corruption investigation  of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be sent to the country's highest court, reports the Wall Street Journal. That effectively eliminates the risk of his immediate arrest.

• Corruption scandals continue to plague governments across the region. Chile, which is generally seen as a case apart, has been suffering an ongoing campaign financing scandal for the past year which has cast a shadow over politicians of all major parties. Now they are struggling to find an unblemished candidate for next year's election, reports Bloomberg.

• The ongoing electoral disaster in Peru, where two popular candidates were already eliminated from the running by an electoral board determined to carry out strict interpretations of the law, could now lead to all of the leading candidates being eliminated for relatively minor infractions. The determination would come only a few days before the April 10 presidential elections, but demonstrates the absurdity of the board's process, writes Gustavo Gorriti in Caretas (republished on IDL-Reporteros). (See yesterday's briefs.)

Obama's Cuba visit spurs exchanges and (maybe) impossibly high expectations (March 22, 2016)

Cubans watched a question session between President Raúl Castro and American journalists in shock, reports the New York Times. Topics in yesterday's forceful exchange with the American press included Cuba's human rights record and political prisoners.

That the live-broadcast news conference with the two leaders happened at all is already a reflection of intensive diplomatic negotiations. In a country where few dare to publicly question the Castro brothers, the exchange was revolutionary, reports the Associated Press.

The event was marked by a jarring juxtaposition of diplomatic formality and public jousting, according to the Washington Post.

The conference underscored both the distance traversed since the initial agreement to work towards reestablishing relations 15 months ago, and the deep obstacles that have yet to be overcome, reports the Wall Street Journal.

The interchange was left out of official state television reports of the day, indicating likely discomfort on the part of Cuban officials. Castro was visibly nervous, and had an antiquated perspective, criticizes 14 y Medio.

The encounter was unexpectedly spirited. Castro used the opportunity to demand the return of Guantanamo Bay and a full end to the U.S. trade embargo. He also attempted to change the focus of human rights critiques, notes the Guardian. Asked about human rights, the Cuban president argued that no country in the world guarantees all rights or freedoms.

"There are profound differences between our countries that will not go away," said Castro. "In our view, civil, economic, social and cultural rights are indivisible, interdependent and universal ... We find it inconceivable that a government does not defend and secure the right to healthcare, equal pay and the rights of children. We oppose political double standards in the approach to human rights."

When questioned about political prisoners, Castro testily responded that any political prisoners who could be identified would be released by evening. There's some disagreement as to whether there are political prisoners -- according to Amnesty International there are no current prisoners of conscience, but the group notes more than 8,600 politically motivated detentions of government opponents and activists in 2015. (See yesterday's post.)

The White House suggested the administration would not immediately respond to Castro’s call for a list of people who the U.S. claims are political prisoners. National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes notes that the problem is they are detained for infringing Cuban law and are not considered political prisoners by the government.

But within minutes human rights organizations released lists of people they say are serving sentences for political crimes, reports the Miami Herald. Different groups released different lists, showing the difficulty of obtaining information from Cuba's penal system and the fact that short-term detentions mean some of the people have already been released.

The episode was not without awkward scenes, notes the Guardian. Castro berated the U.S. for its own civil rights record and attempted to lift Obama's arm in the air. Because words are not good at transmitting what happened there, the Miami Herald has a breakdown of what it calls "the most awkward ending to a presidential press conference in recent memory." The U.S. president left his hand limp, depriving the Cuban government of an important photo-op. Obama is attempting to toe a difficult line between warmth and critiques of the regime's human rights record. 

Both governments say they want to start a new chapter in their countries’ relations, but not all tensions could be glossed over, reports the Los Angeles Times.

Obama welcomed "constructive dialogue" in reference to Cuban criticisms of U.S. healthcare and race relations. But he also lobbed a thinly veiled critique of socialism, saying "there are some economic models that just don't work," reports the Guardian.

He also stated that the two countries cannot fully normalize relations if the Castro regime doesn't improve its record on democracy and human rights, notes the WSJ.

Cuban-Americans' reactions to Obama's trip reflect a changed perspective in the exile community, reports the New York Times. While many still hope for regime change, many see the visit as part of an agenda of incremental advances towards a more free Cuba.

(Cuban criticisms of U.S. race relations aside, Obama's visit is spurring a local conversation about race, which has long been considered an off-limits topic, reports the Los Angeles Times.)

The Associated Press refers to the strategy as one of "nudging Cuba toward democracy." The visit was "grounded in the notion that direct interaction with Cubans would do more to empower them and bring about change than decades of isolation ever did," and Obama's speech later today at the Havana Grand Theater will be critical, according to the piece.

