Reporting on Central America's ongoing gang crisis (May 20, 2016)

The flood of unaccompanied Central American minors fleeing to the U.S. in order to escape gang violence at home has receded since 2014. But the reduction belies "the gritty persistence of an ongoing humanitarian catastrophe," reports The Intercept.

The decline is largely due to a U.S. policy of subcontracting the job of turning back migrants to the Mexican government. Apprehensions in Mexico have gone up by 71 percent, without an accompanying expansion of screenings for legitimate asylum claims.

The piece goes in depth on the dangerous journeys taken by would-be migrants seeking asylum from gang violence at home.

The human cost of gang violence in El Salvador is excruciating, but the gangs also have an important financial toll: they cost the country up to 16 percent of its GDP, reports the Economist.

A vast network of gang organization is a central feature of life in El Salvador. Authorities estimate that up to 70,000 people belong to gangs, and that another half a million financially depend on them.

While the gangs are less wealthy and politically influential than their Mexican cartel counterparts, observers fear their influence could grow. Already Salvadorans pay $756 million a year, about 3 percent of GDP, to gangs, according to a study by the country's central bank and the UNDP.

And the extortion racket is intimately linked to the humanitarian crisis organizations are increasingly pointing to. "Salvadorans have always emigrated north in search of better paid jobs. But as the country struggles to contain ferocious gang violence, it is the threat of attack and the burden of extortion rackets that are pushing more of its citizens to flee, and their businesses to close," reports Reuters.

News Briefs

• Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has fended off protests and ouster attempts before, but this time he is increasingly relying on repressive measures rather than social programs to retain control, reports the Guardian. (See yesterday's post.)

• Confused about Venezuela? Michael McCarthy summarizes the 6 things you need to know about the crisis in the Washington Post. They include a review of the country's dependence on oil and a presidential system lacking in checks and balances.

• Leaked NSA documents show that the show that the agency aimed staff training on national security issues in Latin America at steering the region towards U.S. interests, reports TeleSur. The report is based on the latest batch of National Security Agency documents revealed by whistleblower Edward Snowden this week, and released by The Intercept.

• Brazilian acting President Michel Temer is shuffling top government jobs. His latest appointment is Pedro Parente, formerly the top executive at the Brazilian unit of U.S. agribusiness giant Bunge, to head state oil company Petrobras, reports the Wall Street Journal.

• That's not all though, in the week since he's taken the reins of government, Temer's administration has already started scaling back social policies enacted by the 13 years of Workers' Party government, reports the Guardian. "Moves are under way to soften the definition of slavery, roll back the demarcation of indigenous land, trim housebuilding programs and sell off state assets in airports, utilities and the post office. Newly appointed ministers also are talking of cutting healthcare spending and reducing the cost of the bolsa familia poverty relief system. Four thousand government jobs have been cut. The culture ministry has been subsumed into education." 

• Rousseff's impeachment put the future of the country's democracy and its robust tradition of citizen participation and struggle at stake, argues Jeffrey Rubin at The Conversation. "Will the presence of newly empowered citizens claiming, voting for, and implementing inclusive policies continue through this tempestuous time? Or, will right-wing politicians and business people again succeed in turning back these achievements, at great cost to poor majorities and a democratic government," he asks. "The key issue right now is less who is governing than how they are governing. The prospects are not encouraging," he writes, predicting a rollback of economic and political rights.

• At least somebody is happy though. Andrés Oppenheimer celebrates what he sees as a positive change in Brazil's foreign policy, a step away from the unconditional support of "Cuba, Venezuela and other authoritarian regimes."

• In the lead up to the Rio de Janeiro Olympics, the New York Times has a "Room for Debate" feature over whether they should be postponed. Theresa Williamson of Catalytic Communities laments the damage already done, which includes 77,000 evictions and increased police killings. "The Olympics should not have been held in Rio in the first place. We could have foreseen such damage in a city that has a history of only building to show off and not serving its citizens," she writes.

• In need of literary diversion? The English translation of Luiz Eduardo Soares' book on Rio is out. "The nine tales are all standalone but they have a lot of connecting tissue. As a body of powerful descriptive essays, they gradually reveal the violence and corruption that underpins so much of the quotidian experience of the Cariocas, as the inhabitants of Rio are known. The fabled party culture exists both despite and because of the lurking nightmares," writes Misha Glenny in a review for the Guardian.

• A reporter killed this weekend in Mexico's Veracruz state became the sixth journalist to be assassinated in the country this year, and the second in the state, reports the Guardian's Roy Greenslade. "According to research by the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), at least six journalists have been killed in direct retribution for their work since Javier Duarte de Ochoa became governor of Veracruz in 2010."

• Last week's absolution of three soldiers accused of homicide in the so-called "Tlatlaya Massacre" in which at least a dozen alleged gang members were executed after they surrendered shows how even in an emblematic case, with clear proof about the crime, "Mexican authorities have failed to sanction perpetrators of extrajudicial killings," writes WOLA's Maureen Meyer. (See Tuesday's briefs.)

• Agricultural overexploitation of aquifers in Mexico's Guanajuato State is leading to water shortages and tainted supplies for locals, reports the New York Times.

• Argentine President Mauricio Macri confirmed his veto of a law passed this week in Congress that doubled indemnities for layoffs, in an attempt to stem unemployment, reports La Nación. (See yesterday's briefs.) 

Venezuela's opposition clashes with riot police (May 19, 2016)

Thousands of protesters attempting to reach the electoral authority's headquarters in Venezuela clashed with riot police yesterday. Anti-government protests are picking up, yesterday's was the third this week. Demonstrators demanding a recall referendum were blocked by police and a small group was tear gassed when it tried to break through, reports the Associated Press.

Efecto Cocuyo has details of the events and pictures.

Seven people were arrested for allegedly participating in violence that wounded five police officers, reports Efecto Cocuyo. They are accused of being part of groups convoked by jailed opposition leader Leopoldo López in 2014.

Opposition leader Henrique Capriles said government supporters infiltrated the ranks of the demonstration in order to create disturbances, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

President Nicolás Maduro warned yesterday that he might declare a "State of Internal Commotion" if cases of "golpismo" come up, reports Efecto Cocuyo. He said yesterday that the country finds itself in an "exceptional state" that requires "exceptional actions" to maintain the peace.

Speaking yesterday, Maduro appeared to give an expiration date for the opposition-led National Assembly, questioning whether it will last until October when it has to present the budget, reports Efecto Cocuyo separately. (See yesterday's briefs.)

OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro made diplomatic waves yesterday with a strongly worded letter to President Nicolás Maduro, telling him that to deny people the opportunity to vote in a recall referendum this year would make him "just another petty dictator, like so many this hemisphere has had," reports the Wall Street Journal.

Almagro said he might apply the OAS's Democratic Charter to Venezuela, as requested earlier this week by Human Rights Watch, and earlier by the National Assembly. Such a move would be a step towards an emergency meeting of the multilateral organization's General Assembly and the potential suspension of Venezuela from the OAS.

The harsh tone of Almagro's letter, was celebrated by government opponents (see Caracas Chronicles for a particularly warm reception) but could also work against resolving the impasse. Experts say it ups the ante between Venezuela and the multilateral organization, and could ultimately work against diplomatic resolution, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

Another colorful international condemnation came yesterday from former Uruguayan President José "Pepe" Mujica, who said he respects Maduro, but he's "crazy like a goat," reports Efecto Cocuyo.

On the subject of mediation, the upcoming visit of the Vatican Secretary for Relations with States has been cancelled for reasons external to the Holy See, reports Efecto Cocuyo. (See yesterday's briefs.)

But former Spanish President José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is apparently in Caracas as a link between the opposition and the government. Though he has maintained a very low profile, he has apparently had several meetings with Maduro and the opposition MUD coalition, according to Efecto Cocuyo.

Vigilante justice against alleged thieves is becoming increasingly common in Venezuela. The public prosecutor opened 74 investigations into vigilante killings in the first four months of this year, compared to two all of last year, reports the Associated Press. And polls show that most of the population supports mob retribution as a form of self-protection.

Belt tightening due to lack of dollars is already forcing the country to go through IMF style austerity measures, without the benefit of the actual loans, argues Pedro Rosas Rivero in the Caracas Chronicles.

News Briefs

• A New York Times video report looks at abortion in Brazil, and how the Zika virus is creating even more challenges for women in a country where access to legal abortions is already severely restricted. Not that it stops women from getting the procedure: Last year, the number of women who sought medical attention for botched abortions outpaced the number of women who received legal abortions by nearly 100 to one, according to Health Ministry estimates.

• A New Yorker piece looks at the Brazilian impeachment process within the context of the wider political crisis. "Brazilian politics suffers from chronic dysfunction.  ... Three decades after the military ceded power to a civilian government, Brazil’s latest experiment with democracy is facing yet another identity crisis," writes Alex Cuadros.

• It's the beginning of a neo-liberal carnival in Brazil, argues Belen Fernandez at Al Jazeera. 

• In the meantime, the Workers' Party insists that President Dilma Rousseff was the victim of a coup and announced a campaign to "remove" Acting President Michel Temer, reports EFE.

• Two of Brazil's biggest unions rejected an invitation to meet with Temer, saying they don't reject his government's legitimacy, reports the Associated Press.

• Time for a renewal of political paradigm in Brazil, argues Matías Bianchi in Asuntos del Sur. He notes "the contrast between current institutional politics and emerging social sectors who are exploring new frontiers, who are designing collaborative logics, who are including new issues on the public agenda and carrying out democratic practices that are completely innovative ..."