Cuban dissidents are calling on Obama for a sharper rebuke of his host's human rights record, reports the Guardian. White House officials sought to downplay such expectations.

Nonetheless, Cuban officials are also making their point that not everything wrought by the revolution needs changing. The opportunity is one for a more nuanced debate, leaving behind the Cold War binaries argues Elaine Díaz in the Guardian.

Díaz runs Periodismo de Barrio, an independent digital media outlet. It's one of two profiled by El País, both run by Cuban youths.

While Díaz calls for an end of overly endowed symbology, Yoani Sánchez emphasizes the relevance of Obama's carefully orchestrated overtures towards the Cuban people --including a skit with a well-known local comedian -- and the contrast he casts with the aged and white island leadership.

The expectations he is creating might be too high she suggests. "People want Saint Obama to work miracles." The Huffington Post has the English translation of her piece, in which she writes: "Thousands of parents across the country are putting on the shoulders of the visitor the responsibility of convincing their children not to leave on the rafts of despair. They believe that he will be able to stop this incessant flow that is bleeding the country, if only he manages to persuade them that a new Cuba is just around the corner." The Atlantic reviews the piece.

At the end of the day, ordinary Cubans worry that not much will change after the visit, reports theMiami Herald.

News Briefs

• In the meantime, Cuban migrants in Panama, attempting to reach the U.S., sent Obama a letter asking for answers regarding the migratory crisis, reports 14 y Medio.

• As the two countries advance in rapprochement, Cuba's baseball scene is in crisis due to ongoing high-profile defections. But detente could affect both countries' leagues. Major League Baseball is in talks with both nations' governments on a potential deal that could make it easier for Cuban ballplayers to play in the United States, reports the Associated Press. The island sport "is all but ready to be engulfed by a tsunami of Major League dollars," according to theGuardian. MLB executives and Cuban officials are expected to mingle at today's exhibition game between the Cuban team and the Tampa Rays, reports El País.

• General Electric and the Cuban government signed memorandums of understanding yesterday. The U.S. firm seeks to provide power, aviation and medical equipment to the Cuban government, reports the Wall Street Journal. Obama's visit comes as U.S. businesses are flocking to the island, reports the Washington Post. U.S. business executives met with Cuban business people yesterday in a series of entrepreneurial sessions, reports the Miami Herald. Obama reiterated his call for the U.S. Congress to lift the embargo, a statement that was met with applause. 

• U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry held an unprecedented closed-door meeting with FARC rebels in Havana yesterday. He also met, separately, with Colombian government negotiators, who are engaged in peace talks with the guerrilla group, reports the Guardian. Protection against paramilitary violence was a central topic of the meeting, according to Colombia Reports. FARC leaders, including Rodrigo "Timochenko" Londoño, gave Kerry an signed copy of the Spanish-language book Resistance of a People in Arms, a compilation of the personal diaries and letters of Farc founder Manuel Marulanda. The inscription in Spanish says the book tells part of the story of an "insurgent organization that today is preparing to transition to a legal political movement." The White House portrayed the meeting as one of many diplomatic dividends in the region stemming from the new Cuba policy.

• Though tomorrow is the deadline for a final peace accord agreed on last year, the negotiations will likely take a few more months, reports El País. Yesterday the FARC negotiators released a statement assuring the good news would come soon.

• New York Times' Venezuela correspondent Nicolas Casey was invited to witness a FARC hideout in what is presumably its last days before a final peace accord is reached with the Colombian government. He calls it a "communist time capsule." "An old guerrilla fighter sings songs about Che Guevara on his guitar as a crowd leans in to listen, armed with rifles and grenades. ... They say life is still possible with Karl Marx in one hand and a Kalashnikov in the other."

• A new study suggests that cholera deaths in Haiti that followed the 2010 earthquake could be much higher than the 9,200 tallied originally, due to underreporting at the beginning of the outbreak, reports the New York Times.

• Peru's electoral upheaval is far from over. With three weeks until the presidential election, and two front-runner candidates already eliminated for infringing rules, the two current front-runners could still be tossed out on charges of vote-buying. Peru's electoral board said yesterday that it had received a citizen petition to investigate investor favorite Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) for vote buying. The board is already investigating Keiko Fujimori on similar charges, reports Reuters. (See last Wednesday's post.) The two represent nearly 50 percent of voter intent, according to an Ipsos poll.

• Mercosur foreign ministers are attempting to orchestrate institutional support for Brazil in the midst of its overwhelming political crisis, reports El País. (See yesterday's post.)