• Argentina's Congress approved a bill last night that would double the cost of laying off private and public employees. President Mauricio Macri, who is expected to veto it almost immediately, has said it will spook investment and destroy jobs, reports the Wall Street Journal. But the legislative defeat also raises questions about Macri's ability to get legislation through Congress where his party is in the minority in both houses, and signals an opposition-set political agenda.

• Macri launched a renewable energy plan yesterday designed to attract billions of dollars in investment over the next ten years, reports the Wall Street Journal. The first phase started yesterday, and is an that calls for companies to bid on contracts to produce 1,000 megawatts of power from renewable sources including wind and solar energy.

• An ongoing doctors' strike in Haiti's public hospitals show the desperate state of affairs in a crumbling health system, reports AFP.

• The secretary general of Peruvian presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori's party stepped down yesterday, in an attempt to quell an uproar following media reports that he is linked to money laundering, reports Reuters. (See Tuesday's briefs.)

Colombia face-off with Novartis, U.S. lawmakers over cancer drug pricing (May 18, 2016)

Colombia is facing off against international pharmaceutical giant Novartis. The government has given the world's biggest drugmaker a few weeks to lower prices on a leukemia drug or see its monopoly on production of the medicine broken and competition thrown open to generic rivals.

The increasingly public fight "could set a precedent for middle-income countries grappling to contain rising prices for complex drugs," reports the Associated Press.

Leaked memos from the Colombian Embassy in Washington describe intense pressure from the pharmaceutical industry and its allies in the U.S. Congress. They raise the possibility that the government's efforts to lower the price of Gleevec (also called Glivec) could jeopardize the $450 million promised by the U.S. to help fund peace talks with the FARC, reports the Huffington Post. 

(See Feb. 5's and Feb. 26's posts on the "Peace Colombia" plan.)

The leaked letters describe how a staffer with the U.S. Senate Finance Committee warned of repercussions if Colombia moves forward on approving the cheaper, generic form of the cancer drug, reports The Intercept. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, who leads the Senate Committee close ties to the pharmaceutical industry, notes the piece.

Health Minister Alejandro Gaviria said the pressure shows the forceful steps that the pharmaceutical industry is willing to take to protect its commercial interests, reports the AP.

The high prices for the popular drug are straining Colombia's health budget, as the health care system guarantees patients' access to all approved drugs.

Over 120 international experts wrote a letter to Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos earlier this week supporting his right to create a generic version of the drug, called Imatinib, according to Colombia Reports.

News Briefs 

• Tensions are ratcheting up further in Venezuela. The opposition is planning an opposition march today to demand a presidential recall, and the government has promised to bar them from Caracas' center in order to avoid bloodshed, reports the Miami Herald. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro warned the opposition that they had missed a key date in their attempt to implement a recall referendum and warned them that their demonstration today would be met with the full force of law. (See yesterday's and Monday's posts.)

• Opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski warned the Armed Forces that they must choose whether to stand with the people or with the government, and that the government can't prevent today's march because there are constitutional guarantees that aren't suspended yet, reports the Caracas Chronicles.

• Maduro said yesterday that the country's opposition-led "National Assembly has lost political validity. It's a matter of time before it disappears," reports Reuters. (See yesterday's and Monday's posts.)

• The government is not obligated to carry out a recall vote, he said, and also denounced a smear campaign by the international press, including the Washington Post and the New York Times, reports Efecto Cocuyo. (See yesterday's post.)

• The National Assembly, in the meantime, approved an agreement that condemns both the State of Exception and the Economic Emergency announced by the executive last week, and nullified the decrees enacting them, reports the Caracas Chronicles. (See Monday's post.) The heated debate in the National Assembly nearly came to blows between legislators, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

• Maduro has the upper hand, for now, as the judiciary and electoral authorities side with the government and can overrule the National Assembly's rejection of the state of emergency and obstruct the recall referendum, respectively, reports the Guardian.

• A U.S. plane with "lethal technical capabilities" illegally entered Venezuelan airspace, denounced Maduro in yesterday's speech, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

• "I don't remember a political landscape this combustible in Venezuela, well…ever. I don’t remember our political conflict ever been this suffused with menace, this clearly poised for violence," writes Francisco Toro in the Caracas Chronicles. (See yesterday's post.)

• As things heat up, there is talk in Venezuela of Vatican mediation in the face-off between the government and the political opposition, writes David Smilde at Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights. The Vatican announced an upcoming visit by its Secretary for Relations with States, and some hopeful observers point to the role of the Catholic Church in brokering the U.S.-Cuba rapprochement. "However, difficult relations between the Vatican and the Venezuelan Hierarchy, and between the Hierarchy and the Maduro government, in addition to the latter's likely disinterest in negotiation will make such mediation complex," warns Smilde.

• Smilde also notes that some kind of mediation would be welcome in Venezuela, where opinion polls show that over 90 percent of Venezuelans want the government and opposition to work together.

• It is however worth noting that the government has no legal way to shut down parliament, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

• Dominican Republican President Danilo Medina handily won reelection with over 60 percent of the vote on Sunday. Preliminary results show his party also retained control over the Congress, albeit with fewer seats, reports the Wall Street Journal. The OAS observer team criticized the country's election finance system and said new fingerprint scanning machines caused widespread delays in Sunday's voting. People were seen buying voter identification cards outside polling stations, according to the team.

•  A close aide to the Mexican president met with a government contractor at the center of a real estate scandal involving house purchases from him by the first lady and finance minister. Mexico's Communications Minister Gerardo Ruiz Esparza met Juan Armando Hinojosa, the businessman in question, in June and July in Mexico City of last year, as the government conducted an inquiry into the issue that ultimately found no evidence of wrongdoing, reports the Wall Street Journal. (See April 5's post on Hinojosa's off-shore dealings revealed in the "Panama Papers.")

• Mexican President Enrique Peñalosa said he will seek to legalize gay marriage in the country through a constitutional amendment and civil code reform. He said the proposals aim to enshrine in law a Supreme Court ruling last year that determined state-bans on gay marriage to be unconstitutional, reports the Wall Street Journal. Last year's ruling already de facto legalized gay marriage. With the new initiative Mexico would join Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil, as well as Colombia -- meaning more than 70 percent of Latin Americans will live in countries where same-sex marriage is permitted, notes the New York Times.  Same-sex marriage was legalized by ordinance in Mexico City and upheld by the Supreme Court in 2010, it was the first Latin American jurisdiction to do so, reports the Guardian. The announcement was criticized by church officials in Mexico, which is home to the second-largest Roman Catholic population in the world, reports the Associated Press.

• The cast and crew of a Brazilian drama in competition at Cannes, Aquarius, mounted a protest to what they call a coup in their country at the film's official premiere, reports the Guardian. The protest was met by ecstatic applause inside the cinema.

• Agricultural giant Monsanto is pressuring the Argentine government to collect royalty payments on genetically engineered seeds in the country. It has canceled plans to launch new biotech soybeans the country and is threatening to withdraw other seeds already sold there, reports the Wall Street Journal.

• Ecuador was hit with a 6.7 magnitude earthquake this morning in the same zone where less than a month ago the largest earthquake to affect the country in decades killed more than 650 people and injured more than 16,600. The extent of the damage is not yet clear, reports the New York Times, though President Rafael Correa wrote on Twitter that there were no early reports of damage. Electricity was cut in some coastal areas, reports Reuters.

Venezuela is falling apart (May 17, 2016)

Venezuela is falling apart, is pretty much the main theme in foreign press coverage of the country these days. An insightful article in the Atlantic by Moisés Naím and Francisco Toro attempts to give a broader picture of the magnitude of the situation, beyond the now-common stories of chronic shortages, lines and protests. (See yesterday's post.)

"Developing countries, like teenagers, are prone to accidents. One pretty much expects them to suffer an economic crash, a political crisis, or both, with some regularity. The news coming from Venezuela—including shortages as well as, most recently, riots over blackouts; the imposition of a two-day workweek for government employees, supposedly aimed at saving electricity; and an accelerating drive to recall the president—is dire, but also easy to dismiss as representing just one more of these recurrent episodes.

"That would be a mistake. What our country is going through is monstrously unique: It’s nothing less than the collapse of a large, wealthy, seemingly modern, seemingly democratic nation just a few hours' flight from the United States."

They blame chavismo, and share some powerful vignettes of life with medical shortages, increasing crime and a spreading Zika epidemic.

Venezuela's crisis is becoming untenable, and "the threats Venezuelans face today are not the result of foreign or domestic conspiracies, but [President Nicolás] Maduro's disastrous leadership," argues a forceful New York Times editorial. The piece criticizes Venezuela's government for avoiding long-term economic solutions, such as seeking IMF funding.

"Over the past decade and a half, Mr. Chávez and Mr. Maduro made spending on welfare benefits their top priority to keep their base loyal, while neglecting institutional reforms that would have diversified the country’s revenue sources and made lasting improvements to the education and health systems." 

Yet Maduro could still make it through his term, Inter-American Dialogue president Michael Shifter told the Latin American Advisor. "The opposition remains relatively weak and divided, unable to capitalize on its majority in the national assembly to drive the country’s political dynamics and policy agenda."

Perhaps international invasion will be the only means of ousting Maduro. Former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe proposes military intervention, reports TeleSur.

In the meantime, Venezuela's government says it has reached a deal with China to improve the conditions of an oil-for-loans deal, giving the country lee-way ahead of heavy debt payments, reports Reuters. (See yesterday's post.)