• For those (everybody) still confused as to where the Brazilian political crisis might lead, the Los Angeles Times synthetically analyzes some of the potential avenues of development.
• Yesterday Brazil's finance minister announced several new measures aimed at reducing a budget deficit and relieving local governments' debts. The measures include spending limits for the federal government and bank policies, but will require Congressional approval, which isn't likely to be easy in the current political climate, reports the Wall Street Journal.
• In the midst of the ever growing investigation into corruption at Petrobras, the state-owned oil company admitted to record losses last year of 9.6 billion dollars, reports El País. The company was impacted by lower oil prices and higher borrowing costs, according to the Wall Street Journal.

• Early today the Brazilian police launched another round of arrests and raids targeting construction firm Odebrecht SA, reports the Wall Street Journal.

• Harvest time is beginning in the region's biggest legal marijuana farm in Chile. About 1.5 tons of crop will be harvested for medicinal use, reports El País.

• The "El Niño" weather phenomenon is affecting water levels in the Panama Canal, where ships will be temporarily forced to comply with new depth restrictions, reports Reuters.

• Ecuador created a new marine sanctuary in the Galápagos Islands to protect the world's greatest concentration of sharks, reports the Guardian.

Obama is welcome in Cuba -- dissent isn't. (Also Brazil's Castelo de cartas) (March 21, 2016)

Cubans lined Havana streets last night in the pouring rain to catch a glimpse of U.S. President Barack Obama and shout encouragement. The first visit from a sitting president in nearly 90 years.

He received a surprisingly warm welcome from an island steeped in Cold War ethos, notes the Miami Herald. Instead of "Yanquee go home," the president and his family were received with chants of "USA."

Yesterday Obama visited the Cathedral de San Cristóbal de la Habana, where he met with Cardinal Jaime Ortega, who played a key role in setting up the rapprochement between the two countries, reports the New York Times.

Today met with Cuban President Raúl Castro in Havana's Palace of the Revolution, a meeting that will give clues as to whether Obama's sharp U-turn in policy will be fully reciprocated, reports the Associated Press. Later the two leaders will address reporters.

This will be their fourth meeting, and likely the most substantial, notes Reuters.

Obama will be giving a much anticipated speech tomorrow, that will be broadcast by Cuban media. 

Every step of the visit is fraught with history, notes the Washington Post piece which reviews a lot of it, from the 1898 Havana Harbor explosion of the USS Maine which launched the American invasion of the then-Spanish occupied island, to the former Texaco oil refinery nationalized by the Castro government in 1960.

The Cuban government has tightly controlled all aspects of the visit -- from the newly pastel painted buildings lining the U.S. president's route through Old Havana to the arrest of dozens of dissidents yesterday morning and previous preventative detentions, reports the New York Times.

Dozens of arrests were made at the weekly march of Ladies in White, a prominent dissident group. They march outside a suburban church most Sundays, and yesterday was seen as a litmus test for how the Cuban government would tolerate dissent during the visit, reports the New York Times (separate piece). "The arrests confirmed that Cuba was maintaining its long history of repressive tactics, if not intensifying their reach." In the lead up to the visit they have stepped up intimidatory practices with well-known dissidents as well, according to the piece.

Significantly, the media spotlight on the protest and the proximity of Obama's visit were apparently not deterrents to repression, notes the Miami Herald. So far this year politically motivated detentions are on the rise, rather than wane. 

Obama is scheduled to meet with with dissidents tomorrow, including a Ladies in White leader. Their detention highlights a challenge of his trip: how to forge relations with the government while maintaining a critical stance of its human rights record.

Obama acknowledged in the interview with anchor David Muir that "we still have significant differences around human rights and civil liberties" but argued that making the trip at this time "would maximize our ability to prompt more change," reports the Associated Press.

Obama has promised to talk about freedom of speech and assembly in Cuba, according to Reuters. In a letter to the Ladies in White earlier this month he said he'd raise those issues directly with Castro.

The Guardian has more interviews with dissidents in which they denounce abuses by the Cuban government.

Miami Herald's Andrés Oppenheimer interviews a leading dissident and is skeptical of any real change on the human rights front. 

One of Obama's key events today will be meeting with small-business people from the island -- the "cuentapropistas" -- and visiting American business executives, reports the Associated Press.

Obama will announce a Google coordinated internet upgrade for the island during his visit, according to the AP. Western Union will also be announcing expansion onto the island, reports the Wall Street Journal.

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The political scene in Brazil is boiling over. It's so epic that the constant comparisons to the Netflix series "House of Cards," almost seem apt. (In fact Nexo has a fun quiz "Did it happen in Brazil, or House of Cards," republished by America's Quarterly in English.)

The convulsions were coming once a week, then once a day, and now, hourly, laments Eliane Brum at the Guardian. As she picturesquely put it: "On Thursday 17 March, Brazilians tuned in to watch as former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was sworn inas a cabinet minister. Then they went to use the toilet or get a drink, and by the time they came back his appointment had already been blocked by a judge."