The government is also trying to invite multinational corporations back to the country's mining industry -- but up to 100,000 illegal miners and armed gangs, some of whom appear to have a good working relationship with local military commanders, severely complicate the situation, reports the Wall Street Journal.

News Briefs

• Gang violence in Latin America has become the main challenge for aid agencies working in slum neighborhoods, reports Reuters. Next week at the first World Humanitarian Summit, a Global Alliance for Urban Crises will be launched, bringing together U.N. agencies, international aid groups, the private sector and researchers. A key issue at the summit will be the need for aid groups to adapt to fast-changing realities in growing cities in the developing world.

• The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) is investigating a case related to the secret recording in which a top Peruvian politician states that he laundered US$15 million for leading presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori in a previous campaign, reports InSight Crime. Fujimori says the allegations are part of a smear campaign, three weeks ahead of the runoff election in which she will face off against Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, reports Reuters.

• U.S. and Colombian labor unions filed a complaint with the U.S. Labor department, saying Colombia has failed to enforce worker protections in a free trade agreement with the United States, reports Reuters. The complaint says that nearly 100 Colombian workers and worker advocates have been killed trying to exercise their rights since the U.S.-Colombian trade deal took effect in 2011. The action raises questions about similar provisions in the massive Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, according to Reuters.

• Acting Brazilian President Michel Temer has high hopes for his legacy: he does not plan to run for office again, he told Brazilian media, but instead aims to leave as his administration's legacy "reduction of unemployment in the first place. Second, see a pacified country, with no more divergences across the country," reports the Wall Street Journal.

• Temer's government nominated MIT-trained economist Ilan Goldfajn to head the Central Bank, a move aimed at increasing investor confidence in Brazil, reports the Wall Street Journal. Heading off criticism about his all-male cabinet, Temer will replace the head of the government's giant development bank, BNDES, with a female economist, Maria Silvia Bastos Marques, reports the Wall Street Journal separately.

• The suspension of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is causing some diplomatic waves in the region from leftist governments who are refusing to recognize the interim government, including Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia and El Salvador, reports Reuters.

• The head of Brazil's largest steelmaker, Gerdau SA, has been accused by police of of corruption-related offenses. His firm allegedly participated in a scheme to evade $428.6 million in taxes, reports the Wall Street Journal.
• Former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is facing a series of criminal allegations that could mean jail time if she is found guilty. At the very least, it means years of court cases that could hurt her chances of eventually running for office again, reports the Wall Street Journal. Kirchner dismisses the probes as politically motivated. (See yesterday's briefs.)

• Current Argentine President Mauricio Macri is under investigation for alleged ties to offshore companies. The prosecutor on the case said he will open up a new line of investigation in the case to follow up on reports in the media over the weekend that the firms are still active — despite the president’s repeated declarations that they were shuttered years ago, reports the Buenos Aires Herald.

• There's a regional trend of judicialized politics, argues Pablo Stefanoni in Le Monde Diplomatique. He analyzes the cases of Guatemala, Brazil and Bolivia. 

• The last three Mexican soldiers accused of homicide in the so-called "Tlatlaya Massacre" were were absolved of charges of homicide, cover-up and alteration of evidence. The 2014 case, in which at least a dozen suspected gang members were killed after surrendering, is seen as an emblematic case of human rights abuses by security forces in Mexico, reports the Associated Press. (See posts for Oct. 6 and July 2, 2015.)

• The governor of Mexico's Nuevo León state, Jaime Rodríguez, is challenging a large portion of the incentives promised by the previous state government to woo a $2.5 billion new assembly plant by South Korean Kia Motors firm, reports the Wall Street Journal. Officials say the incentive package amounts to nearly 28 percent of the investment by Kia and its suppliers. Manufacturing executives and federal officials are worried about how the face-off could affect the auto industry.

• Teachers in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas will start an indefinite strike next Sunday, in rejection of education reform and demanding the rehiring of teachers laid off for refusing to take part in performance evaluations, reports Prensa Latina.

• A second Mexican judge has ruled that the extradition of drug kingpin Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán to the U.S. could move forward, reports the Associated Press. Cartel telenovela viewers shouldn't get excited yet though. Check out Alejandro Hope's El Daily Post column from last week explaining why these judicial decisions don't mean any immediate action. (See May 10's briefs.)

• Why is criminal violence on a sharp upward trend in Mexico? Alejandro Hope analyzes some potential causes, such as accelerated gang fragmentation, the U.S. heroin epidemic, too many emergencies spreading federal troops thin over the country, and a decline in 2011-2014 violence statistics that was more about local dynamics than national.

• A pioneering deal between two private companies will export wind-generated electricity from Uruguay to Argentina, reports Wind Power Monthly.

• A toxic algal bloom in Chile has affected thousands of fishermen's livelihoods, and poisoned dozens of people, in what is being described as the country's worst environmental crisis in recent years, reports the Guardian. The "red tide" is attributed to warm waters caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon, but may have been exacerbated by salmon industry practices, including the dumping of rotting salmon in the open ocean and pileups of salmon feces and food on the seafloor.

• Not strictly Latin America news, but former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has an interesting opinion piece in Nueva Sociedad, arguing for a new Bretton Woods type agreement to help regulate sovereign debt payments.

Venezuela's new state of emergency, U.S. intelligence fears violence (May 16, 2016)

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro declared a 60-day state of emergency on Friday afternoon, reports the Guardian. However it is not clear what powers the decree grants to him, notes Reuters. He also extended a state of economic emergency to protect the country from foreign and domestic "threats." Maduro blamed the situation on plots from within the OPEC country and from the U.S. to topple his leftist government.

The country is in the grips of an acute economic crisis, with a predicted contraction of 8 percent this year, a forecast of 700 percent inflation. Shortages of price-controlled food, medicines and imports have led to protests around the country. Energy shortages have led to a reduced official work week and rolling blackouts. (See April 28's post, for example.)

U.S. intelligence officials said on Friday that the U.S. is increasingly concerned about the potential for an economic and political meltdown in Venezuela, reports Reuters. The officials, who briefed a small group of journalists, worry the country's worsening crisis could lead to violence, reports the Wall Street Journal. 

Maduro is unlikely to complete his term, which ends in 2018, said the senior officials, who expressed doubt that Maduro would allow a recall referendum this year. They did not rule out the possibility of a military coup, though they said there was no evidence of any active plotting or that he had lost support from the country's generals.


They said another possibility for his ouster could be a "palace coup" led by associates close to him, notes the WSJ.

On Saturday Maduro threatened to use the new emergency decree to seize idle factories, reports the New York Times. "An idle plant is a plant the people will take," he reportedly said at a rally. "We will take all the actions necessary to activate production, which is being paralyzed by the bourgeoisie."

Today Venezuela's Vice-President Aristobulo Isturiz ruled out the possibility of a recall referendum against Maduro, reports the BBC. He said the opposition had "acted too late, had done it wrong and had committed fraud." (See April 27's post and May 3's briefs.)

A demonstration last week demanding the Electoral Commission move forward in the verification of signatures demanding a recall ended in stone-throwing and tear gas. (See last Thursday's briefs.)

The economic crisis is a domestic matter, said a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman when asked about the possibility of aid for the South American country, reports Reuters. Venezuela has received about $50 billion in Chinese financing since 2007. Investors hope for financial relief from China or an easing of the terms of a major loan pact by which Venezuela borrows money and repays in shipments of oil and fuel.

The crisis has had an acute effect on the health system: the death rate among babies under a month old in public hospitals increased by a hundred percent since 2012, to 2 percent. New mothers die at almost five times the rate they did a few years ago, according to a government report cited in the New York Times. The piece vividly portrays the desperate effects of a health system that is out of supplies, from paper and water, to medicine.

Efecto Cocuyo analyzes what the last state of emergency wrought in Táchira, Zulia, Apure and Amazonas last year when certain civil rights were suspended for 120 days.

News Briefs

• Partial results from the Dominican Republic's presidential election yesterday seem to indicate an easy reelection for President Danilo Medina, reports Reuters. Results from 18 percent of polling stations show him leading with 62 percent of the vote. Voters seem to have been swayed by a surging economy and social projects, despite accusations of corruption. (See Friday's briefs.)

• Negotiators for the Colombian government and the rebel FARC group announced an agreement to immediately demobilize child soldiers under 15 years of age, and to develop an exit program for those between 15 and 18 years of age, reports the New York Times. The minors will be part of a special program to ease their transition into civilian life, and will also be assisted by Unicef and the International Organization for Migration, reports the BBC.

• At la Silla Vacía, Juanita León analyzes the changing discourse of FARC negotiator Iván Márquez and how that evolution points to a nearing final peace deal.

• Colombian authorities say they have seized about 8 tons of cocaine, the biggest such capture in the country's history, reports the Associated Press.

• An Argentine judge indicted former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, as well as prominent officials from her administration, on charges of manipulating the nation's Central Bank during the final months of her mandate, reports the New York Times. She is accused of the crime of "unfaithful administration," reports the Wall Street Journal. They are accused of entering into contracts to sell the Central Bank's dollars at below-market rates to shore up the Argentine peso, which allegedly cost the country billions of dollars. The criminal complaint that led to proceedings was filed by lawmakers in the governing coalition of the new president, Mauricio Macri and Kirchner has dismissed the case as political.

• Kirchner has been indicted, Chilean President Michele Bachelet's ratings are plunging, and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's been suspended to face impeachment proceedings: what's happened to South America's powerful women, asks a New York Times piece. "Gender, analysts say, is not the cause of the leaders’ current problems. But, they add, the collective decline of the three women points to a persistence of macho attitudes in the region, especially within the political establishment."