President Dilma Rousseff's naming of Lula as her chief of staff last week  was immediately countered by several injunction orders by judges around the country. Though two of those were challenged and fell on Friday, that same day a Supreme Court judge decided to suspend the appointment, until until a panel of Supreme Court justices makes a final ruling following an appeal by the government, reports the Wall Street Journal.

The latest series of volleys in the ongoing war that is Brazilian politics have been led by the judicial branch notes, the AFP. As judges have dropped one bombshell after another in recent days, some critics have accused the judiciary of trying to destabilize the already crisis-hit government.

The question now is whether Judge Sergio Moro will issue an arrest warrant for Lula while he has the chance, according to the WSJ. It is possible that the government move of apparently shielding Lula from Moro's wide-ranging investigation could embolden him to up the ante against the politician. Already Rousseff and allies are accusing him of politically-motivated overreach in releasing tapped phone conversations between Rousseff and Lula in which they seem to be arranging for his protection from the investigation. (See last Thursday's post.)

"It is impossible to predict with any degree of confidence whether the government of President Dilma Rousseff will survive," reports the BBC, giving a bit of the doomsday flavor of reporting out of Brazil. "Whatever the rights and wrongs of the case against the under fire leader ... Rousseff is on the ropes, in the political equivalent of a bare-knuckle fight for her survival." The piece reviews the past decade of Brazilian politics, including the socio-economic divide between anti and pro government protesters. (See last Monday's post.)

A Datafolha poll from Sunday suggested strong support for Rousseff's impeachment, reports the Associated Press. (See last Thursday's post.) Sixty-eight percent of respondents wanted to see the president impeached, a percentage that increases in relation to income: the rich support the move by 74 percent.

Critics say Lula accepted a cabinet post in an attempt to shield himself from a corruption investigation, and his ratings have taken a corresponding hit, according to the survey. He has a 57 disapproval rating; down from a 90 percent approval rating when he left office in 2010. Nonetheless, respondents still rated him the best president the country's ever had.

In the meantime, calls for Rousseff's ouster continue, as the impeachment process continues to wend its way through Congress. The case, which is unrelated to the Petrobras corruption investigation, centers on allegations that she used illegal accounting tricks to mask a deterioration in Brazil's fiscal situation. The vote will likely take place next month or in May, and would require the backing of two thirds of Congress' lower chamber to move forward, reports the Wall Street Journal.

If you, like pretty much anybody else, are confused as to the chain of command and what's going on, the New York Times has a trilingual chart on the main players and what they're being investigated for in relation the Petrobras corruption scandal. It's worth noting that at this stage more members of Congress are facing serious charges (including bribery electoral fraud and homicide) than not.

It's worth noting that the more than 150 members of Congress and government officials who are facing such serious charges, all can only be tried by the Supreme Court, which is facing a serious backlog of cases, notes the BBC piece.

Operation Car Wash aside: Portuguese police arrested a man in Lisbon in relation to the massive Petrobras corruption investigation, reports the Wall Street Journal.

News Briefs

• A barrage of Cuba related features showing up everywhere:

• "Cuba on the edge of  change," a photo essay of the island by the New York Times. "Cuba at times can feel like a nation abandoned. The aching disrepair of its cities, the untamed foliage of its countryside, the orphaned coastlines — a half-century of isolation has wrapped the country in decay. Yet few places in the world brim with as much life as Cuba, a contrast drawn sharper amid its faded grandeur."

• An expanding class of entrepreneurs are opting to remain on the island, betting on Cuba's future despite serious challenges, reports the New York Times. Nonetheless, it's a drop in the bucket compared to those who opt to leave. More than twice as many Cubans went to live in the United States last year than in 1959, when Fidel Castro took power.

• Obama's visit to Cuba is creating hopes of a flood of investment. But entrepreneurs and consultants who have spent years working towards such goals warn that the island's government, which is suspicious of profit-making enterprise, and the ongoing U.S. trade embargo, will make things difficult despite the good will, reports the Wall Street Journal.

• U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet with FARC negotiators in Havana later today. The rebels would first meet the U.S. special envoy for Colombian peace talks, Bernard Aronson, to agree on an agenda, reports Deutsche Welle.

• As Colombian negotiators work against the clock to meet a peace agreement deadline this week, UNICEF released a report showing the high cost of the conflict with the FARC in recent years. Over the past three years of peace negotiations with the guerrilla group, about a quarter of a million children have been displaced. About 1,000 Colombian children were used or recruited by nonstate armed combatants during the same period, roughly 200 children were killed or wounded in attacks or from land mines or other explosives, and another 200 were victims of sexual violence, reports the New York Times.