• The lead up to Rousseff's impeachment trial has cast an international spotlight on the Brazilian Congress, which a cast of nearly 600 characters. More than half of the members of Congress face legal challenges, from cases in auditing court involving public contracts to serious counts like kidnapping or murder, according to Transparency Brazil, a corruption monitoring group, reports the New York Times. Part of the problem, according to the piece, is the country's chaotic party system. "... Most of the parties embrace no ideology or agenda and are simply vehicles for patronage and graft. In a typical four-year term, one in three federal legislators will switch parties, some more than once."

• Though Brazil's acting President Michel Temer says his main goal is to stabilize the country's economy in order to attract investment (see Friday's briefs and Thursday's post), he must also salvage the upcoming Olympics and convince international observers of the country's seriousness, reports the Washington Post.

• The Cuban town of Viñales is thriving with "cuentapropistas" thanks to a tourism boom, reports the Miami Herald.

• The so-called "Queen of the Pacific," cartel leader Sandra Ávila Beltrán, is out of jail and gives insight into the workings of the drug trafficking world in an interview with the Guardian.

• In a CityLab piece I analyze how organized crime is increasingly taking over municipal governments or threatening them. The piece quotes InSight Crime's Jeremy McDermott who blames the trend on the spread of organized crime throughout the region. Violence against mayors is a particular problem in Mexico, where over the past decade, 37 mayors, seven mayors-elect, and 31 former mayors have been assassinated.

• The world's smallest porpoise, the vaquita, is edging closer to extinction. There are only about 60 of them left. They are the collateral damage of a booming illegal market for the swim bladder of a large, endangered fish called the totoaba, which is considered a delicacy in China. Though the Mexican Navy has been working to preserve the porpoise, it has been no match for the international traffickers who have collaborated with local organized crime groups to pay fishermen thousands of dollars for each totoaba bladder, reports the New York Times.

Colombia gears up for a Plebiscite for Peace (May 13, 2016)

Colombia's government and FARC rebel group negotiators agreed yesterday to legal mechanisms that will make an eventual peace deal constitutionally binding, if approved by a popular referendum, reports Reuters. (See yesterday's briefs.)

Yesterday's agreement would protect the final peace deal from future governments and legal challenges that could stall its implementation, reports Silla Vacía. Such an agreement aims to reassure wary guerrilla leaders that the deal will not be reneged on after their disarmament, no matter who inhabits the presidential palace.

The government must present a bill to modify the Constitution to include an eventual deal by May 18, reports CNN. International organizations will also be invited to monitor the agreement's implementation.

The agreement announced yesterday would actually make an eventual deal part of the international Geneva Conventions for Colombian law, explains La Vanguardia. The final deal would be considered a Special Humanitarian Agreement, explains Publimetro.

The two sides have been negotiating an agreement since 2012 to end nearly five decades of fighting that have killed thousands and displaced millions in the country.

Yesterday's announcement marks the beginning of several legal debates, but the end of an ongoing FARC demand for a Constituent Assembly to approve an eventual deal, according to Silla Vacía. It's a victory for the government negotiators, reports El Colombiano.

The government has refused to budge on the demand for a plebiscite. The FARC had been long opposed to a referendum to ratify the peace deal, fearing anti-guerilla sentiments in the general population. They also argued that a Constituent Assembly was needed to give the pact a legal degree of protection. The government rejected the proposal out of fear that the entire negotiation would be up for review in such a case, reports Silla Vacía.

The gridlock was lifted last week, when FARC leaders indicated their acceptance of a plebiscite. (See yesterday's briefs.)

The actual referendum itself is more of a popular consultation, in which citizens will be asked to approve or disprove the deal put forth by the government, explains Publimetro.

Citizen support for a "yes" vote in the embattled Valle de Cauca region is increasing, as is the percentage of the population that would participate in the vote, reports Noticias Caracol.

As part of a series of measures meant to assure FARC fighters of their safety in an eventual disarmament, the Colombian government is stepping up efforts to crack down on criminal groups formed after a 2006 right-wing paramilitary disarmament, reports Reuters.

While the goal of former President Álvaro Uribe's call to "civil resistance" against the peace negotiation is not completely clear, in practice, it will likely coalesce into a "no" campaign for the referendum, reports la Silla Vacía separately.

News Briefs

• The Dominican Republic has presidential elections this weekend, and President Danilo Medina appears to be cruising towards re-election. He may even garner over 50 percent on Sunday and avoid a second-round election, reports the Associated Press. The beginning of his administration was divisive, Medina increased sales tax and university fees implemented to close the budget deficit. But the country's GDP growth of 7 percent is the best in Latin America and the Caribbean and people are pleased with pubic spending.

• Acting Brazilian President Michel Temer came in with calls for unity and said his primary task was to form a government of "national salvation" that could restore the country's credibility and attract investment. (See yesterday's post.) Any sense of a new dawn in Brazilian politics will quickly bump up against the difficult reality of economic and political crisis, warns the Wall Street Journal. The new interim president must quickly enact economic policies and maintain the backing of a divided Congress and public, reports the Wall Street Journal in another piece.

• Temer will be assisted by a brand-new, all-male, conspicuously white cabinet, reports the Guardian. Temer's cabinet choices are in keeping with predictions of a rightward shift in Brazilian government, reports the New York Times. He named a soybean tycoon who deforested tracts of the Amazon to be his agriculture minister. His first pick for the science ministry is a creationist, who instead wound up as trade minister. He pick for human rights, a female, favored legislation that would complicate access to abortion for rape victims. He instead demoted the human rights ministry to a second tier within the Ministry of Justice.

• New Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles said his top priority is to bring clarity to public finances and that tax increases could be in the offing, reports Reuters. He said the government needs to reduce spending and be more transparent to jump start a contracting economy, according to the Wall Street Journal.

• Like Brazil doesn't have enough commotion at the moment, a public health specialist writing in the Harvard Public Health review, argues for the upcoming Rio de Janeiro Olympic games to be cancelled in order to avoid spreading Zika further around the world. "Mass migration into the heart of an outbreak is a public health no-brainer.  And given the choice between accelerating a dangerous new disease or not—for it is impossible that Games will slow Zika down—the answer should be a no-brainer for the Olympic organizers too."

• Rousseff's ouster sent shockwaves throughout the region, "where Brazil was once viewed as an emerging economic power and the model for a new form of leftist rule, matching support for big business with muscular social-welfare programs to alleviate poverty and nurture a new middle class," reports the Washington Post. Argentina's government rushed to show its support for the new Brazilian government, reports the Buenos Aires Herald. While the Venezuelan government condemned the impeachment as U.S. backed coup, reports Reuters.

• City University professor Carolina Matos rejects the "end of the pink tide" narrative in a Guardian op-ed. "The exaggerated claims of the demise of Latin America's leftwing parties have been an easy, and lazy, attempt to dismiss the political forces that struggle for more justice and more democracy," she writes. Analyzing what has happened in Brazil, she argues that setbacks occurred because the New-Labour style governance failed to "conduct political reform or to respond to the corrupt practices of some of their own members, while simultaneously creating the means to grant more autonomy to federal policy and the justice system in their fight against corruption."

• If Latin America isn't becoming more American, maybe the U.S. will move towards the regional political norm. A piece in Foreign Affairs by Omar G. Encarnación compares presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to Latin American caudillos, and argues that the rise of populism in the U.S. is intimately linked to a widening inequality gap. "A cursory review of the legacy of caudillismo offers a window into what a Trump presidency might portend for the United States. The picture is decidedly dark; caudillismo rests at the very heart of Latin America’s most serious ills—from political violence, to economic backwardness, to the creeping authoritarianism still found in many of the region's democracies. Not surprisingly, many Latin Americans have greeted the arrival of what they have termed "Trumpismo" with a mix of knowing and apprehension."

• U.S. immigration officials plan to crack down on the latest wave of Central American migration which has made its way to the country over the past couple of years, many fleeing gang violence at home.  immigration agents are mainly targeting young mothers with small children, and unaccompanied youths who turned 18 after they entered the U.S., reports NPR. (See yesterday's briefs on an Inter-American Commission on Human Rights recommendation against the deportation of a Salvadoran woman and her 12-year-old daughter from the U.S.)

• The third meeting of the U.S.-Cuba bilateral commission will be next Monday. It serves as the steering committee for the rapprochement process, reports the Miami Herald.

• A truckload of supplies delivered to Haiti's biggest public hospital will not be enough to end a resident doctors strike, reports the Associated Press. Resident doctors have refused to take new patients since late March, saying the government doesn't provide adequate resources or pay them fairly.

• Venezuela lost it's latest court case against Delaware-registerd website "DolarToday," which publishes a black-market dollar-bolivar exchange rate the government says is undermining the economy and fueling inflation, reports the Miami Herald.

• A new map combines satellite imagery with previously untapped native knowledge to show areas where indigenous groups live in Central America and where forest is still preserved. The goal is to help tribes and communities hold their own in negotiations over land threatened with development, reports Reuters.

• Medellín miracle theory: infamous drug lord Pablo Escobar helped create the conditions that led to the city's famed revival, by taking it to the brink of collapse, according to the Guardian. "It might seem a little unorthodox to consider one of the world’s most powerful and violent criminals an urban planner, but to ignore his role in the story of Medellín's development would be to grossly distort history."

Patrick Chappatte - International New York Times